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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - I'm beginning to think Switch's 2021-2023 will mirror Wii's 2011-2012.

Cerebralbore101 said:

The problem is that 2020 was even worse than 2018. 

No it was not. Absolutely not.

Overall, it was fine, and 2019 made people forget about 2018, but besides Pokémon and Smash, we didn't get much of great new games. 2 Mario titles (Tennis Aces and Super Mario Party), a Wii U port (Bayonetta 2) and a Yoshi game, which makes it around 6 noticeable games (besides Labo).

In 2020, we got a Pokémon game (Rescue Mission), 2 Mario games (Paper Mario + 3D All Stars), Xenoblade remake, a Wii U port (Pikmin 3), a Zelda game (Hyrule Warriors) and a huuuuge game called Animal Crossing. 

+ clubhouse 51 and Mario Kart Live

So no.



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With the way this quarter's looking like, you'd honestly think the contrary to what the OP affirms.

I'm of the beilef 2021 and 2022 will be stong years in terms of 1st party actually.



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Cerebralbore101 said:
SKMBlake said:

Oh yeah, reminded me early 2019 posts where, after 1 year of almost no games (in 2018), people started to think that the Switch was doomed. And then bam! 8 exclusives in only one year.

So, no, Nintendo seems to not be able to keep a high momentum of software releases throught the year every year, so they do it every two years. We already have a great lineup of games coming this year, and we're still at january.

As far as I remember:
- Hitman III
- Monster Hunter Rise
- Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury
- New Pokémon Snap
- Persona 5 Strikers
- Monster Hunter Stories
- Bravely Default II
- Ys 6
- Shin Megami Tensei 3 Remastered
- Shin Megami Tensei V
- Disgea 6

The problem is that 2020 was even worse than 2018. Nintendo really needs 2021 to be their BAM! year.

Edit: Should probably add Ryza 2, and No More Heroes III to your list of 3rd party games.

I agree that as far as 3rd party content goes 2021 looks amazing. As for Nintendo's 1st party content, I think it will be really anemic in 2021. That's what this thread was about. I think they'll try to get by on 3DWorld port + Poke'mon Snap + Some sort of Poke'mon remake or new game.

Errr, what? Switch’s 2020 literally just beat every home console in history, as far as Nintendo goes, ACNH is the most successful game in the history, demolishing all sub-year records.

When is this strange Nintendo is Doomsday cult going to quit?



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Probably not.

First thing to consider is the 3DS. 3DS launched in 2011, and obviously took away resources. Resources in general were split between two systems.

In 2011, we had...

DS-
Kirby Mass Attack

Wii-
Mario Sports Mix - 2011
Pandora's Tower - 2011
Wii Play: Motion - 2011
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword - 2011
Kirby's Return to Dream Land - 2011
Rhythm Heaven Fever - 2011
Fortune Street - 2011
PokéPark 2: Wonders Beyond - 2011

3DS-
Steel Diver - 2011
Pilotwings Resort - 2011
Nintendogs + Cats
Tetris Axis - 2011
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2011
Star Fox 64 3D - 2011
Pokémon Rumble Blast - 2011
Super Mario 3D Land - 2011
Mario Kart 7 - 2011

Without having to support multiple systems, and preparing for the impending launch of a new one, I'm not sure why on earth you'd expect them to be developing like two games a year for the next 3 years.



A thread like this should have a yearly hardware sales prediction to go along with it.



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Nintendo already had a shit year in 2020 (no, I don't care for sales, nor I do care for Animal Crossing). 2018 has been already a mixed bag, with SSB Ultimate the only major release I cared about.
If they don't bring anything worthwile in 2021 I may as well abandon them. They have only a single pantform now and it's selling like crazy, they literally have no excuses for not supporting it.



Why I think Switch will have a strong second half of its life:

1) Consolidated software teams. While their 3ds teams aren't used to making HD quality AAA games, having those teams work on their own HD games and/or joining already established HD teams will only enable them to produce faster output of games than Wii U.

2) Because they don't have two devices, they can't rely on one remaining relevant while they focus on the next generation. In the past, they could abandon one in order to have a good launch of the next big device, all the while relying on newer games to come out on their other device. They abandoned Wii U for Switch, but relied on 3DS sales in the meantime and kept making games for it. They abandoned Wii to make the Wii U, but relied on DS and eventually 3DS sales. They can't do that now since they have a unified platform, nor does it make business sense to do so. Because of this, I predict that the Switch will, in fact, have some of the best last 2-3 years a console life in Nintendo hardware history and I also predict Switch 2 will have a difficult first year in terms of quantity of quality games unless my below prediction happens.

3) I personally think Nintendo will try to stretch this generation out to at least 7 years before launching Switch 2 because of the unified team. They will need more time to develop year one games for Switch 2 to be successful at launch, so making years 4-6 very good in quantity and making year 7 slow down so they can focus on Switch 2 will help them with that.

4) I don't think Covid-19 is going away. The virus will continue to mutate and vaccines will be worthless in a year (my prediction). Everyone will continue to freak out and self-isolate, making the video game market continue to explode, particularly for Nintendo because their games are quite stress relieving. Because of this, Switch hardware sales will continue to be higher than Nintendo expects and they will decide to make even more software for it, particularly if they go to year 7 without another device.



Nintendo has already released most of its heavy hitters by now. Considering they still have to release a couple of WiiU ports, plus Botw2 and Pokemon Snap, and assuming we'll get a Mario Odyssey 2, a Pokemon remake and/or a new gen and a Fire Emblem title, they really don't have that many heavy hitters left to sell new hardware. By the end of this year, most people who wanted a Switch will have bought one.

I mean, it's fine by me, most of the games I'm interested in for the Switch are 3rd parties anyway, but I do wonder whether this will make Nintendo bother with a Super Switch or whatever the upgraded version might be called. I can absolutely see a cheap TV only version including a pair of joycons, though.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

One quick reason why it won’t happen:

There’s no other system other than the Switch on the market for Nintendo and there’s no signs of a need for a replacement for at least a couple of years. So there’s still no need for a transition in development.



True thats why 2021 will be an increase over 2020



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