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Forums - Sony Discussion - Japanese analyst: PS5 could sell 200-300m in 5 to 6 years

DonFerrari on 18 October 2020
Ka-pi96 said:
Dulfite said:
Wow so is this what PS5's 6 years will look like?

20 mil year 1
30 mil year 2
50 mil year 3
80 mil year 4
70 mil year 5
50 mil year 6

Yeah, even if some miracle happened and there was enough demand for that to happen, they wouldn't even be able to produce that many consoles per year. It's just not possible.

Manufacturing that many is certainly possiblle even if quite unlikely. They would have to build plants or make big contracts but yes it can be made.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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crissindahouse on 18 October 2020
shikamaru317 said:
Mnementh said:

Even if we assume that eSports move completely to PS5 (and that is a massive ask, as you said), how many additional unit sales would that make? 5 million? 10 million? Never the 80-180 million needed for this prediction. This guy not only assumes the eSports-scene moves completely to PS5 (and only talking about Xbox not PC), but also it has to grow massively.

EDIT: But at least we know which analyst recommended Atari to produce 4-5 million cartridges of E.T.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.T._the_Extra-Terrestrial_(video_game)

I think his (bad) take is that eSports events will be played on PS5 units instead of PC's next gen for some reason, and that millions of new casuals who have never been gamers before will watch eSports events being played on PS5, and then want to buy a PS5 themselves in order to emulate their favorite eSports players. He mentions how NBA player endorsements can sell millions of shoes, like Nike's Jordan shoe brand. It's a stupid prediction for sure, it assumes not only that Sony will be able to convince eSports events to switch from PC to PS5, but also that the eSports fanbase will grow monstrously over the course of this gen, creating hundreds of millions of brand new gamers.

Some people I know who buy Jordans don't even care much about basketball. It helped to boost the brand the first years but now it's not only about basketball especially outside of USA



The_Liquid_Laser on 18 October 2020

I want to know where this "analyst" thinks all of these people are coming from.  PS5 is not a Blue Ocean product like the Wii.  It isn't trying to bring new types of people into gaming.  It also isn't trying to be a cheaper system that can be easily sold in new territories.  It can't get 100M+ people from former XB1 fans, because XB1 is only selling around 50M.  And it isn't going to take them away from Nintendo, because Switch is clearly going to be super successful.  Where do the exta 100M+ people come from?

I think some of these analysts are really marketers who get to have "analyst" as their title.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Replicant on 18 October 2020

I get that predicting extreme numbers makes an "analyst" stand out in the headlines.

But I just don't see how it's in any way beneficial to their future career being so out of touch with reality. Aren't they held accountable for previous statements and track records?



Signalstar on 18 October 2020

Agree with everyone else, this prediction is cray cray. It's way too low.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo

Please Watch/Share this video so it gets shown in Hollywood.

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Replicant on 18 October 2020
Signalstar said:
Agree with everyone else, this prediction is cray cray. It's way too low.



Link_Nines.XBC on 18 October 2020



My Top 50 Video Games

Ryotsu on 18 October 2020

Daaaammmmn!



Wman1996 on 18 October 2020

Never ever happening. Maybe he fails to realize Japanese consumers have mostly abandoned home consoles. Japan is a major market for video games, and them losing interest in PlayStation will hurt worldwide sales.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Qwark on 18 October 2020

I think 100 million might already be overshooting it, let alone 200 million or more.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar