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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

Less than 15 million 52 5.36%
 
15.0 - 17.4 million 56 5.77%
 
17.5 - 19.9 million 97 10.00%
 
20.0 - 22.4 million 217 22.37%
 
22.5 - 24.9 million 176 18.14%
 
25.0 - 27.4 million 165 17.01%
 
27.5 - 29.9 million 71 7.32%
 
30.0 - 32.4 million 61 6.29%
 
32.5 - 35.0 million 11 1.13%
 
More than 35 million 64 6.60%
 
Total:970

My predictions 

  • Switch to sell over 30 million units
  • Software sales to DOUBLE YoY on the Switch
  • Breath of the Wild 2 to be the biggest console exclusive launch of all time(if it makes 2021)
  • Monster Hunter Rise to be the fastest selling 3rd Party on the Nintendo ecosystem of all time
  • China to become 3rd largest country in terms of Nintendo Switch ownership(both official and gray market)
  • East Asia & Japan to be the growth engine YoY

Based on this Q's results and the trends we notice in the coming months I think I will make a revision but that's my view as of right now. 

- New Horizon, Ring Fit, Monster Hunter Rise will continue to drive the major growth in East Asia

- A very strong line-up of titles that can sell multiple millions across the World with strong WoM for H1 - Bowser's Fury, Momotaro, Sakuna, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5, Bravely Default 2, Stories 2 etc

- unlike last year production & supply chains would not be disrupted by COVID because of the adaption to the new reality and diversification of Nintendo's supply chain 

- Summer and fall lineups where we have nothing officially dated, expecting at least two HUGE titles H2(Breath of the Wild 2 & Pokemon)

- Expecting a ton of mid-range efforts from Nintendo, Pokemon(Snap) & 3rd Parties - there will be x2 YOY compared to titles that launched physically on the Switch in 2020 

- Switch being the default platform for AA & indies giving it a strong competitive advantage with timed exclusivity for games like Hades, Among Us, SilkSong etc 

- Switch Pro and/or pricecut 

bonus i cant make up my mind between Breath of the Wild 2, Bayonetta 3 & SilkSong 
Last edited by noshten - on 04 January 2021

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RolStoppable said:
xPhenom08x said:

Somewhere between 23 to 25 million. Joins DS as the only platforms in history to have more than two 20 million years right?

No, the Wii had two calendar years above 20m. I am unsure about the PS2, it could have had either one or two years above 20m, but we only have Sony's funky shipment data from back then; Sony didn't report sales to retailers, but rather production, so deriving sell-through from Sony's PS2 shipment data includes some additional guesswork.

My bad, I actually meant atleast 3. My wording is just confusing. I have read both Wii and PS2 had atleast two years of 20 and up. 



Around 25 millions. If they give it a good price cut, big software and revision, then it should be 26-28 millions. If they let loose again this year and only cut the price by 50$ and no revision, then I would see it more around 23 to 25 millions.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

I think the sales throughout the year will be somewhat slower, but the sales during the holidays, which should have some proper holiday title(s), maybe even a new upgraded model, and finally some price cut, will compensate for most of that.

Thus, my expectation is ~26M

Bonus: Rune Factory 5

Hi @Bofferbrauer2  I agree completely with your message, One variable that I must add to this is that China could make an impact that will push sales beyond what we are used to. I am not sure if it will, but It could certainly offset predictions and push sales maybe to 29-30M. 



noshten said:

My predictions 

  • Switch to sell over 30 million units
  • Software sales to DOUBLE YoY on the Switch
  • Breath of the Wild 2 to be the biggest console exclusive launch of all time(if it makes 2021)
  • Monster Hunter Rise to be the fastest selling 3rd Party on the Nintendo ecosystem of all time
  • China to become 3rd largest country in terms of Nintendo Switch ownership(both official and gray market)
  • East Asia & Japan to be the growth engine YoY

Based on this Q's results and the trends we notice in the coming months I think I will make a revision but that's my view as of right now. 

- New Horizon, Ring Fit, Monster Hunter Rise will continue to drive the major growth in East Asia

- A very strong line-up of titles that can sell multiple millions across the World with strong WoM for H1 - Bowser's Fury, Momotaro, Sakuna, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5, Bravely Default 2, Stories 2 etc

- unlike last year production & supply chains would not be disrupted by COVID because of the adaption to the new reality and diversification of Nintendo's supply chain 

- Summer and fall lineups where we have nothing officially dated, expecting at least two HUGE titles H2(Breath of the Wild 2 & Pokemon)

- Expecting a ton of mid-range efforts from Nintendo, Pokemon(Snap) & 3rd Parties - there will be x2 YOY compared to titles that launched physically on the Switch in 2020 

- Switch being the default platform for AA & indies giving it a strong competitive advantage with timed exclusivity for games like Hades, Among Us, SilkSong etc 

- Switch Pro and/or pricecut 

I agree all of this except for JP driving growth.  I think we'll get a soft bump in the 3-8% for NA/Europe instead, but Japan best case scenario is flat from 2020 > 2021.  Agree that there is still stronger growth potential for East Asia/China, and official sales in Brazil now should help as well for the "Other" bucket.

Switch hardware >30M.

2021 (and 2022) software will be all-time level for any device.

BOTW2 I think can get to a 8-10M launch week(end).  Long term results will depend on reception.



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I voted 25-27.5m.  We don't have all the sales numbers for the current calendar year, but it will probably be somewhere around 28m.  I expect 2020 to be the peak, but 2021 will only have a gradual decline.  And in fact I think Switch will continue to have gradual declines until its successor is released.  Nintendo still has lots of room to offer price cuts and hardware revisions.  On top of that third party software for 2021 is going to be far better than any year for Switch so far.  First party software will continue to be at least as good as 2020 for several years.  Put all of that together and I only see mild YoY declines for Switch each year.

Bonus: Most anticipated game is BotW2.



I guessed 20-22.4M. I think that this was the absolute peak year. From here I would guess 20-22.4M, then next year it will be 15-19M, the year after that will be 9-13M, then less than 5M, then fade out.

That will bring Switch total sales to >126-138M total.



I would say around 20 million but I can def see the Switch crossing the 100 million mark



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

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dmillos said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I think the sales throughout the year will be somewhat slower, but the sales during the holidays, which should have some proper holiday title(s), maybe even a new upgraded model, and finally some price cut, will compensate for most of that.

Thus, my expectation is ~26M

Bonus: Rune Factory 5

Hi @Bofferbrauer2  I agree completely with your message, One variable that I must add to this is that China could make an impact that will push sales beyond what we are used to. I am not sure if it will, but It could certainly offset predictions and push sales maybe to 29-30M. 

That's possible. I'm not sure how big the Impact from China will be later down the road, but I guess growth will continue in that region, especially if there are an increasing number of games being accepted in the country.



22.5 - 24.9 million

BQ: Breath of the Wild 2