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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3+X360 vs PS4+X1 - Predictions

         

8th gen twins will beat 7th gen

2021: Jul-Sep 1 $500.00 7.14%
 
2021: Oct-Dec 5 $1,301.00 35.71%
 
2022 2 $1,050.00 14.29%
 
2023 1 $500.00 7.14%
 
2024 onward 0 $0.00 0%
 
Never 5 $1,310.00 35.71%
 
 
Totals: 14 $4,661.00  
Enter Bet

The way production lines are going, I bet never. Not unless they start producing more. But right now, I don't think enough even exist to outsell the previous gen so unless Sony and Microsoft think about production after the launch of next gen, this is it.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

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I put a big 1k bet on oct 2021.

We are talking 12Munits combined in a little over a year. They will hit that. Cause when the new consoles are released, there will be fire sales all over the place. We will be seeing PS4s and XB1s for under $199.



You should add PS2+XB to the discussion, they did about 182 million combined.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I predict that the PS4 and XB1 will crawl barely ahead during the later half of 2022 when the PS4 is on its last legs.

Microsoft has already announced that the Xbox One S is the only XB1 model left in production, and after last month's NPD it looks like that production run's end will very likely coincide with the launch of the XSX and XSS, so the XB1 lifetime sales will be approximately 49m, based on VGC's current tally of 48.2m. I expect the XB1 to be as good as phased out by November this year, so for Microsoft the holidays will be entirely about XSX and XSS.

Sony's forecast for the PS4 is 119.4m LTD by March 2021 (forecast made after the corona boost was already in the books), but lifetime sales of close to 124.5m will be required due to the XB1's final figure. Those missing ~5m are just about all the PS4 will be able to muster in its final stage of life, so basically LTD shipments of ~123.5m by March 2022 and the small rest of its production run afterwards.

VGC compares sell-through numbers, that's why my prediction is the later half of 2022. Of course, this is such a close call that the 8th gen might as well fall short of the 7th gen, but right now I am giving the edge to the PS4 and XB1.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Intrinsic said:
I put a big 1k bet on oct 2021.

We are talking 12Munits combined in a little over a year. They will hit that. Cause when the new consoles are released, there will be fire sales all over the place. We will be seeing PS4s and XB1s for under $199.

Only if they actually have something to sell.

In Microsoft's case, I really doubt they'll go back to produce the XBO ever again. The Series S will replace both the One S and One X at the pricepoint of the One S and come with full backwards compatibility, so for them there's no reason to produce the current gen again.

In Sony's case, I doubt they'll let the console die as fast. But with the PS5 having backwards compatibility and more and more games working cross-gen, I expect a much faster switch to next gen then compared to at the end of PS2 or even PS3 life cycle.

In other words, I don't expect more than 10M more PS4 actually getting produced, and with the XBO already being EOL, it won't be enough to surpass last gen.



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PS4 will reach 120m next year and will die out at 125m-130m.
Xbox will die out at 50m. So, it will be close.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Intrinsic said:
I put a big 1k bet on oct 2021.

We are talking 12Munits combined in a little over a year. They will hit that. Cause when the new consoles are released, there will be fire sales all over the place. We will be seeing PS4s and XB1s for under $199.

Only if they actually have something to sell.

In Microsoft's case, I really doubt they'll go back to produce the XBO ever again. The Series S will replace both the One S and One X at the pricepoint of the One S and come with full backwards compatibility, so for them there's no reason to produce the current gen again.

In Sony's case, I doubt they'll let the console die as fast. But with the PS5 having backwards compatibility and more and more games working cross-gen, I expect a much faster switch to next gen then compared to at the end of PS2 or even PS3 life cycle.

In other words, I don't expect more than 10M more PS4 actually getting produced, and with the XBO already being EOL, it won't be enough to surpass last gen.

Oh I totally agree with you. But I made a bet and had to justify it. Go big or go home.

In truth though,I believe (and I have said so in the past) that it would every hard for the PS4to go past 125M. Especially being that the PS5 is BC with the PS4. What that means is that a LOT of current PS4 owners are going to sell their PS4 to facilitate the purchase of their PS5.No reason to hold onto the PS4. So imagine that there will be like 30-40M used PS4sin the market over the next 2 years. Why buy a brandnewPS4 for $199 when you can probably get a used one for as little as $150/$100.

I mean I sold my PS4 pro last year when I knew I could still get around $400 for the bundle I was selling (PS4pro, 2 controllers, vertical stand) because at that point I knew I was going to get a PS5, and that any game released between then and now is a game I would rather be playing on the PS5. And well, I have a Switch. 

I expect a lot of people will be ding the same.



I am a bit late for this question, and with a lot more information than the original responses. Based on sales from november and the first week of december, it is looking like the PS4 got hit hard by the ps5. PS3 sold 900k on its 8th November, and as of right now PS4 sold around 500k..

From year 8 onwards, ps3 sold 8.2 million, so if the trend of selling more than the PS4 continues, we might see an extreme stop by the PS4 and that probably means that they won't be able to sell the ~10 million gap there is. XOne seems like it won't add much more to the total either. 

It is incredible to see how much impact a new console has on its predecessor. 



If they do, probably by 2022. Xbox One has about 0.75-2 million left in it, I think. It might just barely pass 50 million.

PS4 is performing a little worse right now than I expected. 130 million doesn't seem possible right now unless Sony changes up its strategy. On the more pessimistic end, PS4 has about 6-8 million left. On the more optimistic end, 11-13 million.

Sony's strategy with the PS4 right now is baffling me. Both the PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro are still at their prices of $299.99 and $399.99. They need price cuts.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:

If they do, probably by 2022. Xbox One has about 0.75-2 million left in it, I think. It might just barely pass 50 million.

PS4 is performing a little worse right now than I expected. 130 million doesn't seem possible right now unless Sony changes up its strategy. On the more pessimistic end, PS4 has about 6-8 million left. On the more optimistic end, 11-13 million.

Sony's strategy with the PS4 right now is baffling me. Both the PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro are still at their prices of $299.99 and $399.99. They need price cuts.

Hi @Wman1996

I agree with you, Sony seems to want to kill PS4 and send everyone to PS5. If that is their strategy, it seems to be working.

Both PS3 and PS4 got their successor at the start of year 8. So we are having very similar situations. Ps3 november went from 1.9M to 0.9M on the release of the PS4, while the PS4 went from 2.4 to 0.5. December seems to be a bit better for PS4, but still way lower. You have to consider that Holidays are the most important months, so if this keeps up, we could be seeing about a 3.5M year for PS4, if you add that to the total, that is 117M after 8 years, then maybe 1.5, and 0.5?

I might just make a really unpopular statement now.. I think there is a strong chance PS4 doesn't reach 120M lifetime.

I hope I'm wrong, hopefully Sony will improve its marketing for PS4 and reach much higher.