24m projection for the FY seems kinda low but I guess that's how Nintendo rolls. I was expecting Animal Crossing to overtake Mario Kart 8:Deluxe this quarter but I guess it's going to wait.

True of course that it could be close to 64 million, in which case we'd be looking at something closer to a 4.5 mil difference.

I did consider the fact that maybe they had a huge amount in transit at the end of September, but those shipments should have arrived by now and if they are indeed not stockpiling that would probably be noticable. I suppose its possible that we will see a very big NPD October, but Famitsu numbers haven't seemed all too different as of late (a couple of 100k weeks, but we've seen that before this year).

For now I'm leaning mostly towards Nintendo lowballing the estimate, though it is possible that the gap is bigger than I had thought.

Where is Xenoblade Chronicles 2?

彼はもう死んでいる

If they say 24m, then I expect something between 27-30m; if they said 28m, then I'd expect 32-33m.  It seems like they've been overly conservative with their hardware estimates ever since they got embarrassed by not reaching their FY19 projection.

75.95m

68.85m

13.56

MK8D - Became the top selling MK game of all time when totaled with the WiiU version and is the top selling racing game of all time as a result, it'll go on to become the top selling MK and racing game on a single platform at this point.

ACNH - Not much to really say will eventually cross the 30m mark.

Smash - Not really anything to say here it's already the best selling in its series and genre where it goes will be the new bar to be compared to.

BOTW - Has pretty much been a monster flagship title for the platform, here since launch and still putting in a performance it's essentially the first party R* title at the moment.

Pokemon S/S - Already the third best selling title in the series it'll cross the 20m mark the first the series has done since G/S and could become the second best selling title in the series with legs.

Luigi's Mansion 3 - I said early in the NS' life that a LM game could be a potential 10m seller as well as a Tomodachi title and so far LM3 is making the steady journey to that milestone.

Ring Fit - So uh people know RFA is selling but no one is picking up on the fact that it's now one of the best selling RPGs released and still going despite being just under 6m sales. This is the true story of the Q2 results right here as RFA has pulled off a Splatoon.

Curl, can you please add Xenoblade Chronicles 2 to the OP?

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how well BOTW is doing. To think that up until now Zelda sales would often hover around the 4-7 Million sales mark on average is crazy. BOTW has completely upended that trend.

I have to say I'm Pleasantly surprised and happy that a simple game like Clubhouse games sold almost 1 million units in the past quarter alone and is now borderline at 2 million. I want more simple casual fun pick up play games on the Switch like we saw during the Wii era with stuff like Wii Sports and Wii Play, I hope this sends a message to Nintendo that there is demand for simple casual games like Wii Sports/Clubhouse games so maybe Nintendo could make a sequel to Wii Sports on Switch or something.

If NS has the usual holiday sales average of 10m or so it guarantees a FY finish with more than 80m shipped it would mean NS doesn't just pass the 3DS but also the PSP and GBA in the FY which isn't even the insane part of it as a good holiday showing with a decent Q4 would mean it'll be breathing down the back of the 360.