I don't think NSW will be down YoY in the US for Aug-Dec. I think ACNH caused NSW hardware in US to blow its load and stock was depleted by early May (as reported by Benji + anecdotes). We saw that once JP stock was depleted it took almost the full quarter for the production increases to pay dividends (crazy swings from Apr-Jun and then now we're seeing elevated baseline in JP since July).
Looks to me like NSW stock in US during Jun/July is in the same place as it was in JP back in May/June, which makes sense. Increased production should see fruits in JP first and overseas later (because it ran out there quicker and cause of geographical proximity).
Another note is the AC:NSW ratio as I described below. Using some assumptions (some reasonable, some a little wilder), I pegged AC at 500-800K sales (w/digital) in July US, which is a much higher attach rate than JP has been seeing w/digital in the Jun/July timeframe. This to me supports the idea that NSW hardware in the US is severely supply constrained right now - it seems unlikely that AC is more relatively popular in the US than it is in JP. Once the increased production hits the US market again, we'll see an uptick just like Japan - it just depends on when that actually happens.
mk7sx said: US supply constrained for NSW I would guess. ACNH is running at 50% digital globally confirmed by Nintendo. Nintendo's reported numbers + Famitsu's retail tracking suggests the upper-end for Digital % in Japan is 30%. W26 retail sell-through = 5,001K and Nintendo shipped + digital units through Jun 30 is 7,150K, so using delta of 2,419K = digital = 30%. In reality this number is lower since there is inventory/transit to account for as well as MyNintendo shop hardware bundles. That puts non-Japan digital share at about 60% to achieve the 50% ratio globally. US July NPD had Paper Mario in the 300-450K ballpark for retail. TLOUII and ACNH followed right after that, so upper-end for those is Paper Mario minus one unit and lower-end is zero. TLOUII is physical + digital and ACNH is physical only. No idea how to ball-park a lower range since we have little detail about units/hints for software below those two, but I think we know that TLOUII last month was #2 opening all-time for Sony so that puts it at 1.9M in June. So 75-80% drop in month 2 would peg it at 380-475K. If ACNH is right behind that in the 2-300K range, then with 60% digital it bumps up to 500-750K. So attach rate for ACNH vs NSW hardware is around 1.5-2.5x, which is way higher than what we see in JP for the same time frame. In JP, NSW sold 422K for July 4 weeks and ACNH 279K in the same frame. Add-in our 30% digital and its at 399K - close to 1:1 attach rate. US is somehow 50-150% ahead of that despite ACNH behing a bigger phenomena/driver in JP, which would suggest that HW supply is capping sales and lagging behind demand (which I suspect is currently enough to sustain ~150K weekly sales). |