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Forums - Sales Discussion - July NPD 2020: Switch 340K, PS4 150K, XB1 17k (rip)

Agente42 on 31 August 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Shadow1980 said:

Again:

Obviously, AC had a big impact in March. While there was probably somewhat of a pre-stimulus early-quarantine "better get it while the getting is good" rush (hence the uptick in PS4 & XBO sales in March after two months of big drops), the bulk of March's increases were clearly because of AC. April, however, showed a much, much smaller disparity in YoY changes. While AC likely had a residual effect in April (something at least a few major system-sellers have done in their second month), if the PS4 & XBO are any indication the bulk of the YoY increase in Switch sales in April was due to people getting their stimulus checks. While the YoY increases for the Switch tapered off more slowly than those of the PS4 & XBO, that could just as easily be chalked up to it being a younger, more popular, and thus better-stocked system. Once again, no game has ever had the kind of impact on hardware sales like what some are attributing to AC. Attributing something so unprecedented to a game while we are at the same time living in a time where we're dealing with something else unprecedented impacting the whole market is to me something that requires some damn good evidence. I've yet to see any good evidence that proves that the post-March boosts are primarily because of AC even though the PS4 & XBO had boosts that were clearly COVID-induced bumps. The Switch doesn't exist in a vacuum, and, especially given the nature of this year, has to be assessed in the broader context of the whole hardware market.

This chart actually shows that COVID was not the only factor in boosting Switch sales  YoY.  Why?  Because in July the COVID bump is over.  PS4 and XB1 are down YoY, but Switch is still up YoY.  You are only using US numbers, but the story is similar worldwide.  COVID is clearly over in most countries, but Switch is still up YoY.  That boost is not due to COVID alone.

And not the major factor either. Covid have the contribution, it's a fact. But one game sells 22M in 3 months are the big factor here. Sorry for the jagged response earlier, Shadow. 



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Agente42 on 31 August 2020
Wyrdness said:
Using historical data can only go so far because such data can't determine future context, shifts and disruptions a prime example of this is in finance as historical data wouldn't have been able to tell about decentralized finance and how the performance of crypto-currencies would go. Switch is a hybrid for a start so it's in two markets with a monopoly on one of them immediately that makes comparing data to it a wonky task because DS was only selling to one market as was Wii, Switch may share some of the same reasons people bought the former two for but has some key ones of its one that they don't have. Going by historical data the Wii itself shouldn't have sold but the data couldn't factor in disruption brought by the blue ocean strategy, Switch itself has a position which isn't like any prior device because it's primary trait is tailoring itself to what ever the buyers gaming habits are whether portable, home or a mixture so really the data it is generating is more for itself and future hybrid devices while historical data can only vaguely be used for it.

Pandemic may have helped in April and May but to attribute it as the main factor in sales is incorrect as even with many countries out of lock down after those two months NS remains up YOY and AC has for the good part of a year been touted as a major seller before release it sells to people who even don't play anything else in gaming hence why we saw celebs calling for it and see stories of elderly people putting in thousands of hours into the game I'd say yes AC has a big role in sales. If you look back at the NS' momentum and it's main software flagships they've all reached levels that other games struggle to even touch BOTW for example had over 100% attach rate for two months in the launch window more people owned the NS version than the platform because they couldn't manufacture it fast enough.

Agreed



Ryng on 31 August 2020
tbone51 said:
Do we have all numbers for this year for NSW? Or how much it is at? Last year sold 6.4mil

Switch sold between 3.5 to 4 million from January to July in 2020. It sold 2.06 million in 2019.



Endymion on 31 August 2020

Just to show how silly is the idea that a game can drive a console adoption rate only for a couple of months.
NSMB generated revenue for about $9.5M in its launch month in US which means that it sold around 270K.
The game would end up selling >11M.

What sell a console? Is it hardware or software?
That's a "chicken and egg" question.
It's the whole proposition that sell a console: hardware, software (from big sellers to more niche games), marketing, good word of mouth, network effect (people tend to want to own what their friends or neighbours have), core unique ideas that create value in the consumers eyes (like Switch's versatility and adaptability to anyone lifestyle or DS/Wii's inclusiveness for the less expert players).

Last edited by Endymion - on 31 August 2020

Agente42 on 31 August 2020
Endymion said:

Just to show how silly is the idea that a game can drive a console adoption rate only for a couple of months.
NSMB generated revenue for about $9.5M in its launch month in US which means that it sold around 270K.
The game would end up selling >11M.

What sell a console? Is it hardware or software?
That's a "chicken and egg" question.
It's the whole proposition that sell a console: hardware, software (from big sellers to more niche games), marketing, good word of mouth, network effect (people tend to want to own what their friends or neighbours have), core unique ideas that create value in the consumers eyes (like Switch's versatility and adaptability to anyone lifestyle or DS/Wii's inclusiveness for the less expert players).

are things that help sales and things drive sales.

Marketing, hardware revision, public image, macroeconomics, social context Help/ hurt sales.

Games drive/sabotage sales. 

Mega Drive goes toe a toe with Nintendo because have great sports games and Sonic, the marketing, and public image helps that, it's not a determinate factor here.

Switch have a good marketing focus in young adults and good public image, but have the best Zelda in fifteen years on launch time. Splatoon and Mario Kart also helped. 



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Agente42 on 31 August 2020
curl-6 said:
I get that they're both highly successful Nintendo systems, but the frequent comparing of Switch and Wii tends to ignores that they are very. very different systems, in everything from their demographic appeal to their circumstances.

There's no reason for them to follow the same curve just because they're both gaming systems made by the same company.

The context is different too.

Wii has a companion, DS. DS opens the gate of second-tier and third-tier of gamers. 



curl-6 on 31 August 2020
Agente42 said:
curl-6 said:
I get that they're both highly successful Nintendo systems, but the frequent comparing of Switch and Wii tends to ignores that they are very. very different systems, in everything from their demographic appeal to their circumstances.

There's no reason for them to follow the same curve just because they're both gaming systems made by the same company.

The context is different too.

Wii has a companion, DS. DS opens the gate of second-tier and third-tier of gamers. 

That's what I meant by "circumstances". 

Truth is, no system in history has ever been in the position that Switch is in; a single platform that encompasses both the console and handheld markets with the unified support of Nintendo's historically divided development teams and partners.

It has no precursor to provide a historical precedent.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 31 August 2020

Bofferbrauer2 on 01 September 2020
Shadow1980 said:
Endymion said:

Only January was down YoY.

According to the February NPD report "All in-market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago." Unless there was some new development and the NPD Group made an error, the Switch was down YoY in February as well in the U.S., not just in January.

***

And with that, I'm taking a break from this thread for the day. This took me over two hours (mainly due to looking over data and making some new charts), and I have other stuff to take care of today. I may revisit it later in the week to address any points I might need to.

If I remember correctly, Switch was only down by less than 5%, and since NPD calculates by financial value and Nintendo having released a version that's 33% cheaper, actual sales were up, though only by a small amount.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Ryng on 01 September 2020

Switch was down YOY in both January and February in dollar and units sales.



curl-6 on 01 September 2020
Shadow1980 said:
curl-6 said:

Historical data is useful, but it is not the be-all end-all you portray it as. The very nature of the Switch is a system without an exact precedent.

I never said COVID played no role, but it's far from the only factor, and you're underestimating AC and its impact. It's a cultural phenomenon the likes of which is rarely seen in gaming, prior examples being stuff like Pokemon Go and Wii Sports/Fit. The reason its boost to hardware is lasting longer than is usual for a system selling game is because it has opened the Switch up to whole new audiences who are now a permanent part of its ongoing sales.

The problem is you're limiting your analysis with the insistence that every current and future development must be a repetition of past patterns. 

If you apply the same logic to say, the 5th gen, you'd be insisting PS1 won't reach 100 million because no precedent existed for that.

I never said it was the end all, be all. I've even made the point that it wasn't in the past. No two systems have identical sales curves, or even similar curves (in the geometric sense of "same shape, different size"). For example, I have noted on more than one occasion that professional analysts were wrong to compare early PS3 sales to GameCube sales and imply the former might only sell as well as the latter. But we do see plenty of obvious patterns in historical sales data regarding how various factors impact hardware sales, and that is important.

Also, you have still yet to actually provide evidence that AC has been the primary driver of Switch sales in the U.S. over past four NPD sales periods. And you have still yet to provide any evidence of some new precedent set by either the Switch or AC. Until I see your evidence, I'm not going to spend any more time on this subject. Otherwise we're just going to be arguing in circles and repeating ourselves.

The evidence of AC's power is its colossal sales numbers, and it's clearly observable cultural impact. No previous Switch game has sold as fast, or broken into the mainstream zeitgeist to the same extent; you have a presidential candidate marketing their campaign through AC, IKEA doing an AC themed catalog, etc. It's a legitimate cultural phenomenon.

As for  what new precedent set by the Switch, the system itself is one without precedent; no previous system has ever encompassed the handheld and home console markets simultaneously with an effective monopoly in the former and the unified support of all Nintendo's studios and partners.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 September 2020