What a week! PS5 is at an impressive level. Seems like Sony massively understocked in Japan, demand is sky high!

So I’m going to make an analysis for all the evergreen titles and predict where they will land lifetime!

This is actual a pessimistic one I did to prove a point

Smash sold thru Retail 151k this year (W2-13)
Smash sold thru Retail 127k last year (W2-13)


FY20: 900k
FY21: 740k + Q4

So let’s say if Q4 is 160k and hits 900k that is 5.33mil. It’s already doing about the same as last year, but I’ll lower it for you... and then drop it 40% YoY after that

FY22: 600k
FY23: 360k
FY24: 215k
FY25: 100k

That’s 6.5mil

I think SSBU will become the third best selling game in japan, possibly 2nd o.O

Monster Hunter say's step aside 3D Mario I'm the king.

Red and Blue? Blue launched later. Is this Red, Green and Blue, or where is Green?

Also, I think MK8DX can outsell GS if it's legs continue like that and MK9 doesn't release on the Switch.

Yes your right it’s RG, I alsways get confused lol. Imma do a MK one later. That one has legs for life

I personally don’t know what to think of the PS5’s future performance. Sure, it’s significantly better now. But what about 2-3 years from now? Or 4-5 years? It’s interesting because:

1) software sales don’t appear to align with the hardware sales in Japan. Not a single PS5 in the top 30. Sure you can say “no digital,” but you can say that with  a good amount of the games in the top 30, especially Nintendo games in which they don’t disclose digital sales on the weekly charts.

2) Will games like RE8, FFXVI, etc., make enough of a difference to maintain pace above PS4? The PS4 had all the big third party titles from Japan and it just missed the 10 million mark in terms of hardware sales. How does that happen? Especially when the Switch is completely out lapping the entire competition. And it’s not like games like DQ, FF, or MH are some nice quality franchises. Some would argue that their prestige is up there with the Mario’s and Pokémon’s in Japan. So much that we usually expect LTD sales in at least 1-2 million for new entries in these respective franchises. And now you have smaller Japanese titles no longer ignoring the Switch and the sales potential behind that user base.

I guess the main goal would be to have the PS5 above 10 million LTD in Japan. But even then, I don’t know if that’s a guarantee. We’ll just have to see if hardware sales legs will last for PS5 beyond the launch year period.

So how much did Balan Wonderworld bomb? A LOT!

01./00. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise # (Capcom) {2021.03.26} (¥7.990) – 1.302.132 / NEW


Does the 6% count promotional giveaways? For example, you are a twitch or youtube streamer and Capcom gave you a free copy of Monster Hunter Rise, would that be counted in the 100%?

It's an estimate of sales based on reports from the stores. Famitsu doesn't track online stores (some) and Nintendo Store.

Imagine what Switch and MH Rise physical numbers would be like if there was more supply of both. I doubt either is meeting demand right now.

Still, great numbers for both.