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Forums - Sales Discussion - RUMOR: PS5 shipments to reach 16.8-18 million units in 2021

Yeah so 2021 will be rough with Sony only producing 18M Ps5 Consoles which is very low for the actual demand.

Ps5 should end 2021 with around 23M sell through. 

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 29 December 2020

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Sony shipped 13.5 million PS4's in 2014. It seems that the PS5 will sell quite a bit more.
23 million units sold for the PS4 didn't happen until mid 2015.

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That doesn't seem to be particularly supply constrained to me. It might be a little tight, but it's not going to be terrible if they can produce 18 million units. I think people may be getting a bit unrealistic with their numbers, based on a couple of very hot years for the Nintendo switch. There's not likely to be demand of much more than 18 million PlayStation 5s, especially considering the price points.

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That doesn't sound too bad. Especially since PS5 will never come close to selling those consoles without scalpers. I think scalpers will have to buy around 10 million of those units for Sony to sell through. Probably more.

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If this is true, this pretty much kills any chance of the PS5 being the best-selling console of 2021. I mean, it was already a tough sell with the Switch doing so well.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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Seems positive to me, like it’s a genuine gen over gen improvement compared to PS4 right?

Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 


I don't see any reason to think that demand is that enormous at this stage, it's impossible to know when a console is supply-constrained at the beginning of its cycle, excess demand can be huge or moderate or even small. We just don't know. What we do know is that the Switch is doing really well and the Xbox Series X seems just as sold out as the PS5 right now (but the Series S is available in most places I look). Competition is likely more fierce compared to the PS4's launch, and there won't be that crazy Corona boost from 2020 either. At its launch price and with a slim library, for now, I don't think over 18 million PS5's would fly off the shelves during 2021, and there's nothing decisive in the market suggesting so from where I'm sitting. But, hey, I could very well be wrong, won't be the first time.

Last edited by Mummelmann - on 29 December 2020

I don't understand? Yes it had a good launch month and December, but those are always good months for consoles anyway because of the holidays. Do we really think if Ps5 launched in March it wouldn't have sold less than it did in November?

Maybe there is enough data to support this argument, but I don't see it? I would be happy if they beat PS4's first year as it means a flourishing gaming industry, but I don't see the ps5 beating ps4 in its first full year.

I am a Nintendo/PC Gamepass guy but I like the whole industry having success and pushing each other so I want Playstation to succeed as well FYI.