This is fw sales lol and japan only at that matter

So did Origami King, dude! Did you see them Color Splash numbers? 

I'll wait for the coming weeks but yeah Japan first week sales are not impressive compared to other Nintendo game Switch results. Which is to say it did as well (when considering you can also buy this digitally) as previous successful entires, rather than far better as you would expect on the Switch compared to N64, GC, and Wii. Says nothing about possible overall global success of the game, but yeah Japan FW sales not impressive just on par with past launches.

Calling it a fail is a bit dramatic. Especially if we don't know Origami King's digital share

This is a very arbitrary claim. I understand Nintendo IPs are doing better, but +50% is a overstatement. I can't recall Pokemon, Smash, Fire Emblem or Xenoblade doing +50% debut over their predecessors, possibly because many of them were coming from 3DS not from Wii U. As you pointed, it's much easier soaring in sales coming from Wii U than from 3DS/Wii

If anything, Switch games are more legging than past Nintendo games rather than having a much more explosive start 

Please keep in mind I'm talking about Japan where most Nintendo IPs are very famous and established. Global sales are a whole other story

Yeah Paper Mario's numbers are weak compared to the boosts most other first party games have seen on Switch.

Not every game needs to have a boost because it’s on NSW, that said the game should be on par at the end with the others in the series lifetime

• Fairy Tail (Koei Tecmo)
• Atelier Ryza 2 (Koei Tecmo)
• Kamen Rider: Memory of Heroez (Koei Tecmo) 
• Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix)
• Bravely Default 2 (Square Enix)
• Jump Force (Bandai Namco)
• Captain Tsubasa (Bandai Namco)
• Sakuna (Marvelous)
• Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous)
• Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami)
• Yo-kai Academy Y (Level 5)
• Megaton Musashi (Level 5)
• SMT III Nocturne HD Remaster (Altus)

Not sure if I'm missing anything but this is the potential Switch Japanese 3rd Party lineup announced for the rest of 2020.

Koei Tecmo has three games announced, Fairy Tail is releasing relatively soon but expected not to do too well, best selling Fairy Tail game was developed by Konami in 2010 for the PSP and it sold 106K. Atelier Ryza 2 has a good chance to be the best selling game in the franchise since the original Playstation days, in order to do that it would need to sell >145K in Japan. While I'm not too familiar with Kamen Rider but the best selling game in the franchise sold 176K back in 2013 on the PS3.  Best selling Koei Tecmo game on the Switch thus far is Attack on Titan 2 which sold 80K, currently, the Top 10 best selling Koei Tecmo games on the Switch have only sold 371K. So there is a decent chance that Koei actually increases its total sales of the system by a decent amount if Atelier & Kamen Rider do well, at this point they should be happy if Fairy Tail surpasses 50K. All the games are multiplatform

Square Enix only has two games and it's the biggest game for the Switch for 2020 is not yet dated. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles is releasing in a few weeks but its not exactly going to set the world on fire. So all eyes are on Bravely Default 2 and whether it would make the 2020 Switch lineup, the originally sold 382K on the 3DS. So far the Top 10 best selling Square Enix games on the Switch total over >1.44M, if Bravely manages to release in 2020 there is a decent chance it would become the second best selling Square game on the Switch behind DQXIS this year. Bravely Default 2 is exclusive

Bandai Namco is set to release two games but it also releasing Pokemon Snap which will be published by Pokemon Company. Not really expecting that much from Jump Force, the game sold 130K on the PS4 last year and anything above 100K would be a great result. Captain Tsubasa is the game I'm looking out for. It has had a long hiatus and it will be helped by the lack of football games on the Switch. Back in 1988 the original game remains the best selling game in the Franchise with 700K sales. Personally I'm hoping we see a Taiko/Fishing Spirits like performance and marketing behind this one. I think it has the potential to sell over >500K if the online/multiplayer is good enough. The Top 10 Bandai Namco games on the Switch have sold over >1.9M on the Switch. All games are multiplatform

Marvelous also is in a similar position to Square as their biggest game Rune Factory 5 is not yet dated. Rune Factory 4 on the 3DS sold 183K, their top-selling game in Japan of all time was Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness(2007) with 304K sales. If they manage to release Rune Factory 5 and it's well-received there is a good chance it will become their best selling game in Japan of all time. Elsewhere they are also pushing a smaller scope title Sakuna which I personally thought looked lovely, interested in how that title does on the Switch in Japan after getting featured in the Direct. Currently Marvelous has only released 7 games on the Switch which have sold over 299K with their top selling game Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town contributing around 50% of that total. Rune Factory 5 is exclusive

Konami is set to double the number of games it has on the Switch this year(lol). eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 was already released and I won't be surprised it finishes the year with over >300K sales if it shows the same legs we saw from last year's Konami game. The big announcement is Momotaro Dentetsu the game is easily going to be one of the top-selling 3rd party games of the year. Currently, Konami has sold 565K across its three titles on the Switch but with Momotaro launching I can see them surpassing 1.2M this year. Momotaro Dentetsu is exclusive

Level 5 has two games set to release on the Switch, after the huge decline they are hoping to at least see Yo-Kai Watch Y, stop the decline of the franchise. Elsewhere Megaton Musashi has been in development hell since it's an announcement in 2016, with no release date it's still not certain whether this game will actually launch this year and it's difficult to estimate whether this one might find an audience on the Switch. So far Level 5 has sold 513K across its 5 Switch titles they are probably hoping that they stabilize this year. All games are multiplatform but Yo-Kai isn't dated on the PS4

And finally, we get to Atlus, they've been entirely absent from the Switch prior to 2020. Now Persona 5 Scramble has launched and SMT III is dated for the fall. As I mentioned before because this is a remaster of a very old game in a genre that there is not much competition, I can see SMT III doing well for them. How well? People called me delusional for thinking it has the potential to sell >300K on the Switch, but I'd be conservative and say 250K in 2020. SMT III is multiplatform

MIA:

• Sega is set to release a single game that will sell over 50K on the Switch in 2020 - Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix, nothing dated for the fall
• Capcom's best-selling Switch game this year is Mega Man Zero with around 15K sales, nothing dated for the fall
• Nippon Columbia also don't have anything, they have a total of 188K sales across their four games on the Switch. It's pretty likely they release another Sumikko Gurashi game this year but nothing is announced. 

Honestly, this lineup of games from the big Japanese third party devs (sans Capcom, Nippon, and Sega) is not that bad for the Switch. Sure, it could be better, but I think, outside of Nintendo sucking $@&)% for the big games and having a more powerful console (which would increase the price and affect the durability if it was Switch-like), Nintendo has done all it can, I think, to provide a platform for Japanese third party devs to invest in.

2019 Q3/Q4 3rd Party Releases with more than 50K Sales

• Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25}
• Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous) {2019.07.25} 
• Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24}
• Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S (Square Enix) {2019.09.27}
• Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.10.10}
• Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) {2019.10.17}
• Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) {2019.11.01}
• SD Gundam G Generation: Cross Rays (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.11.28}
• Yo-kai Watch 4++ (Level 5) {2019.12.05}

There were only nine 3rd Party games last year that surpassed 50K released during Q3/Q4 2019. 

Best selling games from this list in 2019 were Dragon Quest XI S(463K), Fishing Spirits(336K) & Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games(195K)