Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 120 million units to be shipped within 5 years, according to supply chain source.

This report is of course not worth anything as there is no way to judge demand of a product 5 years in advance. Nintendo wanted the Gamecube to sell 50m units - did that have any effect on its actual sales? No. Same here. This report isn't worth anything and shouldn't be treated as some sort of in-depth knowledge or insight. Do I expect the PS5 to be successful? Absolutely. But certainly not because of this report.



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That's a 24 million-per-year average for shipping for the first five years. I think that's way too inflated. Some seem to believe that the gaming industry and console market will simply follow a linear trajectory, both the 7th and 8th generations have proven that this is not the case.



badskywalker said:
This is an interesting idea, if I'm not mistaken the PS4 hit the 100 million mark 67 months in. So not only will the PS5 be able to shave 7 months off that, but add an additional 20% on top of it.

The PS2 was able to make such a price drop due to Sony's, not Sony Interactive Entertainment's, position. Sony as a whole was doing quite well for itself in the early to mid 2000s, which allowed one of their divisions to take a risk by cutting the price of the system by such extremes in order to make a long term profit in the form of game sales. Sony today relies on its gaming branch, if I'm not mistaken aren't many parts of Sony shrinking in revenue? This would make a company more cautious about doing this sort of thing. Afterall many times the ones calling the shots aren't those who know the gaming industry, but those who see potential profits being lost due to uncertainty.

Then there's the financial situation in the US (This really is more important than the world as a whole as that's where the most competition will be for the PS5 and XSX), the Bureau of Economics Analysis saw a 39% drop in consumer spending year over year for the second quarter. It is believed that families are currently saving up (also in the report), and while the gaming market is booming for now, the real question is how long can it boom for? With an unemployment rate steadily going down, its still quite high at 11.1 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I'm not saying this will cause the XSX or PS5 to have an advantage over the other, what I'm saying is that in comparison to 2013 there will be a decrease at some point. This of course can be resolved by COVID-19 numbers going down enough to where it is safe to go back and the unemployment rate continues to go down. However I'm not too confident in this, now I do believe the numbers will get better, but will people go out and back to normal life, I don't think so.

I never quite understand this reasoning. As far as gaming consoles go, it has and will always come down to selling games. The best way to ensure you can sell the most amount of games is to sell as many consoles as possible. And there are a number of things that are hinting at the approach sony is trying to take with the PS5.

  • Sony have themselves said that they are aiming to have the fastest transition to a new-gen with the PS5. The only way that is possible is if they are starting off at a reasonable price point ($399) and if they can aggressively slash prices.
  • Rumors suggest that the PS5 has a BOM (disc version?) of ~$450. That would put the disc-less version at ~$420. That means they could just as easily be selling the disc-less version for $399 and taking a $60 loss and selling the disc version for $499 with a $10 loss. (estimates on loss based on the fact that there are more costs associated to the console than just the BOM eg.retailers cut, shipping cost...etc)
  • Its in sony's best interest to push the disc-less version as hard as possible, because they stand to make significantly more money from having that SKU be the prevailing SKU on the market. People with that SKU can't buy used games and more money is made from them from every game purchase.
  • It would be possible through revisions to get the disc-less SKU down in price faster. A disc drive is an inelastic expense, it would simply never cost sony less than ~$30 to have one in, but with the disc-less SKU, everything gets significantly cheaper over time. Due to a combination of demand/supply and fab shrinks. Eg, at some point, on smaller node, the same wafer than got sony like 200 NAND flash chips would get them like 600 chips.

Point is, its in sony's best interest to get as many PS5s out in people's hands as quickly as possible. And the only way they can do that is if hey can get its BOMdown as quickly as possible. The rulings I am seeing suggests this is the direction they are trying to go. Their ability to do this quickly means they start making a lot of money from selling games quickly too. With a larger base, every major (popular) game release can potentially become a 10M seller. And at least do 5M in its first year.

I can see sony getting the disc-less PS5 down in price to as low as $199 within the first 30 months, while at that time only dropping the disc sku from $499 down to $399. They would want people buying the disc-less sku and they would push it really hard. I even expect all game special edition consoles to be with the disc-less SKU and you just get a PSN redeem code for the game.



Louie said:

This report is of course not worth anything as there is no way to judge demand of a product 5 years in advance. Nintendo wanted the Gamecube to sell 50m units - did that have any effect on its actual sales? No. Same here. This report isn't worth anything and shouldn't be treated as some sort of in-depth knowledge or insight. Do I expect the PS5 to be successful? Absolutely. But certainly not because of this report.

Some executives at Nintendo expected the Wii U to sell 100 million. Imagine how stupid Nintendo would've looked if they produced 20 million Wii U consoles in the first year. They would have to cut the price down to $200 or less at some point just to recoup some of the loss (while still taking a loss). Wii U would've sold 20 million in that case, but it would've lost Nintendo more money.

It's moronic for a piece of hardware to be produced and then ship 120 million units in just 5 years. That would require faster units sold worldwide than has ever occurred. Pretty sure it took the PS2 6-6.5 years to ship 120 million units.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 110 million (was 73, then 96 million)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:
Louie said:

This report is of course not worth anything as there is no way to judge demand of a product 5 years in advance. Nintendo wanted the Gamecube to sell 50m units - did that have any effect on its actual sales? No. Same here. This report isn't worth anything and shouldn't be treated as some sort of in-depth knowledge or insight. Do I expect the PS5 to be successful? Absolutely. But certainly not because of this report.

Some executives at Nintendo expected the Wii U to sell 100 million. Imagine how stupid Nintendo would've looked if they produced 20 million Wii U consoles in the first year. They would have to cut the price down to $200 or less at some point just to recoup some of the loss (while still taking a loss). Wii U would've sold 20 million in that case, but it would've lost Nintendo more money.

It's moronic for a piece of hardware to be produced and then ship 120 million units in just 5 years. That would require faster units sold worldwide than has ever occurred. Pretty sure it took the PS2 6-6.5 years to ship 120 million units.

So far PS4 is ahead launch aligned versus PS2, so since PS4 still haven't crossed 120M PS2 wouldn't have as well.

Yep 120M in 5 years is a very tall order.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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It seems that there are more people willing to pay $500 this time compared to 2006-2013.
Heck, I seem people willing to pay aud$800 here in Australia for the PS5 (disc version)

If Sony manages to sell digital version for $399 or less and disc version for $499 or less. I can see them selling a lot of Ps5’s

120 million units shipped in 5 years? Mmm don’t think so, but it will be high numbers.



This rumor is obviously fake because:

1) no company is gonna plan 5 years of shipments before the product has even hit the market
2) PS4 never even came close to shipping that amount (24mil/year) for a single year, so obviously Sony isn't thinking PS5 is going to ship every single year SIGNIFICANTLY more than PS4's best year. Even more obvious when you consider the fact that PS4 had barely any competition for the first half of its lifecycle, while for this gen there are gonna be a lot more dollars going to other gaming setups, including a Nintendo that is far more popular than the PS4 ever was.



Slownenberg said:
This rumor is obviously fake because:

1) no company is gonna plan 5 years of shipments before the product has even hit the market
2) PS4 never even came close to shipping that amount (24mil/year) for a single year, so obviously Sony isn't thinking PS5 is going to ship every single year SIGNIFICANTLY more than PS4's best year. Even more obvious when you consider the fact that PS4 had barely any competition for the first half of its lifecycle, while for this gen there are gonna be a lot more dollars going to other gaming setups, including a Nintendo that is far more popular than the PS4 ever was.

Yup. Switch is only mid-life. It has been extremely successful, but will likely get a successor mid-way through the life of the PS5. Provided Nintendo keeps the hybrid factor, I think Switch 2 will be another home run. Series X will likely do better than the Xbox One. I've said it before, but PS4 largely did so well due to Microsoft and Nintendo's screw-ups. 

PS5 should pass the PS1, but will likely not match the PS4 in sales.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 110 million (was 73, then 96 million)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:
Slownenberg said:
This rumor is obviously fake because:

1) no company is gonna plan 5 years of shipments before the product has even hit the market
2) PS4 never even came close to shipping that amount (24mil/year) for a single year, so obviously Sony isn't thinking PS5 is going to ship every single year SIGNIFICANTLY more than PS4's best year. Even more obvious when you consider the fact that PS4 had barely any competition for the first half of its lifecycle, while for this gen there are gonna be a lot more dollars going to other gaming setups, including a Nintendo that is far more popular than the PS4 ever was.

Yup. Switch is only mid-life. It has been extremely successful, but will likely get a successor mid-way through the life of the PS5. Provided Nintendo keeps the hybrid factor, I think Switch 2 will be another home run. Series X will likely do better than the Xbox One. I've said it before, but PS4 largely did so well due to Microsoft and Nintendo's screw-ups. 

PS5 should pass the PS1, but will likely not match the PS4 in sales.

I actually predict the PS5 will sell around PS3 numbers 80-90 mil. For Xbox Series S/X I predict 40-50 mil. 



Wman1996 said:

Yup. Switch is only mid-life. It has been extremely successful, but will likely get a successor mid-way through the life of the PS5. Provided Nintendo keeps the hybrid factor, I think Switch 2 will be another home run. Series X will likely do better than the Xbox One. I've said it before, but PS4 largely did so well due to Microsoft and Nintendo's screw-ups. 

PS5 should pass the PS1, but will likely not match the PS4 in sales.

I don't know how or where you are getting this from. As it stands, unless the cheapest PS5 you can buy is $499, and there isn't a PS5 price at $299 by 2023. There is absolutely no indication today to suggest that the PS5 will not at the very least Bush PS4 numbers.

And this sentiment about PS4doing so well because of Nintendo and MS, is baseless; at least with regards to Nintendo. The Switch, as successful as it has been has not in any way impacted the sales of the PS4. So why should it or a switch 2 affect the PS5?

And as for MS, I would agree that because of how similar the two platforms usually are (PS and Xbox) one usually does well at the expense of the other. But that doesn't even really apply this time around and its something even MS has alluded to. I don't understand how anyone expects the Xbox Series to do so well considering how easy MS is making for you to not even have to own one.

Sogreblute said:

I actually predict the PS5 will sell around PS3 numbers 80-90 mil. For Xbox Series S/X I predict 40-50 mil. 

Ok... so you predict the XSX/S to sell about the same amount as the XB1... and predict that the PS5 will sell 20M - 30M consoles less than the PS4.

Basically, you are predicting that coming off the PS console with the most momentum a PS console has had since the PS1 - PS2 and the PS2 - PS3, the PS5 (barring any $599 surprises) will do only as well as the PS3? 

Thats interesting.