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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2020 thread: Switch 670K, PS4 160K, XBO 91K

trunkswd said:
TruckOSaurus said:
How can Marvel's Avengers be #1 with 450K units while 3D All-Stars is at 1,165K? Is it because they have digital sales numbers for Avengers and they don't have them for 3D All-Stars?

Correct. Nintendo doesn't provide digital sales. 

So 3D All-Stars is really #1 unless it somehow has 5% digital sales.



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TruckOSaurus said:
trunkswd said:

Correct. Nintendo doesn't provide digital sales. 

So 3D All-Stars is really #1 unless it somehow has 5% digital sales.

If Nintendo provided digital sales, yes, it would most likely be the best-seller of the month. Share of digital sales on Switch is lower than on Xbox and PS, but is still a good chunk of sales on the console. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

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tbh it seem a miracle if Avangers even reach the physical sales of 3D All Star, it can't be much over that.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

NPD software chart is seriously screwed up. Switch hardware is selling about 2.5 times PS4 and XB1 combined this month. Yet somehow most of the Nintendo games tend to be lower down on the software charts. It's because they don't include digital. Meanwhile third party games include PS4+XB1+PC with physical and digital combined. I noticed this month that their title also said mobile sales are included. Not sure what title(s) that would apply to.



mk7sx said:

Here's HW!

NSW 666,400

PS4 158,300

XBO 91,500

NSW misses all time record vs. Wii 08 by 21K.  Second highest Sep of all time (even ahead of NDS) and only the second time we've crossed 600K in September.

EDIT: Welfare on Era says:

670K

160K

91K

noshten said:
NSW 666k
PS4 188k
XB1 55k

Effing Xbox screwing my prediction by selling more than expected. 

Wonder how high Switch can go in the holiday quarter.. can it top DS peak in North America? That would be like 6M sales in the final three months of the year with the biggest new title being Age of Calamity. With enough Animal Crossing bundle sales, Fortnite bundle sales, Ring Fit supply... it's possible even without a major 1st Party holiday title. Pokemon expansion could also help 

Anyways doesn't seem like Western AAA 3rd Parties have anything lined up, their loss this holiday - madness really, at least Koei Tecmo is about to have their best selling title in the US by a considerable margin. Must be fun in the executive board rooms, as only Ubisoft has a AA game dated for this holiday on the system - Immortals: Fenyx Rising. Square still hasn't updated us on Bravely Default 2 but the longer we wait the less likely we are to see it in 2020. Can't really think of anything else. 

At least indies and smaller studios are enjoying the success, Hades is probably the best new game I've played in 2020.  



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noshten said:
mk7sx said:

Here's HW!

NSW 666,400

PS4 158,300

XBO 91,500

NSW misses all time record vs. Wii 08 by 21K.  Second highest Sep of all time (even ahead of NDS) and only the second time we've crossed 600K in September.

EDIT: Welfare on Era says:

670K

160K

91K

noshten said:
NSW 666k
PS4 188k
XB1 55k

Effing Xbox screwing my prediction by selling more than expected. 

Wonder how high Switch can go in the holiday quarter.. can it top DS peak in North America? That would be like 6M sales in the final three months of the year with the biggest new title being Age of Calamity. With enough Animal Crossing bundle sales, Fortnite bundle sales, Ring Fit supply... it's possible even without a major 1st Party holiday title. Pokemon expansion could also help 

Anyways doesn't seem like Western AAA 3rd Parties have anything lined up, their loss this holiday - madness really, at least Koei Tecmo is about to have their best selling title in the US by a considerable margin. Must be fun in the executive board rooms, as only Ubisoft has a AA game dated for this holiday on the system - Immortals: Fenyx Rising. Square still hasn't updated us on Bravely Default 2 but the longer we wait the less likely we are to see it in 2020. Can't really think of anything else. 

At least indies and smaller studios are enjoying the success, Hades is probably the best new game I've played in 2020.  

Immortals is definately a AAA game. But yeah, so much missed opportunity here.. record breaking hardware sales and big publishers shy away from releasing games on it. Super weird and bad business. Doom Eternal might make it also - might. But that's it for AAA games from third parties I think.. Unless there's something sneaky getting a reveal at a partner direct that should air next week or the one after that.

Melody of Memory should do well I guess, it's a Kingdom Hearts game after all :P But not a AAA game.

And yes, Hades is definately the best game I've played released in 2020 across all platforms. Damn fine game.



It’s kinda funny seeing 2K games debuting low and tumbling down the charts now lmao.

I don’t understand why the NPD won’t do all physical or all digital chart. Lumping them together is such a wacky misrepresentation of what actually selling. Also putting a million asterisk on almost every titles now is a bit of a joke.



Chart time!

The Switch managed a very slight increase in its weekly average from August. I guess the restocks were more towards the end of August. I imagine if sales were tracked weekly we might see that the week of restocks would be higher than adjacent weeks, which may have resulted in a larger August and smaller September. October's results should help give us better context as well as reveal if sales trended down through September or remained steady.

The XBO's stock situation continues to improve. Though it was still down YoY, its weekly average was over 60% higher month-over-month.

The PS4 meanwhile was the only system whose weekly average was down from August, and it was a fairly substantial drop at 35%. September was the second-weakest month of the year for the PS4 so far, after January. Perhaps stock issues are the culprit again? Still, it's down only 20% year-over-year, better than the normal average drop for a system in its replacement year.

More charts to come. Probably tomorrow evening after I get home from work or some time Monday.



I think we can deduce that the biggest week would have been the Mario All Stars launch.  1,165,000 physical sales means only 42% digital share gets it to 2M, and I'd wager its higher than that (Nintendo's been claiming >50% across the board this year and we know JP trends lower than that so outside JP must be higher).  If >2M is true, then that's a mega opener for an exclusive, in the vicinity or greater than TLOU2 - definitely a big time HW mover.

I'd guess September started hot, tapered off weeks 2 & 3, then picked back up again in 4/5.

Aug 1 120K

Aug 2 120K

Aug 3 125K

Aug 4 140K

Sep 1 140K

Sep 2 110K

Sep 3 110K

Sep 4 180K

Sep 5 130K

Not exactly that, but along that trend.  

Oct doesn't have any heavy hitters (although who knows with MK Live - could be a "Wii"-esque draw), so weekly avg should run at 110-130K, target range of 450-525K for the whole month.



mk7sx said:

NSW 666,400

Switch the console of the Devil confirmed.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.