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Forums - Sales Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: PS5 and PS5D to be $399 and $349 respectively

Dallinor said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

The trend of the market has been that the winner of the previous generation is the loser of the next. So the odds are against Sony in this regard.

Also, Sony's games are not as strong as you think they are. They sell quickly but then fall over quickly as well. Most of the came out towards the end of the system's lifespan when the install base was much larger. If you want a current example, ports of 3D Mario games have already outsold TLOU Part 2 on Amazon. Sony system's are pushed by Grand Theft Auto, sports titles and Call of Duty. Sony's first party games are mostly bought by the diehard Sony fan. Spiderman Miles Morales isn't going to light the world on fire. 

As for industry sources, we had sources say there would be a portable only Switch and WOW thats exactly what happened. Then we had sources for a smaller cheaper digital XBox and WOW thats exactly what happened. You're going to have to back up that claim they are always wrong because it seems to me the reason you think it's fake is you don't want to believe Sony is having trouble.

Trend of the market?

Elaborate on your reasoning. Include the PS1 to PS2 as well, as I'm really not sure how that fits into this 'trend'. Or how a model like that would even be applicable to this gen. The reality is the odds are overwhelmingly against MS. That's not even up for dispute.

They're stronger than they have ever been in the companies history. Comparing them to evergreen Nintendo titles is pointless.

That's reductive and inaccurate. As evidence in the boost the system has received numerous times with first party releases over the course of this generation. 

His claim wasn't that they are always wrong, but almost always. Which is true. Perhaps you don't follow all the leaks from unnamed sources, there's a lot.

The trend of the market is that Sony beat MS every single gen so far.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Dallinor said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

The trend of the market has been that the winner of the previous generation is the loser of the next. So the odds are against Sony in this regard.

Also, Sony's games are not as strong as you think they are. They sell quickly but then fall over quickly as well. Most of the came out towards the end of the system's lifespan when the install base was much larger. If you want a current example, ports of 3D Mario games have already outsold TLOU Part 2 on Amazon. Sony system's are pushed by Grand Theft Auto, sports titles and Call of Duty. Sony's first party games are mostly bought by the diehard Sony fan. Spiderman Miles Morales isn't going to light the world on fire. 

As for industry sources, we had sources say there would be a portable only Switch and WOW thats exactly what happened. Then we had sources for a smaller cheaper digital XBox and WOW thats exactly what happened. You're going to have to back up that claim they are always wrong because it seems to me the reason you think it's fake is you don't want to believe Sony is having trouble.

Trend of the market?

Elaborate on your reasoning. Include the PS1 to PS2 as well, as I'm really not sure how that fits into this 'trend'. Or how a model like that would even be applicable to this gen. The reality is the odds are overwhelmingly against MS. That's not even up for dispute.

They're stronger than they have ever been in the companies history. Comparing them to evergreen Nintendo titles is pointless.

That's reductive and inaccurate. As evidence in the boost the system has received numerous times with first party releases over the course of this generation. 

His claim wasn't that they are always wrong, but almost always. Which is true. Perhaps you don't follow all the leaks from unnamed sources, there's a lot.

Every generation since the 7th we have seen a shift on who the top dog is. Sony dominated the 6th generation but got their ass handed to them in the 7th generation (they only inched out over Microsoft due to a global presence and then only by a few million). Sony came to dominate the 8th generation because Microsoft and Nintendo shit the bed (both focusing on silly things rather than just games). Really, Sony does well when their competition is weak but flounder when the competition is strong. Microsoft and Nintendo were on point with the 7th generation but not the 8th. In the 9th, Nintendo is dominating and Microsoft is far more confident and has made strides to improve their platform. They've been the play makers thus far, and Sony has been reacting. Also, keep in mind that all three companies have had management changes since 2013. The people responsible for the blunder that was the XBox One no longer work for the company. Sony has lost executives as well.

I also wouldn't say Sony has been the strongest. Their PS5 line-up is evidence enough of that (it's literally all sequels). I'd say Sony was strong with the PS4 in that they focused on the games. In recent years, they've had a ton of blunders. Censorship, crossplay, the whole "woke" thing people are tired of. And the fact they still haven't shown a price is a sign of weakness, not strength. 

What you have to remember is that generations are decided in the first 18 months. The PS4's success was made in 2013/2014. Since then, they've been coasting. All consoles do to a degree. This is also why you see such market shifts each generation and why you shouldn't bet on (or against) the same horse (people made that mistake with Nintendo twice). Just because the PS4 sold a lot doesn't mean Sony's current management.

And if you think my comment is inaccurate, go look at the top selling titles on PS4. It's mostly Sports, Call of Duty and GTA (the top seller). Uncharter 4 was high but it's also been a bundle for a while. Sony doesn't represent the majority of it's best selling games unlike Nintendo. Heck, there are almost as many FIFA games in the top 20 than there are Sony first party titles (4 vs 5). So in a competition between Microsoft and Sony, the winner is going to be determined by Call of Duty, Sports and GTA which will be on both systems. 

Last, if you are going to say the leaks are almost always wrong, then you still need to back it up. Hardware stuff gets out more than software stuff because there are so many other channels for the info to get out and we've seen numerous times where these reports have been correct. With Sony being coy on the price it's hard to not put stock in the rumors. A $500 price tag is not unbelievable. I think a lot of Sony fans don't want to believe this because it mean's Sony is struggling in some way and they can't have that. 



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I guess it just depends on how much Sony is willing to lose on each console for the first year or so. I remember hearing the PS2 sold at close to $100 loss at launch, which was peanuts compared to the $240 - $300 loss on the PS3 (depending on the model). With PS4, Sony said that after purchasing a game (1st party) they were in the black, going way more conservative after the billions lost during the 7th gen.

Now that they're in a much better position, they could opt to endure some bigger losses this time to try and remain cheaper than Microsoft. However, there's nothing to stop Microsoft from lowering their prices a bit come November in reaction to whatever Sony decides. I remember the N64 was supposed to launch at $249 and they lowered it to $199 at the last minute.



You have a very warped way of looking at the industry. Biased even?

VideoGameAccountant said:

Every generation since the 7th we have seen a shift on who the top dog is. Sony dominated the 6th generation but got their ass handed to them in the 7th generation (they only inched out over Microsoft due to a global presence and then only by a few million). Sony came to dominate the 8th generation because Microsoft and Nintendo shit the bed (both focusing on silly things rather than just games). Really, Sony does well when their competition is weak but flounder when the competition is strong. Microsoft and Nintendo were on point with the 7th generation but not the 8th. In the 9th, Nintendo is dominating and Microsoft is far more confident and has made strides to improve their platform. They've been the play makers thus far, and Sony has been reacting. Also, keep in mind that all three companies have had management changes since 2013. The people responsible for the blunder that was the XBox One no longer work for the company. Sony has lost executives as well.

counting only the 7th and 8th gen isn't a hall decent way to look define a "trend". Why not just count al the gens that the PS and Xbox has been on the market? Sony wom the 5th gen as a newcomer (no small feat by the way) went on stronger with the 6th gen, lost market share with the 7th gen (but still won though, however you wanna dismiss that), then came back stronger than ever with the 8th gen. The only trend that that should show you if you are being honest, is that it literally takes son to fuck up properly for MS to have a fighting chance. 

Is there any indication of that happening right now?

VideoGameAccountant said:

I also wouldn't say Sony has been the strongest. Their PS5 line-up is evidence enough of that (it's literally all sequels). I'd say Sony was strong with the PS4 in that they focused on the games. In recent years, they've had a ton of blunders. Censorship, crossplay, the whole "woke" thing people are tired of. And the fact they still haven't shown a price is a sign of weakness, not strength. 

Thats just deep man... and why I say you have a twisted way of looking at the industry. If all you see in sonys library of games are sequels then you aren't looking. But even if that were the case, gaming is a sequel heavy industry. But simply put, Sony has or will have seven, 8M - 10M+ selling IPs. U4, TLOU2, GTS, GoW, GoT, Spiderman, HZD, And of those 7 IPs, 3 are new IPs, 3 are sequels and one is a remake. And if I were to ad the 4-7M selling IPs to this list, which is where MS offering this gen resides in, then Sony has a shit ton more games there too. 

And MS does not have a single game that has sold up to 10M units all of this gen. Has not introduced a single new IP that has warranted a sequel (unless we count Ori), and somehow, you see sony as the one having cracks? And should you really be talking about sequels when comparing MS to sony? Think about that one.

And all those weaknesses you mentioned, are not weaknesses at all, and are things only the strongest platform can do and et away with. Why in God's name should sony announce the price first? What have the got to prove? Why should sony encourage crossplay? Do you think if MS was in sony's position they would allow crossplay? That you don't understand why MS pushed so hard for cross-play kinda tells me you haven't really given any of what you are saying much thought.

VideoGameAccountant said:

What you have to remember is that generations are decided in the first 18 months. The PS4's success was made in 2013/2014. Since then, they've been coasting. All consoles do to a degree. This is also why you see such market shifts each generation and why you shouldn't bet on (or against) the same horse (people made that mistake with Nintendo twice). Just because the PS4 sold a lot doesn't mean Sony's current management.

And if you think my comment is inaccurate, go look at the top selling titles on PS4. It's mostly Sports, Call of Duty and GTA (the top seller). Uncharter 4 was high but it's also been a bundle for a while. Sony doesn't represent the majority of it's best selling games unlike Nintendo. Heck, there are almost as many FIFA games in the top 20 than there are Sony first party titles (4 vs 5). So in a competition between Microsoft and Sony, the winner is going to be determined by Call of Duty, Sports and GTA which will be on both systems. 

Again... a twisted way of looking at the industry. I really hope you don't believe this. 

VideoGameAccountant said:

Last, if you are going to say the leaks are almost always wrong, then you still need to back it up. Hardware stuff gets out more than software stuff because there are so many other channels for the info to get out and we've seen numerous times where these reports have been correct. With Sony being coy on the price it's hard to not put stock in the rumors. A $500 price tag is not unbelievable. I think a lot of Sony fans don't want to believe this because it mean's Sony is struggling in some way and they can't have that. 

You are the one making claims, the burden of proof lies with you. 

You really are looking or reading too much into this price nonsense. But here's one for you. MS talked about project scarlet at E3 2019. They showed the bloody hardware at the gams awards. They had a full-blown teardown in March 2020. The first time we saw anything pertaining the PS5 was in June. There were rumors that sony was not ready for next-gen and what not....

Do you know, that till this day, we have not seen a single game running on the Series X? And their flagship title (which is a sequel btw) was in such bad shape that it was pushed to next year. 

MS marketing with regards to next gen has been about making as much noise as possible. Empty noise if I might add. Sony's has been more deliberate and reserved, but when they talk people listen and they give a lot of info. It should tell you a lot that on the day MS announces the series S and pricing for both its consoles, its the PS5 (not the Xbox) that is trending on twitter. Or that the PS5 reveal trailer alone has over 35M views on youtube alone, vs 3M for the series S and 14M for the series X.

If this is sony struggling, then I am sure MS wishes they could be struggling too.



$499 or more, I am smelling cocky Sony BS. I would prefer 449 and 349.



 

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Very bold claim. Highly unlikely, but not impossible. Sony would need to prepare for that loss and really push software, accessories, increase PS+ subscriptions to hardware sold ratios to make up for that. Hopefully we will know the prices and release date on Wednesdays.




Didn't took long for another Sony only wins by lucking out.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic said:

You have a very warped way of looking at the industry. Biased even?

VideoGameAccountant said:

Every generation since the 7th we have seen a shift on who the top dog is. Sony dominated the 6th generation but got their ass handed to them in the 7th generation (they only inched out over Microsoft due to a global presence and then only by a few million). Sony came to dominate the 8th generation because Microsoft and Nintendo shit the bed (both focusing on silly things rather than just games). Really, Sony does well when their competition is weak but flounder when the competition is strong. Microsoft and Nintendo were on point with the 7th generation but not the 8th. In the 9th, Nintendo is dominating and Microsoft is far more confident and has made strides to improve their platform. They've been the play makers thus far, and Sony has been reacting. Also, keep in mind that all three companies have had management changes since 2013. The people responsible for the blunder that was the XBox One no longer work for the company. Sony has lost executives as well.

counting only the 7th and 8th gen isn't a hall decent way to look define a "trend". Why not just count al the gens that the PS and Xbox has been on the market? Sony wom the 5th gen as a newcomer (no small feat by the way) went on stronger with the 6th gen, lost market share with the 7th gen (but still won though, however you wanna dismiss that), then came back stronger than ever with the 8th gen. The only trend that that should show you if you are being honest, is that it literally takes son to fuck up properly for MS to have a fighting chance. 

Is there any indication of that happening right now?

VideoGameAccountant said:

I also wouldn't say Sony has been the strongest. Their PS5 line-up is evidence enough of that (it's literally all sequels). I'd say Sony was strong with the PS4 in that they focused on the games. In recent years, they've had a ton of blunders. Censorship, crossplay, the whole "woke" thing people are tired of. And the fact they still haven't shown a price is a sign of weakness, not strength. 

Thats just deep man... and why I say you have a twisted way of looking at the industry. If all you see in sonys library of games are sequels then you aren't looking. But even if that were the case, gaming is a sequel heavy industry. But simply put, Sony has or will have seven, 8M - 10M+ selling IPs. U4, TLOU2, GTS, GoW, GoT, Spiderman, HZD, And of those 7 IPs, 3 are new IPs, 3 are sequels and one is a remake. And if I were to ad the 4-7M selling IPs to this list, which is where MS offering this gen resides in, then Sony has a shit ton more games there too. 

And MS does not have a single game that has sold up to 10M units all of this gen. Has not introduced a single new IP that has warranted a sequel (unless we count Ori), and somehow, you see sony as the one having cracks? And should you really be talking about sequels when comparing MS to sony? Think about that one.

And all those weaknesses you mentioned, are not weaknesses at all, and are things only the strongest platform can do and et away with. Why in God's name should sony announce the price first? What have the got to prove? Why should sony encourage crossplay? Do you think if MS was in sony's position they would allow crossplay? That you don't understand why MS pushed so hard for cross-play kinda tells me you haven't really given any of what you are saying much thought.

VideoGameAccountant said:

What you have to remember is that generations are decided in the first 18 months. The PS4's success was made in 2013/2014. Since then, they've been coasting. All consoles do to a degree. This is also why you see such market shifts each generation and why you shouldn't bet on (or against) the same horse (people made that mistake with Nintendo twice). Just because the PS4 sold a lot doesn't mean Sony's current management.

And if you think my comment is inaccurate, go look at the top selling titles on PS4. It's mostly Sports, Call of Duty and GTA (the top seller). Uncharter 4 was high but it's also been a bundle for a while. Sony doesn't represent the majority of it's best selling games unlike Nintendo. Heck, there are almost as many FIFA games in the top 20 than there are Sony first party titles (4 vs 5). So in a competition between Microsoft and Sony, the winner is going to be determined by Call of Duty, Sports and GTA which will be on both systems. 

Again... a twisted way of looking at the industry. I really hope you don't believe this. 

VideoGameAccountant said:

Last, if you are going to say the leaks are almost always wrong, then you still need to back it up. Hardware stuff gets out more than software stuff because there are so many other channels for the info to get out and we've seen numerous times where these reports have been correct. With Sony being coy on the price it's hard to not put stock in the rumors. A $500 price tag is not unbelievable. I think a lot of Sony fans don't want to believe this because it mean's Sony is struggling in some way and they can't have that. 

You are the one making claims, the burden of proof lies with you. 

You really are looking or reading too much into this price nonsense. But here's one for you. MS talked about project scarlet at E3 2019. They showed the bloody hardware at the gams awards. They had a full-blown teardown in March 2020. The first time we saw anything pertaining the PS5 was in June. There were rumors that sony was not ready for next-gen and what not....

Do you know, that till this day, we have not seen a single game running on the Series X? And their flagship title (which is a sequel btw) was in such bad shape that it was pushed to next year. 

MS marketing with regards to next gen has been about making as much noise as possible. Empty noise if I might add. Sony's has been more deliberate and reserved, but when they talk people listen and they give a lot of info. It should tell you a lot that on the day MS announces the series S and pricing for both its consoles, its the PS5 (not the Xbox) that is trending on twitter. Or that the PS5 reveal trailer alone has over 35M views on youtube alone, vs 3M for the series S and 14M for the series X.

If this is sony struggling, then I am sure MS wishes they could be struggling too.

Don't forget that from what we know Sony delivered devkits long earlier than MS, and if rumours are to be trusted the only major difference from those (I think 1 year ago devkits) to about 6 months ago devkits was the adjustable frequency for clock being enabled.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

At best I can see $399/$449.



PDF said:
The delay in price signals that they were originally high compared to the Xbox X. I bet we see a $499 PS5 and $399-$449 PS5 Digital.

Nope. The delay in pricing doesn't mean anything of the sort.

That and even what MS was doing is just marketing strategy. Nothing more, nothing less. People are just reading more into it than they need to.

If the Xbox stuff didn't leak, chances are that MS would have kept holding out.

Whoever announces price first, shows their hand and concedes an advantage to whoever comes after.

Especially with both of them releasing two SKUs. MS wouldn't want to rice the XSS at $399, then be DOA the second soy prices the PS5D at $399 too. Sony would not want to price the PS5 at $499, only for MS to come at $449 or even $$399 with the XSX...etc. Its just chess.

Funny enough, the fact sony upped shipments for the fiscal year (which in this case for the PS5 only covers Nov 2020 -March 2021, 4 months) from6Mto 10M tells you they always planned on coming in at a price point that could sell units quickly. Mind you, it took sony almost 10 months to ship 10M PS4s, and they plan on shipping that many in 4 months. You don't do that if your price target is $499 and $599. And sony would know that all too well. This is actually why I am almost certain that at least one PS5 SKU will be $399. The only question is if the other SKU will be $449, $499 or $349.