Bofferbrauer2 said:
That really puts the PS5 sales into perspective. I knew PS4 and PS5 launched much worse than the Wii U, but seeing the PS5 not being able to keep up with it's predecessor truly ain't a good sign so far. |
But what do we know about demand? PS4 launching late in Japan meant better supply
Otter said:
But what do we know about demand? PS4 launching late in Japan meant better supply |
I don't get the supply excuse. Sony produced more PS5 at launch than PS4, but decided to supply less to Japan? The message here is either, that japanese customers don't like PS5 or that Sony doesn't like japan. Either way, that is no good sign.
EDIT: To put the supply argument the other way around: although Sony also had to deliver to japan (which they didn't with PS4), they could supply more PS5 to the US and europe. But still japan numbers are that bad.
Last edited by Mnementh - on 18 December 2020
Famitsu 2020 Top 20 Switch:
TOTAL: 38.088.398
THIRD PARTY TOTAL: 3.984.374
Famitsu 2020 Top 20 3DS:
TOTAL: 52.469.880
THIRD PARTY TOTAL: 23.940.253
Wonder where things will end up by the end of 2022, but Nintendo with digital is selling much more on the Switch than it did on the 3DS. Third parties have a huge opportunity in the coming years to really start to profit from this momentum - as we've seen this holiday with Momotaro. Outside of the Lite model there has been no price cuts for the hardware in Japan, so there is still additional ways for Nintendo to actually keep momentum outside of steady line-up for 2021. Overall the Switch will surpass 3DS hardware by the end of 2022. As I've commented I think despite New Horizon, next year is shaping up to be the peak year for hardware sales for the Switch due to a much more varied line-up that would enable Switch to build up a lead in the first two quarters. Also I doubt the holiday will be lacking a huge game like it was this fall.
In terms of New Horizon, Ring Fit and other evergreens they still have a couple of more years worth of sales within them, only candidate for a sequel is Splatoon and even that is pretty doubtful considering the game hasn't officially launched in China.
Last edited by noshten - on 18 December 2020
Wow, Switch took 28/30 of the top spots. PS5 got completely shut out and PS4 is almost shut out. Japan belongs to Nintendo. Considering that third parties are stepping up on Switch next year, I don't really seem this story changing any time soon.
Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 18 December 2020curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
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| Mnementh said: The message here is either, that japanese customers don't like PS5 or that Sony doesn't like japan. |
Bit of both I expect. Playstation systems have been in decline in Japan since the PS2, and Sony's focus in the last two generations has increasingly shifted to the West. A huge stationary system isn't a great fit for Japan's tastes, especially when it's lacking noteworthy games aimed at them.
Last edited by curl-6 - on 18 December 2020
Famitsu 2020 Top 50:
TOTAL: 20.106.601
NSW TOTAL: 15.946.665 (81.7%)
PS4 TOTAL: 3.664.427 (18.3%)
Top Publishers:
Mnementh said:
I don't get the supply excuse. Sony produced more PS5 at launch than PS4, but decided to supply less to Japan? The message here is either, that japanese customers don't like PS5 or that Sony doesn't like japan. Either way, that is no good sign. EDIT: To put the supply argument the other way around: although Sony also had to deliver to japan (which they didn't with PS4), they could supply more PS5 to the US and europe. But still japan numbers are that bad. |
The first bolded part doesn't add up because Japan was not included in PS4's initial launch at all. So sony are supplying more PS5's to japan then the comparable point in the PS4's life, which was 0.
As for the latter, the same reason why sony delayed the PS4's Japan launch is the reason why they have pushed more supply to US/EU. We know these places are its priority. Higher Japan stock will mean less for US/EU, where its fighting more direct competition from MS and has more to earn in terms of software and services revenue. we obviously know they've shifted focus to the west, that isn't new information.
There's no doubt that Sony have lost a lot of ground in Japan, but drawing comparisons to the PS4's launch just makes for messy equations since they're not directly comparable. By all means it could be that with infinite supply PS5 sells much worse than ps4, but we can't draw that conclusion from it being undersupplied at a point where the PS4 wasn't released due to supply constraints.
Otter said:
The first bolded part doesn't add up because Japan was not included in PS4's initial launch at all. So sony are supplying more PS5's to japan then the comparable point in the PS4's life, which was 0. |
No, it doesn't add up. If you add Japans later launch to PS4 launch numbers, there are still more PS5.
PS5 launched only second week in europe, for PS4 europe launch was week 3. So I add the first three weeks. For PS4 I add the first three weeks of japans launch to worldwide numbers.
PS5: 1.548.910+1.082.418+400.496=3.031.824
PS4: 1.071.184+98.775+966.210+319.689+58.820+33443=2.548.121
So even despite the staggered launch Sony could produce 500K less units for PS4 than they did for PS5. But yet even with much higher supply, they decided to send even less to Japan. Again: as I just add the japanese launch numbers PS4 should theoretically have a strong advantage here, but Sony optimized it's production for PS5 and could supply much more. That means the low numbers in Japan are a deliberate decision. Sony doesn't care about Japan. Not only not care, actively undersupplying them.
Mnementh said:
No, it doesn't add up. If you add Japans later launch to PS4 launch numbers, there are still more PS5. PS5 launched only second week in europe, for PS4 europe launch was week 3. So I add the first three weeks. For PS4 I add the first three weeks of japans launch to worldwide numbers. PS5: 1.548.910+1.082.418+400.496=3.031.824 PS4: 1.071.184+98.775+966.210+319.689+58.820+33443=2.548.121 So even despite the staggered launch Sony could produce 500K less units for PS4 than they did for PS5. But yet even with much higher supply, they decided to send even less to Japan. Again: as I just add the japanese launch numbers PS4 should theoretically have a strong advantage here, but Sony optimized it's production for PS5 and could supply much more. That means the low numbers in Japan are a deliberate decision. Sony doesn't care about Japan. Not only not care, actively undersupplying them. |
You're still comparing supply to Japan at 2 different points in the launch cycle. By the time PS4 launched in Japan the holidays had passed in the west and sony had already sold over 5m units. I'm not sure if undersupplying is worse than not launch at all in the same period, but in practice you're looking at the same pricipal between this and the pS4 launch: prioritising demand in the west.
Microsoft are the real winners, they launched X1 much later in Japan and are seeing massive growth because they've dedicated such a massive amount of consoles well ahead of what they did when they launched their previous system there. No doubt 3rd Parties are taking notice.
Just to remind everyone it took Microsoft an year to get 30K X1s shipped to Japan last gen, that's what I call a real turn around - they also have Minecraft on the Switch which is the leading 3rd Party game on the system - so they might actually be more relevant in Japan than Sony this Holiday season :D
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