Actually we do know World Wide Numbers, last quarter it was 2.73M - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200507_3e.pdf
We know that they are selling out everything as soon as it reaches most storefronts.
It's been constantly in the Top 5 in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in the last quarter. The stock started to be stable towards early May in Asia, with a big spike of +561% in Japan for week 18(Golden Week) when they sold 81K copies.
In Europe and the US stock started to appear in June:
Considering Famitsu has Ring Fit Adventure at 328K for the prior quarter, I expect actual shipments to be around 450K(one additional week and MyNintendo Store). Anticipating that Japan and Asia probably make up around 40-50% of the sales for the quarter(since they got shipments earlier because they are closer to the factories). If the game sold 50K in the rest of Asia during the last quarter that's anywhere between 1M to 1.2M for the quarter worldwide, so there is even a possibility the game already surpassed 4.5 million worldwide.
As Piscatella from the NPD said. “New stock entering the market drove the increase.” This is the case for all markets.
Probably just a case of Nintendo prioritizing certain markets where the Ring Fit Adventure is pushing more of their new consumers towards the higher-priced Switch instead of the Lite. Ring Fit cannot be underlooked as one of the factors beyond COVID and Animal Crossing driving these record-breaking numbers. Haven't played the Wii games but I think Ring Fit is a very legitimate exercise that hasn't caught on in the way it could if you could actually find the game.
Its currently sold out on Amazon.co.jp; Amazon.com(used start at $110); Amazon.fr(start at 94 euro); Amazon.co.uk(start at 87 pounds); Amazon.es(starts at 94 euro), only Amazon.de from the major markets has it at retail price.
With a rumoured return to lockdowns in some countries, a potential second wave of COVID, gyms will be closing down again... and this leads me to the fact that Nintendo is pretty much the only game maker providing this type of experience. The rest of the year is looking insane if Nintendo produces enough copies, pushes more marketing and development resources into the game. It's like a perfect storm for this type of game and the comparison with the Wii games might become interesting in a couple of years if Nintendo doesn't release a sequel soon.
So it turns out Nintendo sold a bit less in Japan than expected. The results were 420K in Japan and the World Wide estimates were very close, they sold about >1.2M in the last quarter, but if they had enough stock it would have probably breezed passed 4.5M.
Currently, the game has been easier to buy off Amazon compared to the first couple of days of the month, it's currently in the Top 10 in Japan, in the US it climbed considerably in the last week from #88 to #32 position for the month of August. In the UK its a bit lower at #45, while in France & Germany its #13 and #14.
In Japan, it's expected that next week sales will go above >50K, but I do wonder if Nintendo is now finally able to sustain high supply for the game - I'm pretty certain that it could do 50K per week as long as Hardware is around 100K. Also it would be very good if they provide another update to the game for the holidays. Last year Ring Fit Adventure was hard to buy as a Christmas gift and it's the type of game that could easily shift >500K in December alone.