120M is about right, but 170M is extremely unlike.

Waaaay to early to tell how much PS5 is going to sell in its lifetime but I can comfortably predict it won't do 120m in 5 years, let alone 170m. PS4 had all the stars aligned to get to 112m in 6 and a half years, PS5 is not gonna achieve 120m in 5 years.

This report is of course not worth anything as there is no way to judge demand of a product 5 years in advance. Nintendo wanted the Gamecube to sell 50m units - did that have any effect on its actual sales? No. Same here. This report isn't worth anything and shouldn't be treated as some sort of in-depth knowledge or insight. Do I expect the PS5 to be successful? Absolutely. But certainly not because of this report.

That's a 24 million-per-year average for shipping for the first five years. I think that's way too inflated. Some seem to believe that the gaming industry and console market will simply follow a linear trajectory, both the 7th and 8th generations have proven that this is not the case.

I never quite understand this reasoning. As far as gaming consoles go, it has and will always come down to selling games. The best way to ensure you can sell the most amount of games is to sell as many consoles as possible. And there are a number of things that are hinting at the approach sony is trying to take with the PS5.

• Sony have themselves said that they are aiming to have the fastest transition to a new-gen with the PS5. The only way that is possible is if they are starting off at a reasonable price point ($399) and if they can aggressively slash prices.
• Rumors suggest that the PS5 has a BOM (disc version?) of ~$450. That would put the disc-less version at ~$420. That means they could just as easily be selling the disc-less version for $399 and taking a $60 loss and selling the disc version for $499 with a $10 loss. (estimates on loss based on the fact that there are more costs associated to the console than just the BOM eg.retailers cut, shipping cost...etc)
• Its in sony's best interest to push the disc-less version as hard as possible, because they stand to make significantly more money from having that SKU be the prevailing SKU on the market. People with that SKU can't buy used games and more money is made from them from every game purchase.
• It would be possible through revisions to get the disc-less SKU down in price faster. A disc drive is an inelastic expense, it would simply never cost sony less than ~$30 to have one in, but with the disc-less SKU, everything gets significantly cheaper over time. Due to a combination of demand/supply and fab shrinks. Eg, at some point, on smaller node, the same wafer than got sony like 200 NAND flash chips would get them like 600 chips.

Point is, its in sony's best interest to get as many PS5s out in people's hands as quickly as possible. And the only way they can do that is if hey can get its BOMdown as quickly as possible. The rulings I am seeing suggests this is the direction they are trying to go. Their ability to do this quickly means they start making a lot of money from selling games quickly too. With a larger base, every major (popular) game release can potentially become a 10M seller. And at least do 5M in its first year.

I can see sony getting the disc-less PS5 down in price to as low as $199 within the first 30 months, while at that time only dropping the disc sku from $499 down to $399. They would want people buying the disc-less sku and they would push it really hard. I even expect all game special edition consoles to be with the disc-less SKU and you just get a PSN redeem code for the game.

Some executives at Nintendo expected the Wii U to sell 100 million. Imagine how stupid Nintendo would've looked if they produced 20 million Wii U consoles in the first year. They would have to cut the price down to $200 or less at some point just to recoup some of the loss (while still taking a loss). Wii U would've sold 20 million in that case, but it would've lost Nintendo more money.

It's moronic for a piece of hardware to be produced and then ship 120 million units in just 5 years. That would require faster units sold worldwide than has ever occurred. Pretty sure it took the PS2 6-6.5 years to ship 120 million units.

So far PS4 is ahead launch aligned versus PS2, so since PS4 still haven't crossed 120M PS2 wouldn't have as well.

Yep 120M in 5 years is a very tall order.

It seems that there are more people willing to pay $500 this time compared to 2006-2013.
Heck, I seem people willing to pay aud$800 here in Australia for the PS5 (disc version)

If Sony manages to sell digital version for $399 or less and disc version for $499 or less. I can see them selling a lot of Ps5’s

120 million units shipped in 5 years? Mmm don’t think so, but it will be high numbers.

This rumor is obviously fake because:

1) no company is gonna plan 5 years of shipments before the product has even hit the market
2) PS4 never even came close to shipping that amount (24mil/year) for a single year, so obviously Sony isn't thinking PS5 is going to ship every single year SIGNIFICANTLY more than PS4's best year. Even more obvious when you consider the fact that PS4 had barely any competition for the first half of its lifecycle, while for this gen there are gonna be a lot more dollars going to other gaming setups, including a Nintendo that is far more popular than the PS4 ever was.

Yup. Switch is only mid-life. It has been extremely successful, but will likely get a successor mid-way through the life of the PS5. Provided Nintendo keeps the hybrid factor, I think Switch 2 will be another home run. Series X will likely do better than the Xbox One. I've said it before, but PS4 largely did so well due to Microsoft and Nintendo's screw-ups. 

PS5 should pass the PS1, but will likely not match the PS4 in sales.