Look at those sexy legs on Ghost of Tsushima. Very surprising. That has to b Sony's highest selling first party PS4 game in Japan.
The_Liquid_Laser said:
It sold twice as much this week on Switch than on PS4. How is that not better legs? |
My mistake I thought you linked first week sales along with LTD sales.
Either way the problem I had was "much". I think they both had good legs considering their install base.
Farsala said:
My mistake I thought you linked first week sales along with LTD sales. Either way the problem I had was "much". I think they both had good legs considering their install base. |
The Switch version sold about twice as much as the PS4 version this week. Normally a 2:1 ratio can be described as "much".
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
curl-6 said:
yeah I saw that, plus he successfully called RE8 both in terms of content and when it would be revealed, so he clearly has some good sources. I'm just worried Capcom will make it some dumb spinoff even though a proper entry would sell 10 times as much, since they always seem to go out of their way to screw Switch owners. |
Yeah it’s Capcom so I understand your concerns. If it really is a real MH though just think of the potential it can have
tbone51 said:
Yeah it’s Capcom so I understand your concerns. If it really is a real MH though just think of the potential it can have |
Oh yeah, a proper full-blooded non-gimped Switch MH could be a 10 million plus seller. It would be gargantuan in Japan, plus the Switch has global reach and the franchise has never been more popular in the West.
The_Liquid_Laser said:
The Switch version sold about twice as much as the PS4 version this week. Normally a 2:1 ratio can be described as "much". |
When 2:1 is simply 3k sales, it really isn't "much".
RolStoppable said:
Nope, not in Japan. Worldwide would be a different story, but Japan has been good for Switch since its launch. 2020 will bring Switch's LTD to at least 17.5m by the end of the year and that's difficult to top when so many people already own a Switch. You have to remember that the 3DS had three ~5m years in the beginning and then dropped to a good 3m in 2014 despite the launch of the New 3DS and New 3DS XL. Said hardware launch was also accompanied by Monster Hunter 4; worth mentioning, because a few people have already talked about Monster Hunter as a key factor in driving Switch hardware sales in 2021. Switch getting closer to saturation is why I think that a new hardware model in 2021 will be mandatory to get above 5m for the year. But the 6m+ to be up year over year are out of reach. |
I'm curious, what do you consider to be the point where saturation is certain? Sales data wise, the saturation point for the 3ds and DS were 15 million and 20 million, respectively. Personally, I think saturation is certain generally after the system's second year after its peak.
RolStoppable said:
Nope, not in Japan. Worldwide would be a different story, but Japan has been good for Switch since its launch. 2020 will bring Switch's LTD to at least 17.5m by the end of the year and that's difficult to top when so many people already own a Switch. You have to remember that the 3DS had three ~5m years in the beginning and then dropped to a good 3m in 2014 despite the launch of the New 3DS and New 3DS XL. Said hardware launch was also accompanied by Monster Hunter 4; worth mentioning, because a few people have already talked about Monster Hunter as a key factor in driving Switch hardware sales in 2021. Switch getting closer to saturation is why I think that a new hardware model in 2021 will be mandatory to get above 5m for the year. But the 6m+ to be up year over year are out of reach. |
Yeah NSW will be somewhere between 17.5mil to 18mil (6.1mil-6.6mil in 2020), that said I don’t really think saturation is going to play a role anytime soon.
the NSW probably has 300k-500k people going out every week to get a NSW for themselves now (estimate of lotteries). Lotteries are still happening and if demand still isn’t fulfilled by end of year, and/or stock makes it sell 6mil instead of doing 7mil+ like it could of done the. I still think it’s possible for being up YoY if it’s closer to 6 or hits 6.5mil.
of course close to 7mil or over then I’ll think otherwise, that said I don’t know. Looking at it by quarter figures or weekly avg we have this so far in 2020
Famitsu Sell thru 2020
Q1: 1703k (131k Weekly)
Q2: 967k (74k Weekly)
Q3: 945k (105k Weekly [9weeks so far]
Q4: ????k
In 2021, it’s too far away to get an idea but let’s say demand isn’t fully done by end of dec. and it carries for a bit longer. Q1 having SM3DAS in mid Feb, as well as rumored MH without a new hardware coming imo could push Q1 to 2mil (a weekly avg of 154k).
1st and 2nd weeks for 2021 also has an advantage with how it dates stack up. Putting it high end for sales imo. With the spill over effect we could see huge gains early for being up YoY
2020
W1: 284k
W2: 116k
W3: 95k
W4: 68k
then next few weeks were being supply restraint especially in Feb/March.
Early thought but I can see something like this for 2021
Q1: 2mil
Q2: 1.5mil
Q3: 1.5mil
Q4: 2.0mil
Tot: 7mil
Q1-Q3 being up as long as a good amount of software comes out followed by being down YoY for holiday but still strong. Q2 next year will play a huge role imo. Especially if MH comes out and supply issues resolve
From the Wii Fit vs Ring Fit Adventure thread, which would be relevant here as Ring Fit continues to be sold out across a lot of different markets around the world, current price on Amazon.co.jp is ￥12,000, and the case is similar in many markets across the Globe. The supply recently has imrpoved as the game was actually selling for ￥14,000 in mid-August. Also, the game just launched in China and I'm going to take a wild guess that the game is going to do well there as well. In Japan I expect it to sell over 3M by the end of the year if there is enough supply.
Prior Ring Fit Adventure Updates: July 30th,
Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:
There are three weeks left for Ring Fit Adventure until the end of Q3, if Nintendo ships 50K on average the performance of the game prior to the holidays will actually be stronger than it's launch quarter. Still, we've seen supply fluctuate and the average so far this quarter has been 28K, I hope we actually see a big shipment to end the quarter strongly. So I'm theorizing that although they are possibly stockpiling for the holidays they might be able to ship 200K right before the end of their fiscal quarter. For me, I'm still not entirely sure Nintendo will be able to supply 10 million copies for the remainder of the year but I think based on what we are seeing is that the game will easily surpass 3M in Japan this year if there was sufficient supply.
Ring Fit will end up selling above Wii Sports in Japan, by the simple virtue that the Wii only managed to sell 12.75M units in Japan, compare that to the Switch, the franchise is prime for growth. At the end of the day in Japan lifetime sales will probably end up beyond 5M because I don't think Nintendo will be in a hurry to release Ring Fit 2, I'd expect Wii Sports spiritual successor to not come until 2022 and it will probably utilize a different peripheral. Ring Fit is likely to be the only game that utilizes this specific peripheral to this generation. So it would be a better idea of just updating this game from and release Sports with different peripherals ensuring separate peripheral lines of products. The sequel to be released for the Switch 2, allowing people to make use of the RingCon and Legstrap, making it cheaper for existing owners - while allowing them to continue utilizing the same production line.
Aug Amazon update: 7 Aug
Sep 6th Amazon:
Media Create South Korea, Taiwan(last 5 weeks:
In terms of Worldwide, we are seeing the game continue to perform very strongly in some of Nintendo's top markets. Based on these trends, I think we can expect Ring Fit Adventure to be around 7 million shipped by the end of the quarter. That's provided Nintendo is able to ship that many while stockpiling for the holidays. If there is sufficient stock built up for the holidays they could easily ship >15M Worldwide by the end of the year, with around 20% coming from Japan.
Also basing the popularity in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan - I'd expect the game to perform very strongly in China(it launched this week). Tencent is distributing the game and it doesn't contain the cartridge, and because it's being distributed and assembled to China, it's likely to be very profitable for both Nintendo and Tencent if ends up being the top-performing Switch game there. Tencent being the geniuses they are have been promoting it with unhealthy food. Overall China could end up being a major factor in the future growth of both the Switch and Ring Fit Sales worldwide if it ends up being the game that really becomes a mass fad there... I don't think supply problems for the rest of the World will ever be fully resolved. According to some users on Twitter the game sold-out online in China during the launch(this has not been confirmed by a major news channel).
Like I said a while ago, the creators of Wii Fit and Wii Sports are likely to have another game that could enter the zeitgeist and sell above 30 million. I don't think Nintendo has really pushed Ring Fit Adventure marketing-wise and they could very easily with a major update. But because it took them so long to scale up production after realizing it was a hit, now that production is finally at the scale needed - well sky and a sequel are the only limits. I honestly expect it to outsell New Horizon in the final quarter of the year if there are a major update and enough supply(and Animal Crossing will sell a ton).
Last edited by noshten - on 06 September 2020
| noshten said: From the Wii Fit vs Ring Fit Adventure thread, which would be relevant here as Ring Fit continues to be sold out across a lot of different markets around the world, current price on Amazon.co.jp is ￥12,000, and the case is similar in many markets across the Globe. Also, the game just launched in China and I'm going to take a wild guess that the game is going to do well there as well. In Japan I expect it to sell over 3M by the end of the year if there is enough supply. Prior Ring Fit Adventure Updates: July 30th, Ring Fit Adventure sales in Japan by Quarter:
There are three weeks left for Ring Fit Adventure until the end of Q3, if Nintendo ships 50K on average the performance of the game prior to the holidays will actually be stronger than it's launch quarter. Still, we've seen supply fluctuate and the average so far this quarter has been 28K, I hope we actually see a big shipment to end the quarter strongly. So I'm theorizing that although they are possibly stockpiling for the holidays they might be able to ship 200K right before the end of their fiscal quarter. For me, I'm still not entirely sure Nintendo will be able to supply 10 million copies for the remainder of the year but I think based on what we are seeing is that the game will easily surpass 3M in Japan this year if there was sufficient supply.
Ring Fit will end up selling above Wii Sports in Japan, by the simple virtue that the Wii only managed to sell 10M units in Japan, compare that to the Switch, the franchise is prime for growth. At the end of the day in Japan lifetime sales will probably end up beyond 5M because I don't think Nintendo will be in a hurry to release Ring Fit 2, I'd expect Wii Sports spiritual successor to not come until 2022 and it will probably utilize a different peripheral. Ring Fit is likely to be the only game that utilizes this specific peripheral to this generation. So it would be a better idea of just updating this game from Aug Amazon update: 7 Aug
Sep 6th Amazon:
Media Create South Korea, Taiwan(last 5 weeks:
In terms of Worldwide, we are seeing the game continue to perform very strongly in some of Nintendo's top markets. Based on these trends, I think we can expect Ring Fit Adventure to be around 7 million shipped by the end of the quarter. That's provided Nintendo is able to ship that many while stockpiling for the holidays. If there is sufficient stock built up for the holidays they could easily ship >15M Worldwide by the end of the year, with around 20% coming from Japan. Also basing the popularity in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan - I'd expect the game to perform very strongly in China(it launched this week). Tencent is distributing the game and it doesn't contain the cartridge, and because it's being distributed and assembled to China, it's likely to be very profitable for both Nintendo and Tencent if ends up being the top-performing Switch game there. Tencent being the geniuses they are have been promoting it with unhealthy food. Overall China could end up being a major factor in the future growth of both the Switch and Ring Fit Sales worldwide if it ends up being the game that really becomes a mass fad there... I don't think supply problems for the rest of the World will ever be fully resolved. According to some users on Twitter the game sold-out online in China during the launch(this has not been confirmed by a major news channel). Like I said a while ago, the creators of Wii Fit and Wii Sports are likely to have another game that could enter the zeitgeist and sell above 30 million. I don't think Nintendo has really pushed Ring Fit Adventure marketing-wise and they could very easily with a major update. But because it took them so long to scale up production after realizing it was a hit, now that production is finally at the scale needed - well sky and a sequel are the only limits. I honestly expect it to outsell New Horizon in the final quarter of the year if there are a major update and enough supply(and Animal Crossing will sell a ton). |
Great analysis
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