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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2021?

Less than 15 million 52 5.36%
 
15.0 - 17.4 million 56 5.77%
 
17.5 - 19.9 million 97 10.00%
 
20.0 - 22.4 million 217 22.37%
 
22.5 - 24.9 million 176 18.14%
 
25.0 - 27.4 million 165 17.01%
 
27.5 - 29.9 million 71 7.32%
 
30.0 - 32.4 million 61 6.29%
 
32.5 - 35.0 million 11 1.13%
 
More than 35 million 64 6.60%
 
Total:970
PortisheadBiscuit on 04 January 2021

20m



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Qwark on 04 January 2021

I expect growth so lets say 35 million



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

thetonestarr on 04 January 2021

I think this will actually be the Switch's peak year, not 2020. As such, I think we will see sales somewhere from 30 to 32m.



 SW-5120-1900-6153

xPhenom08x on 04 January 2021

Somewhere between 23 to 25 million. Joins DS as the only platforms in history to have more than two 20 million years right?



Link_Nines.XBC on 04 January 2021

I'd say 25-26 million if the line-up is good.

Bonus question: Breath of the Wild's sequel.



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Wman1996 on 04 January 2021

About 22 million. Switch will hit 100 million in Q1 2022.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 67 million (was 60 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

AngryLittleAlchemist on 04 January 2021

30-32.4 million. It will either be Switch's peak year or more or less match FY 2020.



SilenceDeadly on 04 January 2021

Lower than 2020, still highest Console in 2021 and after that it´ll start the normal decline until the next gen system arrives and be 2nd place until 2024/2025.



noshten on 04 January 2021

My predictions 

  • Switch to sell over 30 million units
  • Software sales to DOUBLE YoY on the Switch
  • Breath of the Wild 2 to be the biggest console exclusive launch of all time(if it makes 2021)
  • Monster Hunter Rise to be the fastest selling 3rd Party on the Nintendo ecosystem of all time
  • China to become 3rd largest country in terms of Nintendo Switch ownership(both official and gray market)
  • East Asia & Japan to be the growth engine YoY

Based on this Q's results and the trends we notice in the coming months I think I will make a revision but that's my view as of right now. 

- New Horizon, Ring Fit, Monster Hunter Rise will continue to drive the major growth in East Asia

- A very strong line-up of titles that can sell multiple millions across the World with strong WoM for H1 - Bowser's Fury, Momotaro, Sakuna, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5, Bravely Default 2, Stories 2 etc

- unlike last year production & supply chains would not be disrupted by COVID because of the adaption to the new reality and diversification of Nintendo's supply chain 

- Summer and fall lineups where we have nothing officially dated, expecting at least two HUGE titles H2(Breath of the Wild 2 & Pokemon)

- Expecting a ton of mid-range efforts from Nintendo, Pokemon(Snap) & 3rd Parties - there will be x2 YOY compared to titles that launched physically on the Switch in 2020 

- Switch being the default platform for AA & indies giving it a strong competitive advantage with timed exclusivity for games like Hades, Among Us, SilkSong etc 

- Switch Pro and/or pricecut 

bonus i cant make up my mind between Breath of the Wild 2, Bayonetta 3 & SilkSong 
Last edited by noshten - on 04 January 2021

xPhenom08x on 04 January 2021
RolStoppable said:
xPhenom08x said:

Somewhere between 23 to 25 million. Joins DS as the only platforms in history to have more than two 20 million years right?

No, the Wii had two calendar years above 20m. I am unsure about the PS2, it could have had either one or two years above 20m, but we only have Sony's funky shipment data from back then; Sony didn't report sales to retailers, but rather production, so deriving sell-through from Sony's PS2 shipment data includes some additional guesswork.

My bad, I actually meant atleast 3. My wording is just confusing. I have read both Wii and PS2 had atleast two years of 20 and up.