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Forums - Sales - Will the Nintendo Switch overtake the PS4 in terms of sales worldwide?

hunter_alien on 14 July 2020
Louie said:
hunter_alien said:

The 3DS lost 1/3 of its price less than a year on the market. We are 3 and a half years into the Switch lifecycle and we still didn't get a price cut. Modern Nintendo systems, I mean everything that became generationalized, from the N64 to this day. The GC did get a price cut and it barely helped. It went from selling abysmally low numbers to just very bad numbers. It did in a generation what the Switch will do in a year. That price cut probably pushed less unit than what a modern system does in one or two quarters so yeah, it did not help. 

Nintendo always had a different strategy with system pricing compared with MS/Sony, and the Switch is the prime example for this strategy. The N64, GC, GB, GBA, DS, 3DS all had comparably small bumps in sales when price cuts came along. Redesigns and games are the ones that push systems. Check out the hardware charts right on this site for this. Don't believe me, I don't care, just watch how this generation will unfold. I will laugh my ass off when people will try to rationalize why the Switch never passed the PS4, and say to the ones that got it right that hindsight is 20/20. 

Again, what did you expect? For the Gamecube to suddenly sell 15m units per year because of a price drop? Do you think a price cut would have propelled the Vita to decent sales? Going from "abysmally low" to "very bad" is exactly what would happen with a less-successful Sony or Microsoft system.

Again, you just listed the 3DS as an example right after agreeing its sales were helped tremendously by a price cut. When the PS3's price was dropped from 400$ to 300$ that was a 25% price cut, which is not much smaller than the 3DS price cut was! If the PS4 will be helped tremendously by a price cut from 300$ to 200$... that's also a 1/3 reduction in price, again proving my point: Nintendo system react just the same to a price cut as any other system. And just for the record: I do not think Nintendo should drop prices, but try to increase the value of their product.

Yeah I guess you will laugh just like the people in 2017, 2018 and 2019 who predicted Switch sales have peaked and will only go down from now on.

Yeah, but I was not in that crowd, and I was right.



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TheBlackNaruto on 14 July 2020
scottslater said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Where did you get the best from for all those games? Or are those just your opinions? And when did Pokemon become the biggest "brand" in the world? Also when did people start seeking fitness in video games? Also the Switch isn't the cheapest version of entertainment available. Look I am all for the Switch continuing to sell well but lets not put personal bias as if they are facts when discussing it.

OT:

I think it will fall JUST short but will easily cross 100 million for sure. So I say around 110-115 million in sales. Now if they don't have some type of big Switch 2 plans then this could absolutely all change so time will tell. 

Side note I am excited to see what they do with their next console! Because after going with the Switch I can't see them going to back to 2 separate Home and Handheld devices.

Best in class based on sales and ratings.  Just to be clear by what I mean, I don't mean it is the best game period, but among the best that you can play (for example RDR2 and The Witcher 3 are Best in class Open World games as well).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises

https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/lifestyle/the-top-50-highest-grossing-video-game-franchises/

People started seeking alternative forms of fitness when the pandemic started... where have you been?  It's why Ring Fit Adventure is among the best selling games right now when stock is available and the secondary market for it is strong.

I didn't say the Switch was the cheapest form of entertainment, I said cheapest version as in it will be cheaper to buy a Switch and a couple games than it will be to even buy just a system of the new generation...

EDIT: To be clear, I meant biggest brand for the industry we are talking about (media), didn't think I needed to define it since it should have been clear what the topic was.

Okay I got you for how you came up with your best in class list so no debate there. The other "bests" that you quoted I will then assume were just your personal opinion and that is all good by me.

Okay so you are not talking about BRANDS at all so why did you say Brand then? Because when it comes to BRANDS Pokemon isn't even a top 10. And even if you had narrowed Brands down to just the big 3 in the video game industry it still would not have been the biggest brand. But now that I know you meant highest grossing form of media including everything okay well then yes. When it comes to gross it is the highest form of media for sure. And when it comes to all time video game franchise sales it is also the highest. Does it mean they are the current highest no not at all. But going back over all consoles and generations yes. Looking at current sales today along with other games no. But still a sales monster.

And the Switch isn't even the cheapest version of entertainment. The Xbox One is. Or were you not counting the PS4 and XB1 for some odd reason?

And people starting to seek alternate forms of fitness due to the pandemic and people seeking video games for fitness are two totally different things. Ring Fit Adventure has definitely seen an increase in sales due to the pandemic. But again that DOES NOT equate to people now SEEKING video games for fitness because ones games sales shot up.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

TheBlackNaruto on 14 July 2020
Eagle367 said:
Yes switch w overtake PS4 but in the end, I'm not sure whether PS4 will again reclaim the throne or not. And people are seriously underestimating the switch and some are still going in about some hypothetical cliff. Switch will for sure sell between 120-130mil and I do believe the switch successor is gonna be in spring 2024 at the earliest.

So you are saying Nintendo will literally go 8 years without a new console. The Switch is what in its 4th year or going into it right now right? Ad you are saying 2024 at the EARLIEST like you think the system will com even later?

Why do you think they will wait so long this time around? I am just curious.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Wyrdness on 14 July 2020
TheBlackNaruto said:

So you are saying Nintendo will literally go 8 years without a new console. The Switch is what in its 4th year or going into it right now right? Ad you are saying 2024 at the EARLIEST like you think the system will com even later?

Why do you think they will wait so long this time around? I am just curious.

Gameboy went 10 years until the GBC model came out last time they had a monopoly on one side of the market for one and that allows breathing room in when deciding when to bring out a successor, it's not something they haven't done before either as NES was on the market for 8 years until the SNES.



TheBlackNaruto on 14 July 2020
Wyrdness said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

So you are saying Nintendo will literally go 8 years without a new console. The Switch is what in its 4th year or going into it right now right? Ad you are saying 2024 at the EARLIEST like you think the system will com even later?

Why do you think they will wait so long this time around? I am just curious.

Gameboy went 10 years until the GBC model came out last time they had a monopoly on one side of the market for one and that allows breathing room in when deciding when to bring out a successor, it's not something they haven't done before either as NES was on the market for 8 years until the SNES.

Oh I remember it clearly. But that was well over 20 years ago and has not happened since then. And the industry then was TOTALLY different from now.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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scottslater on 14 July 2020
TheBlackNaruto said:
scottslater said:

Best in class based on sales and ratings.  Just to be clear by what I mean, I don't mean it is the best game period, but among the best that you can play (for example RDR2 and The Witcher 3 are Best in class Open World games as well).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_media_franchises

https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/lifestyle/the-top-50-highest-grossing-video-game-franchises/

People started seeking alternative forms of fitness when the pandemic started... where have you been?  It's why Ring Fit Adventure is among the best selling games right now when stock is available and the secondary market for it is strong.

I didn't say the Switch was the cheapest form of entertainment, I said cheapest version as in it will be cheaper to buy a Switch and a couple games than it will be to even buy just a system of the new generation...

EDIT: To be clear, I meant biggest brand for the industry we are talking about (media), didn't think I needed to define it since it should have been clear what the topic was.

Okay I got you for how you came up with your best in class list so no debate there. The other "bests" that you quoted I will then assume were just your personal opinion and that is all good by me.

Okay so you are not talking about BRANDS at all so why did you say Brand then? Because when it comes to BRANDS Pokemon isn't even a top 10. And even if you had narrowed Brands down to just the big 3 in the video game industry it still would not have been the biggest brand. But now that I know you meant highest grossing form of media including everything okay well then yes. When it comes to gross it is the highest form of media for sure. And when it comes to all time video game franchise sales it is also the highest. Does it mean they are the current highest no not at all. But going back over all consoles and generations yes. Looking at current sales today along with other games no. But still a sales monster.

And the Switch isn't even the cheapest version of entertainment. The Xbox One is. Or were you not counting the PS4 and XB1 for some odd reason?

And people starting to seek alternate forms of fitness due to the pandemic and people seeking video games for fitness are two totally different things. Ring Fit Adventure has definitely seen an increase in sales due to the pandemic. But again that DOES NOT equate to people now SEEKING video games for fitness because ones games sales shot up.

The Pokemon Brand is the biggest in media and those games will always sell consoles.

I wasn't including the XB1/PS4 because those are at the end of their life cycles and will most likely not be receiving to many more games after this year.  But even including those, the Switch is the best value in video gaming because of the hybrid nature.

There is a correlation between those things with Ring Fit Adventure... people are seeking alternate forms of fitness and video games offers one of those alternate forms, and when the only game on market that offers that is seeing increased sales it is clearly people seeking video games for fitness.

Last edited by scottslater - on 14 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

Wyrdness on 14 July 2020
TheBlackNaruto said:
Wyrdness said:

Gameboy went 10 years until the GBC model came out last time they had a monopoly on one side of the market for one and that allows breathing room in when deciding when to bring out a successor, it's not something they haven't done before either as NES was on the market for 8 years until the SNES.

Oh I remember it clearly. But that was well over 20 years ago and has not happened since then. And the industry then was TOTALLY different from now.

You either didn't read the reply or did not notice the major factor pointed out the is one thing that has returned from back then that allowed them to do that and that is Nintendo has a monopoly again on one side of the market, they can go 8 years with out a successor for the Switch because one of the markets is only catered to by them a different industry still yields to this one factor.



noshten on 14 July 2020

What if Nintendo view the Switch as an ecosystem and they never launch Switch 2.

We are in a World where generations are meaningless, what the future holds in terms of what Nintendo does is unknown. Investors have been pushing them towards mobile for years and they haven't really invested all that much there. So what they do sometimes is opposite of what the market expects them to do.

In terms of the technology to deliver high-end AAA games on a hybrid console while being profitable, we are a few years away. So for now I'd expect Slight upgrades to hardware but not enough to warrant them retiring the Switch. So it could very well be that in 2025 Nintendo still is selling it's games on the Switch even though OG Switches might not support the latest games. Tablets like these will eventually break, and you would need to buy a replacement. So they could indefinitely slowly upgrade the core-parts in the Switch without ever dropping the price or changing the name. Like I mentioned a while ago, Tablet Technology isn't at this stage but Complimentary Computing devices or the aptly named ProDock might be the thing they use to both support AAA games on the console or stream to the tablet.

We shall see but I don't think it would be that difficult to outsell the PS4, the DS will be the real hurdle for the Switch.



Mr_No on 14 July 2020

It seems pretty likely the Switch oversells the PS4. Even though a PS4 price cut these holidays could do wonders, the Switch has the momentum, not to mention potential future iterations that could boost up its numbers.



TheBlackNaruto on 14 July 2020
Wyrdness said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Oh I remember it clearly. But that was well over 20 years ago and has not happened since then. And the industry then was TOTALLY different from now.

You either didn't read the reply or did not notice the major factor pointed out the is one thing that has returned from back then that allowed them to do that and that is Nintendo has a monopoly again on one side of the market, they can go 8 years with out a successor for the Switch because one of the markets is only catered to by them a different industry still yields to this one factor.

I read that and forgot to even mention it lol. But yes they are the only ones in that market not thanks to their hybrid nature. But in today's industry.....I just can't see them waiting that long to announce a new console and the sales remain healthy. It just doesn't seem like something they would do with the way technology is moving.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23