RolStoppable said:
Nope, not in Japan. Worldwide would be a different story, but Japan has been good for Switch since its launch. 2020 will bring Switch's LTD to at least 17.5m by the end of the year and that's difficult to top when so many people already own a Switch. You have to remember that the 3DS had three ~5m years in the beginning and then dropped to a good 3m in 2014 despite the launch of the New 3DS and New 3DS XL. Said hardware launch was also accompanied by Monster Hunter 4; worth mentioning, because a few people have already talked about Monster Hunter as a key factor in driving Switch hardware sales in 2021. Switch getting closer to saturation is why I think that a new hardware model in 2021 will be mandatory to get above 5m for the year. But the 6m+ to be up year over year are out of reach. |
Yeah NSW will be somewhere between 17.5mil to 18mil (6.1mil-6.6mil in 2020), that said I don’t really think saturation is going to play a role anytime soon.
the NSW probably has 300k-500k people going out every week to get a NSW for themselves now (estimate of lotteries). Lotteries are still happening and if demand still isn’t fulfilled by end of year, and/or stock makes it sell 6mil instead of doing 7mil+ like it could of done the. I still think it’s possible for being up YoY if it’s closer to 6 or hits 6.5mil.
of course close to 7mil or over then I’ll think otherwise, that said I don’t know. Looking at it by quarter figures or weekly avg we have this so far in 2020
Famitsu Sell thru 2020
Q1: 1703k (131k Weekly)
Q2: 967k (74k Weekly)
Q3: 945k (105k Weekly [9weeks so far]
Q4: ????k
In 2021, it’s too far away to get an idea but let’s say demand isn’t fully done by end of dec. and it carries for a bit longer. Q1 having SM3DAS in mid Feb, as well as rumored MH without a new hardware coming imo could push Q1 to 2mil (a weekly avg of 154k).
1st and 2nd weeks for 2021 also has an advantage with how it dates stack up. Putting it high end for sales imo. With the spill over effect we could see huge gains early for being up YoY
2020
W1: 284k
W2: 116k
W3: 95k
W4: 68k
then next few weeks were being supply restraint especially in Feb/March.
Early thought but I can see something like this for 2021
Q1: 2mil
Q2: 1.5mil
Q3: 1.5mil
Q4: 2.0mil
Tot: 7mil
Q1-Q3 being up as long as a good amount of software comes out followed by being down YoY for holiday but still strong. Q2 next year will play a huge role imo. Especially if MH comes out and supply issues resolve
