It’s won’t be a “It’s Tbone so it has to be true” kinda prediction. We are talking about not only overcoming the DS, but selling wayyy past it. 

DS and GB/GBC shipped about 33mil in Japan... next highest?? 3DS at third place with 25.5mil lifetime.

im asking for about 6-7mil more Sales then DS did in the land of Japan.

NSW sales so far (sell thru Famitsu)

2017: 3.41mil

2018: 3.48mil

2019: 4.49mil

2020: 5.96mil

Almost 4 years and the sell Thru tracked is about 17.4mil. Shipments at this time (end of dec) is 18.8mil. This means a possibility that a peak year in shipments this year will surpass 3ds lifetime with 4 years and 10months.

I think it’ll happen and you should too. My prediction for years to come (sell thru is famitsu) but the added number is for NSW sell Thur from untracked retailers such as Mynintendostore..

Quick estimation

2021: 6.20mil peak)

2022: 5.20mil

2023: 3.70mil

2024: 3.20mi

2025: 1.20mil

2026+ 500k+

Sell Thur 38mil but 2mil not tracked

your thoughts???

Too bold imo, but you're Tbone so I won't underestimate this prediction lol.

I with you in that Switch can definitely pass DS in Japan. But I'm not thinking 40M, more like 35M. Since that's not an option, I went with 34M.

Yup.

Tbh with Splatoon 3 signaling Nintendo were serious on this being the middle of the Switch's life this is very achievable we haven't even had a price cut for the platform yet we will definitely have DQXII on the platform as well. Splatoon 3's announcement feels like the launch of the second half of the NS' life.

It probably will reach 30M, it maybe reach 35M, but 40M? I have doubts.

35-36M

40? 

Yeah, I'll go with 34 million, 40 just seems out of reach for any video game console, but I would like to be proven wrong.

^ basically me

Hmm 40 million that is almost one for every three people in Japan. I think I'll go with the more "conservative" 34 million