Around 25 millions. If they give it a good price cut, big software and revision, then it should be 26-28 millions. If they let loose again this year and only cut the price by 50$ and no revision, then I would see it more around 23 to 25 millions.

Hi @Bofferbrauer2  I agree completely with your message, One variable that I must add to this is that China could make an impact that will push sales beyond what we are used to. I am not sure if it will, but It could certainly offset predictions and push sales maybe to 29-30M. 

I agree all of this except for JP driving growth.  I think we'll get a soft bump in the 3-8% for NA/Europe instead, but Japan best case scenario is flat from 2020 > 2021.  Agree that there is still stronger growth potential for East Asia/China, and official sales in Brazil now should help as well for the "Other" bucket.

Switch hardware >30M.

2021 (and 2022) software will be all-time level for any device.

BOTW2 I think can get to a 8-10M launch week(end).  Long term results will depend on reception.

I voted 25-27.5m.  We don't have all the sales numbers for the current calendar year, but it will probably be somewhere around 28m.  I expect 2020 to be the peak, but 2021 will only have a gradual decline.  And in fact I think Switch will continue to have gradual declines until its successor is released.  Nintendo still has lots of room to offer price cuts and hardware revisions.  On top of that third party software for 2021 is going to be far better than any year for Switch so far.  First party software will continue to be at least as good as 2020 for several years.  Put all of that together and I only see mild YoY declines for Switch each year.

Bonus: Most anticipated game is BotW2.

I guessed 20-22.4M. I think that this was the absolute peak year. From here I would guess 20-22.4M, then next year it will be 15-19M, the year after that will be 9-13M, then less than 5M, then fade out.

That will bring Switch total sales to >126-138M total.

I would say around 20 million but I can def see the Switch crossing the 100 million mark

That's possible. I'm not sure how big the Impact from China will be later down the road, but I guess growth will continue in that region, especially if there are an increasing number of games being accepted in the country.

22.5 - 24.9 million

BQ: Breath of the Wild 2

I went with 22.5 - 24.9 million. I think 2020 was Switch's peak year (should end up at 28 million) but I don't think it'll drop too much in 2021. 24 million for 2021 seems reasonable, putting it just over 100 million to end 2021. Covid and Animal Crossing frenzy will be over but Switch is still the hottest thing in the industry in over a decade and with a new model, presumably a much better software lineup in 2021, and maybe a price cut, 2021 should be another blow out year.

I voted 20.0-22.4 million. While I am a firm believer in the Switch's power, I do think that 2020 is the peak, and that the draw of a Zelda Breath of the Wild 2 would be decent, but not substantial. As for other games, you already have the Pokemon fanbase with the console, a sequel to Mario Odyssey wouldn't boost sales dramatically, and most remaining Nintendo franchises are relatively niche and one offs, I mean Metroid's best selling game is Prime at a couple million right? The Smash series gets one entry per console, and that is true for many games. I do however see a consistent Japanese market with the Monster Hunter game coming out.

BQ: I really want another Fire Emblem Remake game to appear. I really liked Shadows of Valencia visually, most of the mechanics, and story, but the map design was horrid, so a remake of an FE game that has better map design is all I ask for.

Why do I think this year? Just cause how they release games really, I mean Awakening was 2012, Fates was 2015, Echoes was 2017, and Three Houses was 2019. The longest gap in the 2010's was between Awakening and Fates at about 3.5 years, Echoes was released a little under two years later, and Three Houses a little more than 2 years after that. So going with either the Fates/Echoes gap or the Echoes/Houses gap that would have it release this year.