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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

Less than 15 million 52 5.36%
 
15.0 - 17.4 million 56 5.77%
 
17.5 - 19.9 million 97 10.00%
 
20.0 - 22.4 million 217 22.37%
 
22.5 - 24.9 million 176 18.14%
 
25.0 - 27.4 million 165 17.01%
 
27.5 - 29.9 million 71 7.32%
 
30.0 - 32.4 million 61 6.29%
 
32.5 - 35.0 million 11 1.13%
 
More than 35 million 64 6.60%
 
Total:970

I went with 22.5 - 24.9 million. I think 2020 was Switch's peak year (should end up at 28 million) but I don't think it'll drop too much in 2021. 24 million for 2021 seems reasonable, putting it just over 100 million to end 2021. Covid and Animal Crossing frenzy will be over but Switch is still the hottest thing in the industry in over a decade and with a new model, presumably a much better software lineup in 2021, and maybe a price cut, 2021 should be another blow out year.



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I voted 20.0-22.4 million. While I am a firm believer in the Switch's power, I do think that 2020 is the peak, and that the draw of a Zelda Breath of the Wild 2 would be decent, but not substantial. As for other games, you already have the Pokemon fanbase with the console, a sequel to Mario Odyssey wouldn't boost sales dramatically, and most remaining Nintendo franchises are relatively niche and one offs, I mean Metroid's best selling game is Prime at a couple million right? The Smash series gets one entry per console, and that is true for many games. I do however see a consistent Japanese market with the Monster Hunter game coming out.

BQ: I really want another Fire Emblem Remake game to appear. I really liked Shadows of Valencia visually, most of the mechanics, and story, but the map design was horrid, so a remake of an FE game that has better map design is all I ask for.

Why do I think this year? Just cause how they release games really, I mean Awakening was 2012, Fates was 2015, Echoes was 2017, and Three Houses was 2019. The longest gap in the 2010's was between Awakening and Fates at about 3.5 years, Echoes was released a little under two years later, and Three Houses a little more than 2 years after that. So going with either the Fates/Echoes gap or the Echoes/Houses gap that would have it release this year.



I'll be going for 25.0 - 27.4 million

2020 release schedule was mediocre at best, so if the unlikely event that games that were originally planned to be released in 2020 and were delayed to 2021, it would be a nice boost for a more consistent release schedule. There's also the highly speculated and rumoured Switch "Pro" that will potentially release this year as well, which will also drive Switch sales

And let's not forget that Rune Factory 5 is coming out this year, which is the best game announced so far



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I voted for 25-27m but I think it could be a bit more. I do believe that 2021 would have been Switch's peak year had it not been for the extenuating circumstances of 2020 setting the sales bar so high.

Most anticipated: BOTW2



I do think it'll at least sell 25M due to a better and more consistent release schedule with more than 1 or 2 heavy hitters. Let's not forget that it carries the momentum of tons of leggy hardware sellers with software such as BOTW,RFA, Animal Crossing, MK8DX, Momotaro, etc ...
It is enough for me to expect a long and durable cycle.

It also helps that we have a possible new hardware revision coming for those looking to double dip on better hardware



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