110 million

140m ~ 150 m

122 million units.

Going with 110-120 million.

130-140m

I expect the ps5 to be up a bit more than the ps4. and the xbox to be a bit down from the x1.

@RolStoppable . From your own analisis I cant realy see how you would think the xbox will increase. By the time the exclusives show up sony would already have quite a few notable big titles while still releasing their regular output. So its gona be an uphill battle to change the narrative of the lack of exclusives. At most it could go from xbox has no games, to xbox has less games. Still up in the air if they will be any good. This will give sony some very good starting momentum. If competition on the games front dosent start for MS untill 2022 or later, How big of a gap could sony have by then? Would it be to big that the snowball of "friends buying cuz friends have it" be stoped?

Also budget frindly is not something that will resonate well with the hardcore gamers, wich are the first to start the snowball effect. Thats more of a reason to buy a console for someone else like a kid or something. As you have said, gamers are older so these consoles are already budget options for adults. Its something that will impact later on on the consoles life cycle. and lets also not forget that ps5D is also the best budget option for a full 9th gen console wich is still $100 cheaper than the competition.

So yea I expect more competition from xbox, but not untill 2022. And by then we wont know if the gap from the massive head start sony got will be to much.

EDIT: Bonus. I see VR as only going up. They said that the old vr will still be compatible so the istall base wont start from zero. Depending on the price of the new one it could be big enough for real games to show up for it.

I predicted 55-65m for XsX, so I will go with 105-115m for PS5

Bonus: I truly hope so, but I have no idea.

Did I reply in the wrong thread? My bad. But they are almost inseparable so its an easy mistake. Even now im thinking that its gona be hard to respond without making it about xbox.

OK but you think gamers with that big friend list that already are stablished on playstation are sudenly gona jump because of power?  I highly doubt that. I can see them definetly them owining both consoles and then eventually focusing on the xbox cuz it could give them a  better experience on it on all thouse multy platform games. Again, something that wont start afecting untill later in the cycle cuz most multyplatform owners dont buy both at launch.

But MS does not have the price advantage. The ps5 D is still $100 less expensive than the xsx. Maybe MS can release one later without the disc drive, but right now they dont have it. 

And thats the thing about exclusives, they also lead the power narrative. While we can all agree that the xbox will have the most powerfull hardware in a lot of games. At the begining thouse games will be crossgen so both consoles will max out thouse games. Then the exclusives will shine britest among basicly 8th gen ports. Lest just look back at dirt 5 gameplay the other day. People where not impress at all. They where not impreesed with halo and they wont be with other crossgen games. But they where impresed with spidermar, horizon, demon souls and ratchet and clank. Because they pushed the consoles. Again, that will change later in the  life cycle of theese consoles. But again, will that be to late?

Xbox all acces is definetly an advantage. People love their payment plans. Shame its so limited. There are regions that would benefit more from this plan than the ones that it curreently releasing on. Back in my country consoles are like 2x the price. People would go crazzy for this.

Multy platform games are the highest selling only counting all releases. If you look per console only fifa and COD are the ones who chart at the top. Most of the top selling titles on Playstationare are its exclusives. Very few multyplats sell more than its top exclusives. And just look at nintendo. There just arent many multyplats that sell above 10m on any single patform. While sony and nintendo have many. Some of nintendos have gone over 20m. 

How, for most of 25 years the playstation has remained dominat in the US. The only outlier here was the ps360 gen. Aside from that, the ps4 took a lot of its mindshare back. one out of four is not a good metric t claim this. You can say that the US is the more balanced region with the less biase. I would agree. The rest of the world aside from the UK have made their minds and are not changing.

And no, exclusives dint lead the power narrative at the begining of the ps360 gen. It sure did at the end of the gen when sony had their shit toghether and their games looked far better and games like the last of us looked better than anything at the time. Multiplats by then where almost on par, while at the begining the 360 had a very big lead.

But they dont dominate the top 10. If you look at this site then you might think that as charts are not updated it seems. but look ad unchaarted, official sony released data sais they are avove 16m. Its cnsidered to be the #2 before gtav. games like horizon god or war and spiderman also chart in the top 10 when adjusted. Where exactly, I cant say I know as other big third partys could also need adjusting. But aside from that and Read dead redemption 2, its littered with fifas and COD. Not ssaying that people buy playsation for its exclusives alone like they do nnintendo, but they sure have a big impact and I would say top priority unlike for the xbox. WHere you use the top 10 it will look good for sony, but if you go higher there are just a lot more releases by third partys than sony alone.

I would never   buy a digital console, I would not even buy digital games. But to say that the digital console is gimped is just absurd. While it sucks the fact is that the younger gamers are moving more and more digital. Dint they report that like 50% of gaamers are digital only just a while back? What is gimped is a weaker console that is basicly planed obsolence and will most liekly remaine on the market untill a slim of the real console shows up in a couple of years. Some are even speculating that some debs will make games excluding the S cuz they dont want their games gimped. Will sony limit their digigtal because they dont want to loose money? I agree, I cnt inmagine just how much they are loosing per unit. Still it gives them the cost narrative as that is atractive to 50% of the population or so. 

I guessed 100-109.99. if I need to choose a number, I'll go with 102mm. As others have said, I expect the pie to stay about the same size (though maybe grow a little, as MS is offering a lower cost entry point), and I will expect XB to do significantly better. Signs also point to a short generation (5-6 years), so that's not conducive to high system sales. Probably the low cost XB will grow the pie by about the same amount that cutting a year off the generation will shrink it.

My guess is that there won't be a PSVR 2. I don't think the first one sold well enough to justify it, and Sony hasn't said much about VR lately. With that said, if they do launch a new VR system, it'll be because their research tells them it'll sell well. So, I'll say that it'll do better than the original PSVR.

I went with 110 to 119.9m so slightly under the PS4's total.

Edit: As for PSVR, the success of a future VR set will always depend on the price of entry which I don't see going down should Sony release a new and improved set so I don't think it'll have much better sales than on PS4.