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curl-6 on 01 September 2020
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Shadow1980 said:
curl-6 said:

Historical data is useful, but it is not the be-all end-all you portray it as. The very nature of the Switch is a system without an exact precedent.

I never said COVID played no role, but it's far from the only factor, and you're underestimating AC and its impact. It's a cultural phenomenon the likes of which is rarely seen in gaming, prior examples being stuff like Pokemon Go and Wii Sports/Fit. The reason its boost to hardware is lasting longer than is usual for a system selling game is because it has opened the Switch up to whole new audiences who are now a permanent part of its ongoing sales.

The problem is you're limiting your analysis with the insistence that every current and future development must be a repetition of past patterns. 

If you apply the same logic to say, the 5th gen, you'd be insisting PS1 won't reach 100 million because no precedent existed for that.

I never said it was the end all, be all. I've even made the point that it wasn't in the past. No two systems have identical sales curves, or even similar curves (in the geometric sense of "same shape, different size"). For example, I have noted on more than one occasion that professional analysts were wrong to compare early PS3 sales to GameCube sales and imply the former might only sell as well as the latter. But we do see plenty of obvious patterns in historical sales data regarding how various factors impact hardware sales, and that is important.

Also, you have still yet to actually provide evidence that AC has been the primary driver of Switch sales in the U.S. over past four NPD sales periods. And you have still yet to provide any evidence of some new precedent set by either the Switch or AC. Until I see your evidence, I'm not going to spend any more time on this subject. Otherwise we're just going to be arguing in circles and repeating ourselves.

The evidence of AC's power is its colossal sales numbers, and it's clearly observable cultural impact. No previous Switch game has sold as fast, or broken into the mainstream zeitgeist to the same extent; you have a presidential candidate marketing their campaign through AC, IKEA doing an AC themed catalog, etc. It's a legitimate cultural phenomenon.

As for  what new precedent set by the Switch, the system itself is one without precedent; no previous system has ever encompassed the handheld and home console markets simultaneously with an effective monopoly in the former and the unified support of all Nintendo's studios and partners.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 September 2020