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Forums - Sales - BOLD PREDICTION: PS5 and PS5D to be $399 and $349 respectively

Dulfite said:

I just read that Sony has had major losses across the board due to Covid-19 and that they are short term not doing well. Game department was pretty much the only profit. While selling PS5 at a lower price than they would have will help them a lot more in the long run, selling the device at a loss or significant loss may put their short term finances, as a whole company, into dangerous territory.

I don't particularly like PlayStation brands/products, and have never bought any, but I want them to be in a healthy situation as they push Nintendo and Microsoft and the whole gaming industry forward, just as the other two do as well.

If Covid-19 keeps up, Sony may have to do a lot of restructuring to stay afloat at this rate. I could see PlayStation spinning off to some other company in order to get the cash they may need. Movies are bombing left and right or simply being delayed from release. PlayStation is safe regardless, but I'm not so sure about Sony.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/sony-profit-revenue-fall-below-expectations-2020-05-13

https://sonyreconsidered.com/sony-q1-2020-earnings-overview-revenue-2-profits-1-f467dafe5609

No, they didn't. They've actually revised their forecast of losses down since May (30%) August (26%).

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Sony Corp surprised the market on Tuesday by reporting just a 1.1% profit fall for the cornonavirus-hit first quarter, as its gaming business thrived while consumers locked down at home looked for entertainment and downloaded more games. The electronics and entertainment firm posted April-June profit of 228.4 billion yen ($2.15 billion).

Sony have been re-structuring for years.

The impact of the novel coronavirus on Sony has been limited compared with Japanese electronics peers such as Panasonic Corp due to its pursuit of recurring revenue such as subscription fees on gaming content. To accelerate the portfolio shift to such revenue streams, Sony recently invested in Chinese video site Bilibili and Epic Games, creator of the popular video game Fortnite.

You have to be joking. Why would they sell off their most profitable division? Its a cornerstone for them that ties to all their other business.

They posted a $230 million profit in Movies. You can't make money if the movies aren't releasing, but you aren't spending money on marketing or development either. The pandemic will hit the movies segment hard over the next few years granted, but SPUOMC, TV shows (Amazon) and future films was looking very promising for that segment.



 

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They really don't need to price it at $399. Each gen Sony and MS seem to swap places in completely fucking up and squandering their good will. All Sony has to do is price at $499 and keep delivering exclusives and they'll win hands down.



 

Intrinsic said:
Imaginedvl said:

That's all it is: A guess based on what we know only (I saw your reply about other costs, I still think you are off believing those do not matter but there is not point arguing on that as we really do not know). We will see on Wednesday hopefully if it was the right one or not.

Now that's different than this guy pretending he "knows" the price for a fact and then point out to the future as a "reference" when asked how it got that; come on, don't tell me you are defending this lol At least while not agreeing you are coming up with some substance to make your points 

Nope, not defending it. I don't know the price, I am sure he doesn't know the price either. But I can understand why he's is convinced the price would land at what he is saying it would.

Hell, I even thin that's where the price would land at but made this "bold prediction" thread anyways for fun and to give my admittedly excessive optimism a stage. But with all we know, the most logical price point for the PS5 (standard and digital) is between $399 and $499. Though I have a feeling sony is gonna surprise us... but that's just a feeling, and means absolutely nothing.

For my bold prediction theory to work, the BOMis going to have to be lower than $450. Sony is going to have to be willing to take a loss of up to $80/unit on average and sony has to have the supply to meet the kinda demand my pricing would create. It's truly highly unlikely.

That would be nice. I am just very pessimistic about those things in general :)
I was happy to see the 499$ for the Series X but I was definitely expecting something at 599$ and was fine with it (I was wrong).

I think it is very obvious that we will know the price on Wednesday and hopefully, it will be around 499$ for sure (even if it is for the digital, as I do not care about the physical); if they keep it up at this price, good for all of us. And while I wanted to wait for Horizon to come out, I will probably get one up front if it is the case (I still need to play TLOU2 and finish Ghost of Tsushima, so why not doing it on the next generation).

And yah, I did not comment about the 349$ :) I think this is very bold indeed.



BraLoD said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

We have had numerous industry sources say Sony is struggling with the price. They wanted a cheaper price but component prices were too high. If they were so sure, they would have announced it by now. The system is to launch this year and they only have about a month to do it.

What was probably happening is Sony didn't want to be the first to announce the price because they always try to undercut the competition. This is why Sony and Microsoft played chicken with the price until Microsoft took the initiative to announce it (after it leaked). This is also why there is a cheaper smaller system to prevent Sony from really doing that. Again, if Sony was so confident, we'd have a price by now. 

Also, "market leader" doesn't matter because this changes constantly. Microsoft could be the market leader soon. 

Could MS be the market leader soon? Yes.

Will it? Hardly.

MS couldn't beat Sony worse with their best, the current state of Sony studios output quality makes it a very unlikely task to say the least.

Random unnamed sources say a lot of stuff all the time, and are mistaken almost always.

Fun fact, the one at Polygon that says Sony is struggling with the cost is also saying it could drive it to be priced as $500...

People expecting it to cost $400 are the one thinking Sony is struggling with the price.

The trend of the market has been that the winner of the previous generation is the loser of the next. So the odds are against Sony in this regard.

Also, Sony's games are not as strong as you think they are. They sell quickly but then fall over quickly as well. Most of the came out towards the end of the system's lifespan when the install base was much larger. If you want a current example, ports of 3D Mario games have already outsold TLOU Part 2 on Amazon. Sony system's are pushed by Grand Theft Auto, sports titles and Call of Duty. Sony's first party games are mostly bought by the diehard Sony fan. Spiderman Miles Morales isn't going to light the world on fire. 

As for industry sources, we had sources say there would be a portable only Switch and WOW thats exactly what happened. Then we had sources for a smaller cheaper digital XBox and WOW thats exactly what happened. You're going to have to back up that claim they are always wrong because it seems to me the reason you think it's fake is you don't want to believe Sony is having trouble.



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Seece said:

They really don't need to price it at $399. Each gen Sony and MS seem to swap places in completely fucking up and squandering their good will. All Sony has to do is price at $499 and keep delivering exclusives and they'll win hands down.

The difference here is the company with bad will has to make up for it at the end of the generation, as Sony did last generation--they even edged out in sales. Meanwhile, Xbox has gone this whole generation with comparitively poor sales and no true exclusives, and very few console exclusives. Not only that, but they're going into the next generation already making decisions in the same vain as this generation. What have they done to earn the trust of consumers so far? It was only a couple of short months ago that a promise of "a series of mic drop moments" or whatever cringe marketing crap they've come up with. And then Halo Infinite. The most recent announcement with the Series S isn't bad, but it honestly comes across as sort of desperate and I kind of miss actual stubstance being a selling point than feeling like I'm being bribed to buy a console.



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aiwass said:
Seece said:

They really don't need to price it at $399. Each gen Sony and MS seem to swap places in completely fucking up and squandering their good will. All Sony has to do is price at $499 and keep delivering exclusives and they'll win hands down.

The difference here is the company with bad will has to make up for it at the end of the generation, as Sony did last generation--they even edged out in sales. Meanwhile, Xbox has gone this whole generation with comparitively poor sales and no true exclusives, and very few console exclusives. Not only that, but they're going into the next generation already making decisions in the same vain as this generation. The most recent announcement with the Series S isn't bad, but it honestly comes across as sort of desperate and I kind of miss actual stubstance being a selling point than feeling like I'm being bribed to buy a console.

Yeah I agree completely, MS built their strategy and studios up towards the end of the OG Xbox lifecycle, with some amazing decisions for 360 and Sonys awful PS3 start = win. Pretty much same situation for PS4/XB1 but switched.

This time MS haven't really don't anything to substantially improve, the studios they've bought aren't producing games for launch.

Xbox should do better this gen, and maybe PS5 worse, but that still works out as a huge win for Sony/PS5. MS needed to do something crazy good and Sony needed to fuck up in some way, neither have happened.



 

Ps5 should be cheaper with a much lower spec. It can't afford to be higher than 8ts competitors



Dallinor said:
Dulfite said:

I just read that Sony has had major losses across the board due to Covid-19 and that they are short term not doing well. Game department was pretty much the only profit. While selling PS5 at a lower price than they would have will help them a lot more in the long run, selling the device at a loss or significant loss may put their short term finances, as a whole company, into dangerous territory.

I don't particularly like PlayStation brands/products, and have never bought any, but I want them to be in a healthy situation as they push Nintendo and Microsoft and the whole gaming industry forward, just as the other two do as well.

If Covid-19 keeps up, Sony may have to do a lot of restructuring to stay afloat at this rate. I could see PlayStation spinning off to some other company in order to get the cash they may need. Movies are bombing left and right or simply being delayed from release. PlayStation is safe regardless, but I'm not so sure about Sony.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/sony-profit-revenue-fall-below-expectations-2020-05-13

https://sonyreconsidered.com/sony-q1-2020-earnings-overview-revenue-2-profits-1-f467dafe5609

No, they didn't. They've actually revised their forecast of losses down since May (30%) August (26%).

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Sony Corp surprised the market on Tuesday by reporting just a 1.1% profit fall for the cornonavirus-hit first quarter, as its gaming business thrived while consumers locked down at home looked for entertainment and downloaded more games. The electronics and entertainment firm posted April-June profit of 228.4 billion yen ($2.15 billion).

Sony have been re-structuring for years.

The impact of the novel coronavirus on Sony has been limited compared with Japanese electronics peers such as Panasonic Corp due to its pursuit of recurring revenue such as subscription fees on gaming content. To accelerate the portfolio shift to such revenue streams, Sony recently invested in Chinese video site Bilibili and Epic Games, creator of the popular video game Fortnite.

You have to be joking. Why would they sell off their most profitable division? Its a cornerstone for them that ties to all their other business.

They posted a $230 million profit in Movies. You can't make money if the movies aren't releasing, but you aren't spending money on marketing or development either. The pandemic will hit the movies segment hard over the next few years granted, but SPUOMC, TV shows (Amazon) and future films was looking very promising for that segment.

While I disagree with Sony selling the system, it's not crazy to think Sony could be in trouble again. They had massive issues at the beginning of the Great Recession which almost bankrupted the company. He's right that movies are going to be an issue for a while. If you look at their Q1 reports, every division is down except games and financial services. 

If the PS5 doesn't do well, then it could ripple through the entire company. They wont sell of gaming as it's their best division but if it goes south, then it wipes out all their profits from the other divisions. 

On the bold: first, remember fixed cost do exist so Sony can't get out of all their cost. Second, they may have already incurred expenses already for movies that may not release for a while. This is going to hurt their cash flow and there is no telling if those movies will make back their cost. While they can change distribution, it may result in a different cost structure and that's a change that could impact Sony. 



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VideoGameAccountant said:
BraLoD said:

Could MS be the market leader soon? Yes.

Will it? Hardly.

MS couldn't beat Sony worse with their best, the current state of Sony studios output quality makes it a very unlikely task to say the least.

Random unnamed sources say a lot of stuff all the time, and are mistaken almost always.

Fun fact, the one at Polygon that says Sony is struggling with the cost is also saying it could drive it to be priced as $500...

People expecting it to cost $400 are the one thinking Sony is struggling with the price.

The trend of the market has been that the winner of the previous generation is the loser of the next. So the odds are against Sony in this regard.

Also, Sony's games are not as strong as you think they are. They sell quickly but then fall over quickly as well. Most of the came out towards the end of the system's lifespan when the install base was much larger. If you want a current example, ports of 3D Mario games have already outsold TLOU Part 2 on Amazon. Sony system's are pushed by Grand Theft Auto, sports titles and Call of Duty. Sony's first party games are mostly bought by the diehard Sony fan. Spiderman Miles Morales isn't going to light the world on fire. 

As for industry sources, we had sources say there would be a portable only Switch and WOW thats exactly what happened. Then we had sources for a smaller cheaper digital XBox and WOW thats exactly what happened. You're going to have to back up that claim they are always wrong because it seems to me the reason you think it's fake is you don't want to believe Sony is having trouble.

Trend of the market?

Elaborate on your reasoning. Include the PS1 to PS2 as well, as I'm really not sure how that fits into this 'trend'. Or how a model like that would even be applicable to this gen. The reality is the odds are overwhelmingly against MS. That's not even up for dispute.

They're stronger than they have ever been in the companies history. Comparing them to evergreen Nintendo titles is pointless.

That's reductive and inaccurate. As evidence in the boost the system has received numerous times with first party releases over the course of this generation. 

His claim wasn't that they are always wrong, but almost always. Which is true. Perhaps you don't follow all the leaks from unnamed sources, there's a lot.



 

dane007 said:
Ps5 should be cheaper with a much lower spec. It can't afford to be higher than 8ts competitors

That's kinda like saying Nin Switch should be cheaper due to it's much lower spec. Someone would surely point out that's different because it's a different type of device that's not competing directly with SNY and MS, which has merit. So while PS5 and XB Series are basically the same type of device, both aren't competing directly anymore. Indirectly sure, but SNY is remaining on the typical path for the most part, while MS is going another direction. XBSS blurs this even more so. This overall gives SNY wiggle room to charge more than you may anticipate otherwise based on it's hardware. Not to mention everything else, especially their position and momentum in the market right now.

I partially disagree as per the higher cost. I think PS5 (disc) could actually get away with being $600 in general, though it would lose a lot of good will and the sales gap that exists now would certainly tighten, likely a significant amount over time. SNY could afford to price it higher, but they would end up putting themselves in a much less optimal position as compared to now. Matching the $500 price point may allow for small changes to the sales trend of this gen, but not enough for SNY to worry much.

Heck Apple is known for not using the most advanced hardware in their products, yet look at what they charge for them. The hardware is only a piece of the puzzle. In terms of consoles however, breaking through that $500 barrier seems to almost be an impossible task, so if SNY feels the PS5 is worth more overall, it's most likely they will just go as high as the market will allow them without losing much ground, which would be $500. They could sub and charge less than that, but they really don't need to if they don't want to.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.