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Intrinsic said:
I put a big 1k bet on oct 2021.

We are talking 12Munits combined in a little over a year. They will hit that. Cause when the new consoles are released, there will be fire sales all over the place. We will be seeing PS4s and XB1s for under $199.

Only if they actually have something to sell.

In Microsoft's case, I really doubt they'll go back to produce the XBO ever again. The Series S will replace both the One S and One X at the pricepoint of the One S and come with full backwards compatibility, so for them there's no reason to produce the current gen again.

In Sony's case, I doubt they'll let the console die as fast. But with the PS5 having backwards compatibility and more and more games working cross-gen, I expect a much faster switch to next gen then compared to at the end of PS2 or even PS3 life cycle.

In other words, I don't expect more than 10M more PS4 actually getting produced, and with the XBO already being EOL, it won't be enough to surpass last gen.