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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts November 2020 Discussion Thread

The next 5 months for Wii, taken from the database:
August: 600k
September: 700k
October: 690k
November: 2325k
December: 5714k
Total:9029k



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trunkswd said:

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Switch vs Wii Sales Comparison - Gap Drops Below 1 Million in November 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo Wii.

Switch Vs. Wii Global:

Gap change in latest month: 2,971,872 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 6,609,171 - Switch

Total Lead: 953,330 - Wii

Switch Total Sales: 70,920,531

Wii Total Sales: 71,873,861

November 2020 is the 45th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the Switch closed the gap by 2.97 million units when you align the launches of the two consoles. In the last 12 months, the Switch has outsold the Wii by 6.61 million units. The Wii is currently ahead of the Switch by 0.95 million units.

The Wii launched in November 2006, while the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 45th month for the Nintendo Switch is November 2020 and for the Wii it is July 2010. The Switch has sold 70.92 million units, while the Wii sold 71.87 million units during the same timeframe. The Wii sold current Switch sales in month 44.

The Wii sold 101.63 million units worldwide during its lifetime. The Switch needs to sell another 30.71 million units to outsell the Wii.

The tortoise is closing in on the hare.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Hello everyone, this is my first post, but I have been a fan of this site for over 10 years, I have always enjoyed reading all the different sales threads. Hopefully I can add something to the conversation.

In terms of this Gap Charts, I feel that the NS vs Wii will be very interesting for the next 5 months, NS should be able to sell more than the 10 million PDiddy mentioned (I added the current ~1M lead).  According to the current VGChartz DB, if switch is able to replicate the December 2019-April 2020, then it would sell about 12.4 million. But this is a big challenge as march and april were incredibly high. After that, there is not much of a battle in my opinion. I think there is even a slim chance the NS reaches over 100 Million in 2021. 

I have been working on a theory that for consoles like Switch that get launched in a different month, there could be a different type of analisis that is Month Aligned. This means that the month that is released is compared to the same month for other consoles, that way we try to prevent the double helix effect in some gap charts. If we do the Month Aligned chart for NS vs Wii, we get this chart that might be a lot more indicative of what is going on. 

With this month aligned, the next month (month 46 for the NS) will compare December for both consoles, in this case the NS would have to beat the 6.5 million of the wii for its fourth christmas. I personally don't think that is possible, but the switch has surprised us a lot this year.

Hopefully this sounds like a fun idea, I will be glad to share more of these gap charts month aligned if anyone is interested. I log in constantly waiting for @trunkswd posts. Thank you Trunks for all your hard work.



dmillos32 said:

Hello everyone, this is my first post, but I have been a fan of this site for over 10 years, I have always enjoyed reading all the different sales threads. Hopefully I can add something to the conversation.

In terms of this Gap Charts, I feel that the NS vs Wii will be very interesting for the next 5 months, NS should be able to sell more than the 10 million PDiddy mentioned (I added the current ~1M lead).  According to the current VGChartz DB, if switch is able to replicate the December 2019-April 2020, then it would sell about 12.4 million. But this is a big challenge as march and april were incredibly high. After that, there is not much of a battle in my opinion. I think there is even a slim chance the NS reaches over 100 Million in 2021. 

I have been working on a theory that for consoles like Switch that get launched in a different month, there could be a different type of analisis that is Month Aligned. This means that the month that is released is compared to the same month for other consoles, that way we try to prevent the double helix effect in some gap charts. If we do the Month Aligned chart for NS vs Wii, we get this chart that might be a lot more indicative of what is going on. 

With this month aligned, the next month (month 46 for the NS) will compare December for both consoles, in this case the NS would have to beat the 6.5 million of the wii for its fourth christmas. I personally don't think that is possible, but the switch has surprised us a lot this year.

Hopefully this sounds like a fun idea, I will be glad to share more of these gap charts month aligned if anyone is interested. I log in constantly waiting for @trunkswd posts. Thank you Trunks for all your hard work.

Your idea is very similar to a fiscal year aligned chart, but without giving the console launching in the holiday those extra months. Not a bad idea, but I would suggest including those year 0, so to speak, to tell the whole story of wii.