Well, I do think 40+ Million is possible for both, but that would require some extreme circumstances, like Switch continuing to sell software at unprecedented rates in 2021, 2022, and beyond, no MK9, a dry spell in terms of releases, etc.

If you expect another 20+ Million for AC, why wouldn't BoTW2 or Mario, franchises that have traditionally outsold the AC franchise, not outsell it in its first year? 

How. Both of these games will be over 30 million by the end of the year. How is it so difficult to believe that over the next 3 years or so they will manage to sell another 10 million? Sales would have to die off completely for them not to make it, both of these franchises are known for having legs. You believe that spiderman will sell at least another 5 million on a dead console when it's been replaced with a remaster. You are completely over estimating ps4 games and under estimating switch games.

You know the difference between 30 and 40 is 10 not 20. Zelda hasn't traditionally outsold animal crossing. The best selling animal crossing games have sold pretty close to 3d mario games. I don't get what you are trying to say here. Are you trying to say that Zelda and Mario will outsell animal crossing? 

I was talking more about MK8 in that instance, I should have made that more clear, but why are you so sure the Switch isn't going to get a MK entry? MK9 would absolutely derail MK8 legs. As for Animal Crossing, I thought you meant it would sell over 50 Million lifetime, and as well as it sold, I don't think that's on the table. Otherwise, the next big releases from Nintendo should see a similar sales trajectory.

You keep telling me the PS4 is a dead console like a 115+ Million userbase is going to completely abandon it. Will GoT and TLOU: Part II stop selling because the PS5 is out? Why did Spiderman chart in November on the PSN PS4 charts if the PS5 remaster already replaced it? 

Why would they want to derail sales of Mario kart 8? They likely want MK8 to sell as much as possible before replacing it. Just because AC is selling well doesn't mean anything for any other Nintendo titles. It doesnt mean they will sell similar numbers. 3d mario usually outsells Zelda by a large margin but botw is outselling Mario odyssey.

They'll sell a bit next year and then get remastered for the ps5. Spider man was on sale in November and had a sequel release. The ps5 is hard to get currently. It'll die off next year.

They can release MK9 in 2022, which might coincide with the rumored 4K Switch, allowing MK8 to get another year of sales. MK9 would also make a lot more money for Nintendo than MK8 currently can.

If someone expects 50+ Million lifetime for AC, essentially expecting 20+ Million sales in its second year and beyond, why would it be the only piece of Nintendo software that benefits? Similar to how Animal Crossing defied expectations, software spikes showed video games benefitting from a worldwide lockdown, so if Animal Crossing has legs that defy a traditional sales curve, it would not be exclusive, meaning the next big title from Nintendo would shatter records. 

How do you know everyone wants to buy the PS5 version of Spiderman? Speaking for myself, I haven't bought/played Spiderman yet, and its not a game I'd wait to play on the PS5, rather its something I'd pick up for the right price. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way. SM charted in November despite Miles Morales release. Not to mention Spiderman will have sales next year too, its not a one time thing. Don't forget that the PS5 version of SM is not even available to purchase as a standalone title.

That's the thing. Didn't you originally said that, "Would Playstation as a platform be as big as it is without all of those 3rd party AAA titles?". So, why didn't it have the same affect on Xbox platform? Why it didn't reach that height of sales? Why only PS4? Xbox One also have AC, COD, FIFA, GTA and the big 3rd party AAA titles. But, why Xbox One "is the loser" and not PS4? Ever thought the reason probably because people prefer with Sony 1st party/ time exclusive titles? That's why PS4 platform propel more than 100+ million consoles & the 1st party titles sold gangbusters, not solely because of 3rd party titles that helping them and carrying the load as you said. Even you agreed, "3rd party games can't push all consoles to 100 million plus.". That's why Xbox One could not become the console with 100+ million install base instead of PS4, because they lack in exclusive titles that attract and entice many gamers (one of the reasons).

So, I agreed with PotentHerbs opinion. It is not a pathetic excuse and not as delusional as you attacked him. It is what it is. Sony titles indeed have big competition from other massive franchises. But, Spider-Man or other Sony titles can sell on its own. Obviously, there are other factors as well. But, it doesn't take the impressiveness of Spider-Man sold unit. Anyway, carry on. I'm just an onlooker and bemused ?

I give up, you are completely unwilling to see sense here. 

The new switch is rumoured for early next year, not 2022. It is unlikely that a new MK is coming out soon because MK 9 would likely not reach its full sales potential on switch, 8 and 9 would hurt each other.

First of all I never said AC will sell 50 million. I don't get the logic here, why does AC selling insanely well mean other games will as well. Here's an example, on the Wii MK sold way beyond what any MK had ever sold before, but Zelda sales didn't change and 3d mario didn't see any boost. Just because AC performs well doesn't mean anything for any other game. 30 million sales can't be just attributed to covid boost. If that were the case then all other new releases this year should have sold way more then they have.

Spiderman charted in November because miles morales released not despite. This is common that sequels boost the previous game for a couple of weeks. It happened with TLOU, it happened with new leaf. Typically software sales take a massive hit after a new console releases. Stuff like TLOU 2, GoT and cyberpunk will sell alright for awhile because they are new games.

I think you aren't understanding what he said. He isn't saying that only 3rd party games sell Sony consoles. He is saying that they contribute to the hardware selling more. If you took gta, fifa, cod and other huge 3rd party games off of ps4 it is likely it would sell less. Which would mean that 1st party games have less people to sell to.

That is certainly true (but he pretends also that Nintendo IPs sells their consoles, which when you consider the historic isn't true, you can say that Nintendo can only depend on their games to sell their consoles but you can't say that they make the consoles sell as a blanket statement), and he also made the claim in a way that Sony games doesn't have much to do with the console selling well and that without the extra HW sale the sony games wouldn't sell well, in a way that there is more of a net positive of the increase in SW sales by HW sales than a negative of having more competition. Considering the Sony games improved a lot in sales from PS2 to PS3 and again on PS4 with lower HW sales than PS2 and also knowing that the total SW sold on a platform sure have a strong correlation with the total HW sold (tie ratio is fairly close between successful consoles, around 12 SW per HW) the sales of stablished IPs can be observed to not have had the same increase with HW, you can pick most PS or even Nintendo exclusives and see that sure the consoles that had more HW sales those titles also sold better but it is a very light correlation.

No, I perfectly understand what he said. That's why I said "not solely". 3rd party games do help, but he's downplaying Sony 1st party titles huge contribution which sold tremendously in a region of not only 10+ million but also 20+ millions, which in turn move many hardware as well. Why 3rd party is the reason PS4 sell more? Why not Sony 1st party? Sony games sold improved a lot especially compare to PS3. I can turn around that/ his statement which can stand true.

I'm not saying that only 1st party games sell Sony consoles. I'm saying that they contribute to the hardware selling more. If you took GoW, Horizon Zero Dawn, Spider-Man, TLoU, Uncharted and other huge 1st party games off of ps4 it is likely it would sell less. Which would mean that 3rd/ 1st party games have less people to sell to.

Just look at Xbox One, they have GTA, FIFA, COD and other huge 3rd party games... but it not even reach half of PS4 total hardware, no need to mention it 1st party titles. DonFerarri sum up what I'm trying to say. Seeing xPhenom08x is banned, I have my opinion on this already.

Yes, thank you ? More or less what I want to say.