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Forums - Sales Discussion - January NPD 2021

RolStoppable said:
Jranation said:

Congrats to Switch again! RFA in top 10 is amazing to see. People staying fit and healthy!
And you love to see Just Dance beating Cyberpunk (which dropped massively)

And has TlOU2 (The game of the year in 2020) been charting at all? It's not even in the top 10 for Playstation.

NPD's revenue chart (all platforms) for the past 12 months (February 2020 to January 2021) has TLoU Part II in 6th place, ahead of Ghost of Tsushima in 7th.

Wow they are both really close to each other (or not). Seems like GOT got the better legs. Until they announce the PS5 version then it will probably start ranking high again.  



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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RolStoppable said:
SilenceDeadly said:

As precited Ps5 will be breaking all records going forward as Stock stabilises.

Will be a rought few years for the Nintendo elitist on this site, 2nd in SW forever, soon enough 2nd in HW for a very long time.

2nd Place fits you well.

Enjoy it.

Getting points in the revenue category is hollow when inflation is a thing.

It's worth mentioning that since fiscal year ending March 2020 Sony has changed their reporting method for software shipments to include digital-only games.

It's doubtful that the PS5 can beat Switch in yearly hardware sales anytime soon.

Your recent thread about PS's alleged software domination showed how desperate you are. As did your comments in December when you were sure that VGC was undertracking the PS5, only for it to be confirmed later on that VGC's tracking was in the right ballpark.

Why would inflation be a thing?  The comparison is using constant dollars.  If inflation was part of the equation, Matt would have highlighted that.  The PS5 can easily win a couple NPD months this year when their stock situation improves, the demand is there.  That can also be the catalyst for the console to beat the Switch starting in 2022.



Train wreck said:

Why would inflation be a thing?  The comparison is using constant dollars.  If inflation was part of the equation, Matt would have highlighted that.  The PS5 can easily win a couple NPD months this year when their stock situation improves, the demand is there.  That can also be the catalyst for the console to beat the Switch starting in 2022.

Because a dollar today isn't worth as much as it was ten years ago. Piscatella commonly posts rather random stats that don't mean all that much once they've been put in proper context. In this case he might have said what he did about the PS5 because it sold fewer units than the PS4 in January 2014.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

I miss the days we got actual numbers from NPD and didn't have to wait for potential leaks.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Jranation said:

Congrats to Switch again! RFA in top 10 is amazing to see. People staying fit and healthy!
And you love to see Just Dance beating Cyberpunk (which dropped massively)

And has TlOU2 (The game of the year in 2020) been charting at all? It's not even in the top 10 for Playstation.

Ring Fit  increased because the chart is revenue based and the game retails higher than most standard games in the top 10, so post holiday if its sales were flat or down, it will bring more revenue than other games, hence it being higher due to that.  Also with Take-Two not reporting digital for NBA2k and GTA V, it skews the top 10 even more.



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mk7sx said:

With current information:

381K < NSW JAN 2021 < 466K​
217K < PS5 JAN 2021 < 424K​
PS5 JAN 2021 < NSW JAN 2021
XBS ???
Hope we get leaks soon on Era.  
VGC has 3 weeks recorded for Jan.
NSW - 267K
PS5 - 193K
So I think both are a little under-tracked even once the 4th week is added in (3wk avg would put them at 356K NSW and 257K PS5).

Switch at 380k at an ASP of $270 as base for everything that follows: $102.6m.

PS5 at an ASP of $480 for a total of $120m: 250k. (PS5 SKU split 4:1 in favor of standard model.)

XSX|S at an ASP of $420 for a total of $90m: 214k. (XSX|S SKU split 3:2 in favor of Series X, because it seems evident that Microsoft has produced more Series S than Sony did of the PS5 Digital Edition.)

Revenue sum: 102.6m + 120m +90m = 312.6m

That leaves only $6.4m for the other remaining hardware: PS4, XB1, 3DS, whatever else is recorded by NPD. Could be too small of a rest, in which case XSX|S could be estimated to be 190k at the ASP mentioned above to free up $10m for last gen hardware.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Switch that high in units without lifting a finger. 2021 will BEAST



These NPD reports are so messed up now, I feel like I'm reading tea leaves.  Where are the numbers?

The top 20 is a mess for so many reasons.  Some games include physical only.  Some include physical + digital.  Some games include PC sales and others don't.  Most third party games combine sales of all platforms, but Minecraft only lists the PS4 version.  You could randomly arrange the order of the 20 top games and it would be just as likely to be correct as what they are currently giving.

Then there are the random Piscatella lines like these:
"Unit sales of Nintendo Switch were the highest of any platform in a January month since the Nintendo Wii in January 2010."
"PlayStation 5 was the best-selling hardware platform in dollars sold in January, with the highest dollar sales total for a January month since the Nintendo Wii in January 2009."

One random fact is in unit sales and the other random fact is in dollars.  Why?  Does this actually tell us anything useful?  It's definitely not consistent.  Maybe Piscatella is trying to be a game designer himself?  He wants us to solve the mystery NPD report.  If you can figure out the actual hardware numbers, then you'll move on to stage 2 which is figuring out the software numbers.



trunkswd said:

I miss the days we got actual numbers from NPD and didn't have to wait for potential leaks.

:(



The_Liquid_Laser said:

These NPD reports are so messed up now, I feel like I'm reading tea leaves.  Where are the numbers?

The top 20 is a mess for so many reasons.  Some games include physical only.  Some include physical + digital.  Some games include PC sales and others don't.  Most third party games combine sales of all platforms, but Minecraft only lists the PS4 version.  You could randomly arrange the order of the 20 top games and it would be just as likely to be correct as what they are currently giving.

Then there are the random Piscatella lines like these:
"Unit sales of Nintendo Switch were the highest of any platform in a January month since the Nintendo Wii in January 2010."
"PlayStation 5 was the best-selling hardware platform in dollars sold in January, with the highest dollar sales total for a January month since the Nintendo Wii in January 2009."

One random fact is in unit sales and the other random fact is in dollars.  Why?  Does this actually tell us anything useful?  It's definitely not consistent.  Maybe Piscatella is trying to be a game designer himself?  He wants us to solve the mystery NPD report.  If you can figure out the actual hardware numbers, then you'll move on to stage 2 which is figuring out the software numbers.

Exclusion of Take-Two and Nintendo digital really makes the software chart useless.  

IE GTA V just had its 2nd best selling year ever and ACNH just sold 31M in 9 months but we don't really get that narrative with any of the charts for the past year.  It's a poor picture of the market.