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mk7sx on 04 January 2021
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noshten said:

My predictions 

  • Switch to sell over 30 million units
  • Software sales to DOUBLE YoY on the Switch
  • Breath of the Wild 2 to be the biggest console exclusive launch of all time(if it makes 2021)
  • Monster Hunter Rise to be the fastest selling 3rd Party on the Nintendo ecosystem of all time
  • China to become 3rd largest country in terms of Nintendo Switch ownership(both official and gray market)
  • East Asia & Japan to be the growth engine YoY

Based on this Q's results and the trends we notice in the coming months I think I will make a revision but that's my view as of right now. 

- New Horizon, Ring Fit, Monster Hunter Rise will continue to drive the major growth in East Asia

- A very strong line-up of titles that can sell multiple millions across the World with strong WoM for H1 - Bowser's Fury, Momotaro, Sakuna, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5, Bravely Default 2, Stories 2 etc

- unlike last year production & supply chains would not be disrupted by COVID because of the adaption to the new reality and diversification of Nintendo's supply chain 

- Summer and fall lineups where we have nothing officially dated, expecting at least two HUGE titles H2(Breath of the Wild 2 & Pokemon)

- Expecting a ton of mid-range efforts from Nintendo, Pokemon(Snap) & 3rd Parties - there will be x2 YOY compared to titles that launched physically on the Switch in 2020 

- Switch being the default platform for AA & indies giving it a strong competitive advantage with timed exclusivity for games like Hades, Among Us, SilkSong etc 

- Switch Pro and/or pricecut 

I agree all of this except for JP driving growth.  I think we'll get a soft bump in the 3-8% for NA/Europe instead, but Japan best case scenario is flat from 2020 > 2021.  Agree that there is still stronger growth potential for East Asia/China, and official sales in Brazil now should help as well for the "Other" bucket.

Switch hardware >30M.

2021 (and 2022) software will be all-time level for any device.

BOTW2 I think can get to a 8-10M launch week(end).  Long term results will depend on reception.