Forums - Sales Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: PS5 and PS5D to be $399 and $349 respectively

Intrinsic said:

You have a very warped way of looking at the industry. Biased even?

VideoGameAccountant said:

Every generation since the 7th we have seen a shift on who the top dog is. Sony dominated the 6th generation but got their ass handed to them in the 7th generation (they only inched out over Microsoft due to a global presence and then only by a few million). Sony came to dominate the 8th generation because Microsoft and Nintendo shit the bed (both focusing on silly things rather than just games). Really, Sony does well when their competition is weak but flounder when the competition is strong. Microsoft and Nintendo were on point with the 7th generation but not the 8th. In the 9th, Nintendo is dominating and Microsoft is far more confident and has made strides to improve their platform. They've been the play makers thus far, and Sony has been reacting. Also, keep in mind that all three companies have had management changes since 2013. The people responsible for the blunder that was the XBox One no longer work for the company. Sony has lost executives as well.

counting only the 7th and 8th gen isn't a hall decent way to look define a "trend". Why not just count al the gens that the PS and Xbox has been on the market? Sony wom the 5th gen as a newcomer (no small feat by the way) went on stronger with the 6th gen, lost market share with the 7th gen (but still won though, however you wanna dismiss that), then came back stronger than ever with the 8th gen. The only trend that that should show you if you are being honest, is that it literally takes son to fuck up properly for MS to have a fighting chance. 

Is there any indication of that happening right now?

VideoGameAccountant said:

I also wouldn't say Sony has been the strongest. Their PS5 line-up is evidence enough of that (it's literally all sequels). I'd say Sony was strong with the PS4 in that they focused on the games. In recent years, they've had a ton of blunders. Censorship, crossplay, the whole "woke" thing people are tired of. And the fact they still haven't shown a price is a sign of weakness, not strength. 

Thats just deep man... and why I say you have a twisted way of looking at the industry. If all you see in sonys library of games are sequels then you aren't looking. But even if that were the case, gaming is a sequel heavy industry. But simply put, Sony has or will have seven, 8M - 10M+ selling IPs. U4, TLOU2, GTS, GoW, GoT, Spiderman, HZD, And of those 7 IPs, 3 are new IPs, 3 are sequels and one is a remake. And if I were to ad the 4-7M selling IPs to this list, which is where MS offering this gen resides in, then Sony has a shit ton more games there too. 

And MS does not have a single game that has sold up to 10M units all of this gen. Has not introduced a single new IP that has warranted a sequel (unless we count Ori), and somehow, you see sony as the one having cracks? And should you really be talking about sequels when comparing MS to sony? Think about that one.

And all those weaknesses you mentioned, are not weaknesses at all, and are things only the strongest platform can do and et away with. Why in God's name should sony announce the price first? What have the got to prove? Why should sony encourage crossplay? Do you think if MS was in sony's position they would allow crossplay? That you don't understand why MS pushed so hard for cross-play kinda tells me you haven't really given any of what you are saying much thought.

VideoGameAccountant said:

What you have to remember is that generations are decided in the first 18 months. The PS4's success was made in 2013/2014. Since then, they've been coasting. All consoles do to a degree. This is also why you see such market shifts each generation and why you shouldn't bet on (or against) the same horse (people made that mistake with Nintendo twice). Just because the PS4 sold a lot doesn't mean Sony's current management.

And if you think my comment is inaccurate, go look at the top selling titles on PS4. It's mostly Sports, Call of Duty and GTA (the top seller). Uncharter 4 was high but it's also been a bundle for a while. Sony doesn't represent the majority of it's best selling games unlike Nintendo. Heck, there are almost as many FIFA games in the top 20 than there are Sony first party titles (4 vs 5). So in a competition between Microsoft and Sony, the winner is going to be determined by Call of Duty, Sports and GTA which will be on both systems. 

Again... a twisted way of looking at the industry. I really hope you don't believe this. 

VideoGameAccountant said:

Last, if you are going to say the leaks are almost always wrong, then you still need to back it up. Hardware stuff gets out more than software stuff because there are so many other channels for the info to get out and we've seen numerous times where these reports have been correct. With Sony being coy on the price it's hard to not put stock in the rumors. A $500 price tag is not unbelievable. I think a lot of Sony fans don't want to believe this because it mean's Sony is struggling in some way and they can't have that. 

You are the one making claims, the burden of proof lies with you. 

You really are looking or reading too much into this price nonsense. But here's one for you. MS talked about project scarlet at E3 2019. They showed the bloody hardware at the gams awards. They had a full-blown teardown in March 2020. The first time we saw anything pertaining the PS5 was in June. There were rumors that sony was not ready for next-gen and what not....

Do you know, that till this day, we have not seen a single game running on the Series X? And their flagship title (which is a sequel btw) was in such bad shape that it was pushed to next year. 

MS marketing with regards to next gen has been about making as much noise as possible. Empty noise if I might add. Sony's has been more deliberate and reserved, but when they talk people listen and they give a lot of info. It should tell you a lot that on the day MS announces the series S and pricing for both its consoles, its the PS5 (not the Xbox) that is trending on twitter. Or that the PS5 reveal trailer alone has over 35M views on youtube alone, vs 3M for the series S and 14M for the series X.

If this is sony struggling, then I am sure MS wishes they could be struggling too.

Don't forget that from what we know Sony delivered devkits long earlier than MS, and if rumours are to be trusted the only major difference from those (I think 1 year ago devkits) to about 6 months ago devkits was the adjustable frequency for clock being enabled.



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The delay in price signals that they were originally high compared to the Xbox X. I bet we see a $499 PS5 and $399-$449 PS5 Digital.



 

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At best I can see $399/$449.



PDF said:
The delay in price signals that they were originally high compared to the Xbox X. I bet we see a $499 PS5 and $399-$449 PS5 Digital.

Nope. The delay in pricing doesn't mean anything of the sort.

That and even what MS was doing is just marketing strategy. Nothing more, nothing less. People are just reading more into it than they need to.

If the Xbox stuff didn't leak, chances are that MS would have kept holding out.

Whoever announces price first, shows their hand and concedes an advantage to whoever comes after.

Especially with both of them releasing two SKUs. MS wouldn't want to rice the XSS at $399, then be DOA the second soy prices the PS5D at $399 too. Sony would not want to price the PS5 at $499, only for MS to come at $449 or even $$399 with the XSX...etc. Its just chess.

Funny enough, the fact sony upped shipments for the fiscal year (which in this case for the PS5 only covers Nov 2020 -March 2021, 4 months) from6Mto 10M tells you they always planned on coming in at a price point that could sell units quickly. Mind you, it took sony almost 10 months to ship 10M PS4s, and they plan on shipping that many in 4 months. You don't do that if your price target is $499 and $599. And sony would know that all too well. This is actually why I am almost certain that at least one PS5 SKU will be $399. The only question is if the other SKU will be $449, $499 or $349.



Intrinsic said:

Funny enough, the fact sony upped shipments for the fiscal year (which in this case for the PS5 only covers Nov 2020 -March 2021, 4 months) from 6Mto 10M tells you they always planned on coming in at a price point that could sell units quickly. Mind you, it took sony almost 10 months to ship 10M PS4s, and they plan on shipping that many in 4 months.

Uh...no?

Production of the PS5 started somewhere around early to mid-June. From mid-June to end of March, it's over 9 months, so pretty much the same as the PS4. Sales start in late November and they better have something to sell by then (so units_are_ shipping right now).



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PDF said:
The delay in price signals that they were originally high compared to the Xbox X. I bet we see a $499 PS5 and $399-$449 PS5 Digital.

Sony wouldn´t go for 599.99 again since Ps3 fiasco, no matter how you wanna spin it. 599 was not happening. Cerny even said they have a responsability of being cost effective to their massive userbase. 

399.99 & 449.99 are the likely prices for PlayStation 5. 

i can see 499.99e happening sure but that is the ceiling for Ps5 price. 



drkohler said:
Intrinsic said:

Funny enough, the fact sony upped shipments for the fiscal year (which in this case for the PS5 only covers Nov 2020 -March 2021, 4 months) from 6Mto 10M tells you they always planned on coming in at a price point that could sell units quickly. Mind you, it took sony almost 10 months to ship 10M PS4s, and they plan on shipping that many in 4 months.

Uh...no?

Production of the PS5 started somewhere around early to mid-June. From mid-June to end of March, it's over 9 months, so pretty much the same as the PS4. Sales start in late November and they better have something to sell by then (so units_are_ shipping right now).

Pls stop confusing yourself.

No one cars when production starts, what is tracked is how many shipments are done in any given quarter. In the first 2 quarters of the PS4's availability, (q3 + q4 2013/14 fiscal year, Oct 2013 - March 2014), sony was able to ship 7M PS4s in that timeframe. 

Sony is going to ship 10M PS5s in the same time frame. 

It took sony till the q1/q2 2014/15 (apr 2014 - sept 2014) to ship 10M PS4s because having sold through 10M PS4s was announced in August at GDC in 2014. Sony plans on achieving the same feat by March or April 2021.



I'm going to be honest, VGChartz has one of the worst way to do multiquote. I don't know why its so asinine here. 

Intrinsic said:

Words

counting only the 7th and 8th gen isn't a hall decent way to look define a "trend". Why not just count al the gens that the PS and Xbox has been on the market? Sony wom the 5th gen as a newcomer (no small feat by the way) went on stronger with the 6th gen, lost market share with the 7th gen (but still won though, however you wanna dismiss that), then came back stronger than ever with the 8th gen. The only trend that that should show you if you are being honest, is that it literally takes son to fuck up properly for MS to have a fighting chance. 

Is there any indication of that happening right now?

First off, Microsoft wasn't around in the 5th Generation, so it makes no sense comparing that. Even still, the 6th Generation (PS2) is the only time we've seen the prior competitor remain on top. That was about 15 years ago. Since then, we've seen a shift in who's on top. Sony was bested by Nintendo and Microsoft (and yes, I'm willing to say that because Sony's marginal lead was only a result of Microsoft being less competitive in certain countries. Wasn't even close in others). Sony was on top on Gen 8 and now we are looking at Gen 9 and if the pattern holds, we'll see Sony on the bottom. It's like if I were to point out how every president has been followed by one of the opposite party and you go "but but what about Reagan and Bush". 

Thats just deep man... and why I say you have a twisted way of looking at the industry. If all you see in sonys library of games are sequels then you aren't looking. But even if that were the case, gaming is a sequel heavy industry. But simply put, Sony has or will have seven, 8M - 10M+ selling IPs. U4, TLOU2, GTS, GoW, GoT, Spiderman, HZD, And of those 7 IPs, 3 are new IPs, 3 are sequels and one is a remake. And if I were to ad the 4-7M selling IPs to this list, which is where MS offering this gen resides in, then Sony has a shit ton more games there too. 

And MS does not have a single game that has sold up to 10M units all of this gen. Has not introduced a single new IP that has warranted a sequel (unless we count Ori), and somehow, you see sony as the one having cracks? And should you really be talking about sequels when comparing MS to sony? Think about that one.

And all those weaknesses you mentioned, are not weaknesses at all, and are things only the strongest platform can do and et away with. Why in God's name should sony announce the price first? What have the got to prove? Why should sony encourage crossplay? Do you think if MS was in sony's position they would allow crossplay? That you don't understand why MS pushed so hard for cross-play kinda tells me you haven't really given any of what you are saying much thought.

You can look at most of the titles on the PS5 and a lot of the big hitters coming from Sony are sequels. Horizon Zero Dawn, Rachet and Clank, Spiderman, even Sackboy and Astro's Lounge are part of the same series. The few original titles aren't going to do much (sorry, Bugsnax and Goodbye Volcano High aren't going to set the world on fire). Even their big surprise at the end is a remake of Demon Souls  It's hard not to look at the PS5 line-up and see that there are a lot of similar games to what was on PS5. Same old doesn't always work. You can look at New Super Mario U as an example. Keep in mind, New Super Mario Bros Wii sold over 30 million. Sequels alone aren't a recipe for success.

Also, got to love the "those weaknesses aren't weaknesses, their strengths." You might as well tell me Nintendo Switch Online is a strength with that logic. This is why people get annoyed with Sony fans because they can never criticize their preferred company, even when it was obviously a bad idea. 

Again... a twisted way of looking at the industry. I really hope you don't believe this. 

I've noticed you've used this term a lot in this discussion. Here you don't even bother to explain why I have a twisted view (my guess is because you can't). 

I don't think this comment warrants much of a response, so I'll keep it brief here. First, yes, management changes matter because those are the people who are calling the shots. Phil Spencer isn't going to make the same decisions that Don Mattrick will. Second, look up what a substitute in economics is. If your major selling point is sports game, than people may just leave for a better box that plays sports games.

You are the one making claims, the burden of proof lies with you. 

You really are looking or reading too much into this price nonsense. But here's one for you. MS talked about project scarlet at E3 2019. They showed the bloody hardware at the gams awards. They had a full-blown teardown in March 2020. The first time we saw anything pertaining the PS5 was in June. There were rumors that sony was not ready for next-gen and what not....

Do you know, that till this day, we have not seen a single game running on the Series X? And their flagship title (which is a sequel btw) was in such bad shape that it was pushed to next year. 

MS marketing with regards to next gen has been about making as much noise as possible. Empty noise if I might add. Sony's has been more deliberate and reserved, but when they talk people listen and they give a lot of info. It should tell you a lot that on the day MS announces the series S and pricing for both its consoles, its the PS5 (not the Xbox) that is trending on twitter. Or that the PS5 reveal trailer alone has over 35M views on youtube alone, vs 3M for the series S and 14M for the series X.

If this is sony struggling, then I am sure MS wishes they could be struggling too.

The burden of proof is not with me because I've pointed out examples where insider knowledge turned out to be true. It's with the Sony guys know to show that they are wrong. 

Also, your argument is silly because, let's be real, ALL of the games shown thus far have been running on high end PCs. This is why a lot of Sony's games look better in the promotional trailers than they actually do. Graphics and performance won't matter in the end anyway.

It's also a very fanboy thing to say that Sony's marketing has been "reserved". No, I wouldn't call Sony's lame GDC speech as "reserved". I wouldn't call the tepid Summer showcase "reserved". Sony's messaging looks disjointed. They are relying on their previous success to coast through with the PS5 which, as I laid out earlier, doesn't always work. Microsoft has been far more proactive. I wouldn't say everything they've done has been great, but it's hard to say they've done any worse than Sony. 

My personal opinion on this is that both systems will do well in the fall and then struggle thereafter as people look to cheaper alternatives to game as a result of the COVID induced recession. Microsoft is at least better poised for this scenario (with the $300 box) but they aren't immune. Nevertheless, I think the reason you think I have a "twisted" view is I don't worship the almighty Sony. You're post has just be lavishing praise on your preferred billion dollar corporation. You even go so far as to twist the censorship and crossplay issues as good things for Sony rather than blunders. In fact, I think this article from Business Insider illustrates this point very well and echos some of the things I was saying in this post. I think you are unable to look at Sony objectively, which is why you see what I'm saying as "twisted". 



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VideoGameAccountant said:

I'm going to be honest, VGChartz has one of the worst way to do multiquote. I don't know why its so asinine here. 

snip...

I am plenty objective friend... what  I find twisted about what you are saying, is that you are stating conjecture based on absolutely nothing tangible and what seems to entirely your personal preferences a fact. 

Case in point, to suggest that the "trend" is that leading platforms switch sides every new gen is just flat out ridiculous. There is a reason why everything happens, and fromlooking at what is happening,its very easy to dicern what willor could most likely hapen.

eg...

  • $599 PS3 in 2006 mostly due to sony building in a PS2 into every PS3 and them pushing the new Blu-ray format.
  • Coming out one year after the 360.
  • Complicated architecture that meant everything looks and ran better on the cheaper Xbox consoles.
  • Poor online network which was also lacking very important features. 

Those are the reasons the PS3 struggled, those are the seasons the PS3lost market share to MS. But even then, sony still managed to outsell the 360 for all but one year that both consoles were on the market.

Fast forward to 2020

  • sony is coming from its strongest gen ever.
  • PS has a healthy exhaustive list of multiple 10M selling first-party titles and a lot of other exclusive commercially successful third party titles. And that's not changed at all.
  • There isn't the hubris of them launching at $599 this time around either.
  • They have already announced games that people are excited for and is building a lot of hype.

None of that suggests that sony s somehow in some kinda bad shape or are dropping the ball or resting on their laurels. You may not be interested in their games/exclusives, but the stats don't lie. And i can't be bothered to list of just how many exclusive games sony has that has sold in the 5M - 12M range. And the simple fact of the matter is, we cannot say the same for Xbox.

Sony has a proven strategy, that has worked for them all of this gen and that they seem intent on doubling-down on with net gen. I mean, just look at the number of exclusives they have released this year alone so far. There is absolutely nothing about what sony has done so far to suggest that they are dropping the ball or about to be dethroned. Can you tell me a single thing MShas announced or talked about or shown tat has generated more engagement or traction that a lot of the things sony has said? That's not me being a fanboy, it's just me stating the obvious. Sony has the momentum, and until they do something stupid, or stop trying, then thy arent losing it.

Again, you don't have to like what they show or talk about, or hell... you don't even have to be impressed, but I can tell you this much, a LOT of people do like it and are impressed. A significantly lot more than seem to b interested in anything that has come out of the Xbox camp... and that's how you gauge interest and momentum.



Intrinsic said:
PDF said:
The delay in price signals that they were originally high compared to the Xbox X. I bet we see a $499 PS5 and $399-$449 PS5 Digital.

Nope. The delay in pricing doesn't mean anything of the sort.

That and even what MS was doing is just marketing strategy. Nothing more, nothing less. People are just reading more into it than they need to.

If the Xbox stuff didn't leak, chances are that MS would have kept holding out.

Whoever announces price first, shows their hand and concedes an advantage to whoever comes after.

Especially with both of them releasing two SKUs. MS wouldn't want to rice the XSS at $399, then be DOA the second soy prices the PS5D at $399 too. Sony would not want to price the PS5 at $499, only for MS to come at $449 or even $$399 with the XSX...etc. Its just chess.

Funny enough, the fact sony upped shipments for the fiscal year (which in this case for the PS5 only covers Nov 2020 -March 2021, 4 months) from6Mto 10M tells you they always planned on coming in at a price point that could sell units quickly. Mind you, it took sony almost 10 months to ship 10M PS4s, and they plan on shipping that many in 4 months. You don't do that if your price target is $499 and $599. And sony would know that all too well. This is actually why I am almost certain that at least one PS5 SKU will be $399. The only question is if the other SKU will be $449, $499 or $349.

I'd hafta assume Nvidia 3000 Series GPU's had something to do with the delay, even though Nvidia would have a general idea of what the consoles would cost for consumers. They wouldn't know exactly how much MS and SNY would subsidize them though. 

RDNA 2 Big Navi isn't out yet for AMD and that's what's in the consoles. The sooner Nvidia knew the console pricing, the sooner they would have a better idea of what Big Navi PC cards would cost. AMD wouldn't want that. 

Considering the XBSS 'leak' didn't happen until after the recent Nvidia 3000 announcement happened, which apparently MS planned for the week after the leak, it's not surprising. MS and SNY may have had to wait until a later date, or after Nvidia announced, one or the other. Since SNY was always going to wait for MS, now SNY can go.