No PS5 won't get close to Switch sales. Switch gonna end up around 150m. PS5 might beat PS4 by a bit, perhaps passing 120m, but I don't see it reaching 130m, so Switch probably ends up probably around 25m higher than PS5.

Not a chance. In fact, it won't even come close.

While I'm still not on the "Switch will be the best-selling system ever" boat, I think it'll end somewhere around 150M (the exact number depending on exactly what point next year the Switch 2 releases). Meanwhile, the PS5 is probably only going to sell a bit better than the PS4, the latter of which had its lifetime sales hobbled because the COVID boom in 2020 depleted stock before the holiday season and Sony was either unwilling or unable to replenish stock. Therefore, I think the PS5 will probably do between 120-125M, or around 25-30M short of the Switch.

The PS2–DS–Switch trifecta of best-selling consoles ever is unlikely to ever be challenged by anything ever again, barring mass adoption of consoles outside the main three markets of North America, Japan, and Europe. The PS2 had market dominance that no subsequent PlayStation system has had, the DS was an absolute beast during the all-time peak of the handheld market, and the Switch, already on track to threaten the Game Boy's position as the #4 system, got a boost due to certain external factors which we will not discuss (though I guess people have mellowed out about that since 2020-21 since bringing it up doesn't cause a massive shitstorm anymore, but just in case *taps sign*).

Too many crises happened during this gen, and one is still on and affecting PS strongest markets, it will be very difficult for PS5 to fill the gap with NS, although it still has the possibility of outselling it yearly one or more years. Overall it will do wonders for an expensive item in years when sadly too many people face a worsening of their economic conditions, but filling a gap so wide will be very, very difficult, probabilities are quite low.

Next update.

As of September 30, 2024 (31 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 35.62m (96.3%) +10%

Americas- 56.11m (96.7%) +9%

Europe- 37.52m (76.6%) +8%

Other- 16.79m (64.6%) +5%

Progress has slowed, but it was still very significant.

Compare to top consoles at 30(32) quarters.

Japan (DS, 30 quarters): 32.98m (99.9%) +.6%

Americas (Wii, 30 quarters): 48.46m (99.6%) +1.4%

Europe (PS2, 32 quarters): 49.35m (90.6%) +8%

My source for exact PS2 shipments to Europe disappeared so bear with the change. The sales could be a bit wrong. Doesn't really matter though because Switch still outperformed expectations. Switch will far exceed Americas and Japan expectations but fall slightly behind Europe and Others.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Japan- 35.62m/29m

Americas- 56.11m/51m

Europe- 37.52m/33.5m

Other- 16.79m/16.5m

Nintendo Switch has now exceeded all of my predictions. Japan has already been said last year, but everything else is just a normal amount.

To give myself another excuse, I legitimately thought a late 2023 announcement/ and 2024 release would have happened for Switch 2 at the time of my original prediction.

Instead we are looking at a 2025 announcement and 2025 holiday release.

I'll be slightly surprised if PS5 goes above 130m tbh.

So no, PS5 sales wont be as good as Switch's sales.

I think it's pretty clear at this point that my initial prediction undershot Japan and the US, but it overshot Europe and Other.  Overall, I think this is going to balance out and total Switch sales will get fairly close to my overall initial prediction of 170m (although it might end up a few million short of this).

Yeah nice prediction in the end.

I am curious on when you predicted the Switch to launch back when you made that 170m prediction. Your answer would be interesting either way.

Lets look at the facts: PS5 is down 26% YoY ww and thats as soon as year 4, wich typically is the time where Sony sells the most systems. And that despite Astro Bot and PS5 Pro. I have a hard time believing this trend will revise next year and beyond. And no also a multiplattform game is not gonna change that. Also if its called "GTA6". It will slow the decline masslively (next year) but thats about it. I see 150 million as much too optimistic. I go with JRPG Fan's 130 million, maybe a bit more but thats about it. Passing the Switch LTD? No way in hell!

Do you mean Switch 2?  For a long time I thought it would be late '24 or early '25.  At this point (today), I think it will be 2nd half '25.  They aren't going to do a reveal until early '25, and they'll release the successor in the 2nd half of '25.