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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - I'm beginning to think Switch's 2021-2023 will mirror Wii's 2011-2012.

And Gamecube's 2005-2006. Nintendo Gamecube, and Wii both had anemic final years in terms of 1st party content. Wii U's 2015 was good, but the Wii U's life cycle was obviously cut short. Besides, it's 2016 was abysmal with only Fire Emblem x SMT interesting me. I know Nintendo merged handheld and console departments, but it's becoming apparent to me that, that won't help as much as I once thought it would. I don't think Nintendo can keep up with the pace of modern game development anymore. Many series went from 3DS to Switch. 3DS games were a lot easier to make than full Switch games. So the rate of games being launched for former 3DS series should naturally be slower on Switch, than it was on 3DS. This lessens the impact of combining both handheld franchises and console franchises onto a single system. It seems to me that Nintendo has this bad habit of abandoning it's hardware in the later years in order to either give 3rd party developers a chance to sell games, or to work on games for their next console. I get the feeling that they are going to give us a really weak selection of 1st party games for 2021, 2022, and 2023, followed by the launch of Switch 2 in Spring 2023. I'm talking about 1 to 2 big releases a year. Normally, I wouldn't be so pessimistic, but Coronavirus has really thrown a wrench into Nintendo's plans. Nintendo can't adapt to Coronavirus for the same reasons their online sucks. They should be able to adapt to a work from home environment, just like we should be able to talk online without the need for a dumb phone app. But Nintendo wants to be Nintendo and do things their way. Doing things their way is the source of what makes their games so great, but it's also the source of a lot of their incompetence. So Coronavirus plagues the world, and all gaming companies slow their development down. Slowdown during this time of crisis is to be expected. I'm not angry about that. Nintendo's game development however slows down significantly more than other game companies' game development. At least that's what I suspect is going on at Nintendo's offices. I wouldn't be surprised at to discover all game development has ground to a complete halt over at Nintendo right now.

I've been a longtime fan of Nintendo, but for years now I've played this game of false hope. Wii U was cut short, and 2016 was terrible for 1st party content on it. Gamecube was anemic with 1st party content 2005-2006. Wii was anemic with 1st party content 2011-2012. That's 3 consoles where Nintendo didn't commit to their product in the final years.

But then again, perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps Nintendo will pull through with great and frequent 1st party releases for these years. Remember, the title of the thread is "I'm beginning to think", not "I know".

Anyway, how do you guys' think Nintendo's 1st party content for 2021-2023 will go? Draw me a roadmap. Here's my pessimistic as all hell roadmap...

Spring 2021: 3DWorld + Poke'mon Snap. Snap doesn't get very good reviews.

Winter 2021: We're very sorry, but BotW2 is delayed. Here's another Poke'mon game missing half the roster.

Spring 2022: BotW2 finally launches. Nothing else of note launches.

Winter 2022: Bayo 3 limps across the finish line. (Yeah, I know it's 2nd party. I don't think Nintendo will have anything else for that time period.)

Spring 2023: Metroid Prime 4 is a Switch/Switch 2 dual release. Like how BotW was on both Wii U and Switch.

P.S. Odyssey 2 doesn't exist. It's just the fever dream of Nintendo fans.

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 14 January 2021

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Polemic



Cerebralbore101 said:

P.S. Odyssey 2 doesn't exist. It's just the fever dream of Nintendo fans.

Mario Odyssey 2 better be real. Odyssey 1, Mario Kart and Pokemon are the reasons I bought a Switch in the first place. I bought nothing for my Switch in 2020. Some games I am interested in but aren't worth spending $60 on. I'd be happy with a new Pokemon mainline game this year or at least a remake of an older gen. Who knows. Maybe we will finally get Diddy Kong Racing 2 or a new F-Zero.



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God, I hope not.

Nintendo has made tons of money on Switch hardware, and will still sell more. 100 million is a given, and 115-125 is likely. They'll also sell tons of evergreen first-party games. But I don't want the Switch to cut back a lot of first-party software yet, especially after a disappointing 2020.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Oh yeah, reminded me early 2019 posts where, after 1 year of almost no games (in 2018), people started to think that the Switch was doomed. And then bam! 8 exclusives in only one year.

So, no, Nintendo seems to not be able to keep a high momentum of software releases throught the year every year, so they do it every two years. We already have a great lineup of games coming this year, and we're still at january.

As far as I remember:
- Hitman III
- Monster Hunter Rise
- Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury
- New Pokémon Snap
- Persona 5 Strikers
- Monster Hunter Stories
- Bravely Default II
- Ys 6
- Shin Megami Tensei 3 Remastered
- Shin Megami Tensei V
- Disgea 6



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

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The Wii peaked in 2008.  The Switch (probably) peaked in 2020.  Even if Switch is doomed to fall off a cliff, shouldn't it's 2021-2023 performance mirror the Wii's 2009-2011 performance?



SKMBlake said:

Oh yeah, reminded me early 2019 posts where, after 1 year of almost no games (in 2018), people started to think that the Switch was doomed. And then bam! 8 exclusives in only one year.

So, no, Nintendo seems to not be able to keep a high momentum of software releases throught the year every year, so they do it every two years. We already have a great lineup of games coming this year, and we're still at january.

As far as I remember:
- Hitman III
- Monster Hunter Rise
- Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury
- New Pokémon Snap
- Persona 5 Strikers
- Monster Hunter Stories
- Bravely Default II
- Ys 6
- Shin Megami Tensei 3 Remastered
- Shin Megami Tensei V
- Disgea 6

The problem is that 2020 was even worse than 2018. Nintendo really needs 2021 to be their BAM! year.

Edit: Should probably add Ryza 2, and No More Heroes III to your list of 3rd party games.

I agree that as far as 3rd party content goes 2021 looks amazing. As for Nintendo's 1st party content, I think it will be really anemic in 2021. That's what this thread was about. I think they'll try to get by on 3DWorld port + Poke'mon Snap + Some sort of Poke'mon remake or new game.

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 14 January 2021

So we will get The Last Story 2, a new Xenoblade game, and a new Pandora's Tower plus a new Sin & Punishment? Sounds great to me!



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

SKMBlake said:

Oh yeah, reminded me early 2019 posts where, after 1 year of almost no games (in 2018), people started to think that the Switch was doomed. And then bam! 8 exclusives in only one year.

So, no, Nintendo seems to not be able to keep a high momentum of software releases throught the year every year, so they do it every two years. We already have a great lineup of games coming this year, and we're still at january.

As far as I remember:
- Hitman III
- Monster Hunter Rise
- Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury
- New Pokémon Snap
- Persona 5 Strikers
- Monster Hunter Stories
- Bravely Default II
- Ys 6
- Shin Megami Tensei 3 Remastered
- Shin Megami Tensei V
- Disgea 6

As far as I know, Ys VI is still a PS2/PSP game. Do you mean Ys IX?

I will throw in some hyped games with Shmup fans. Cotton Reboot. R-Type Final 2. For RPGs fans this month is Atelier Ryza 2



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Seems like a strange prediction. If anything Nintendo is looking to have a very strong software year this year and continue its dominance of the video game market. Obviously can't predict longer than this year but Switch should see a very strong next 2-3 years considering how late it will be getting in its life cycle. Still probably 3+ years from being replaced.