By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - RUMOR: PS5 shipments to reach 16.8-18 million units in 2021

18M for first full year is massive.



Around the Network
Dulfite said:
Dallinor said:

If it had launched at any time of year it would have sold out. They sold everything they could ship.

So you don't think there were people out there buying it simply because of the holidays and because of deals? Not a single % of the purchases were made because of either of those two factors? If you think it would have sold the same in March then you must not think anyone bought it for those two reasons.

There were no PS5 deals and the system pretty much sold out the majority of its holiday allotment prior to the November launch. Getting a PS5 was essentially a lottery, of course some lucky people may have got it for partners/family/friends or even themselves as holiday gift but there was clearly many more people who wanted to get the system unrelated to the holiday who couldn't. Even if 10% of PS5 launch sales were holiday driven purchases, there was much more demand unrelated to the holiday which cannot be fulfilled and thus the system will have stock issues until at least spring (highlighted by sony, retailers & analysts)

Whenever this system launched it was going to sell out



Perhaps a bit much, but het the PS4 managed to sell over 13 million units in its first year. The PS5 has a much better lineup than the PS4 in 2014, so Sony predicting more sales isn't unrealistic.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

PotentHerbs said:
dmillos said:

Hi @PotentHerbs 

If you strictly align the first 14 months of both consoles, then yes, it would be ahead of the switch (~16.5M) but it is kind of unfair because the PS5 would have two holiday periods to sell. If we look at what the switch sold its first 12 months and then add the next November and December, the switch sold 22.9M, making it a pretty nice race. 

A good comparison is the first 12 months for both consoles, that way both get the same amount of holidays. In that case, the switch sold 15M in 12 months.

That's a good point. Although I think the PS5 will clear 15+ Million by November 2021. 

Hi @PotentHerbs I think it will probably be a great race, right now the supply constraint makes it difficult to see any kind of pattern, but I hope that the PS5 is able to sell as much as possible, Hopefully supply won't be a deciding factor in this race.

Here is a table of the first 12 months for NS PS4 and PS5:

PS5 took the first November by a considerable amount, December on the other hand seems like it will give back all that advantage.

I think January will start telling us a lot about this race, It seems like Sony is able to produce more than 300k units per week, so if the console keeps selling out, it has a strong chance to beat the NS for January.

March seems pretty much impossible to beat for any console that launches in November. 

Then the rest of the year we could certainly see the PS5 outselling both the NS and PS4 (except for maybe September and October for the PS4)

I'm not sure what happened in September and October for the PS4 but it sold crazy amounts (doubled the NS).

In order to beat 15M it needs to have an average of 1.1M units per month for the remaining 10 months, I think January should tell us a bit more about that being possible.



Would be a pretty impressive first year if they get around that.



Around the Network

Oh, they'll ship it alright. The issue is that half of them won't be activated until 2022 when scalpers start to getting rid of the excess stock. I'm curious to see next years PS5 software attachment rate.



Kristof81 said:

Oh, they'll ship it alright. The issue is that half of them won't be activated until 2022 when scalpers start to getting rid of the excess stock. I'm curious to see next years PS5 software attachment rate.

Hi @Kristof81 this is a great point. Shipments of some of these consoles will be used in January and February. But even so, anything above 16M sold in a second calendar year is amazing.