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Forums - Politics Discussion - Who do you think will win the 2020 election, Trump or Biden?

 

Who do you think will win the 2020 election

Trump 34 45.95%
 
Biden 40 54.05%
 
Total:74
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:
nuckles87 said:
Biden.

As always, there’s a lot of uncertainty and a lot can happen. But it took a wild series of events, including an FBI chief going rogue to relaunch a negative Clinton story two weeks before the election, which polling showed hurt her right at the end.

Biden has a bigger lead than Clinton ever did, and Trump has a lot working against him: the economy is in a recession, and even the rosiest scenarios still have us with recession-level unemployment at the end of the year. He screwed up the coronavirus response, which isn’t going anywhere. He’s on the wrong side of nationwide protests. His approval ratings have been the most consistently lowest of any modern president, and his one bright spot, the Obama economy he inherited, is gone. He’s made no efforts to expand his appeal beyond his base, which currently makes up 40% of the electorate at most, and he can’t win with that. Polling has him behind in most swing states, and he’s doing especially bad in Florida. He’s lost his advantage with senior vote, and is underwater with every single group aside from white men, and his margin with that demographic isn’t enough to get him to 50%.

On top of all of that, even states were thought safe for him, likely never were. Despite his big margins in Iowa and Ohio, his actual vote percentage in these states was just 51%.

Altogether, 2016 was a weird election where Trump got very lucky, and 2020 is simply looking like a year that won’t go his way. Being an incumbent is a huge advantage during good times, but these AREN’T good times, and voters typically blame the party in the White House for that.

Unless something big happens that significantly changes the state of the race, Trump is almost certainly going to lose. Without that, he’ll need to hope coronavirus and existing GOP voter suppression tactics suppress enough Biden voters, combined with a polling error that breaks his way, will be enough to put him over the top.

Polling errors tend to only shift things a few points though, voter suppression can only do so much as record Democratic turnout in Georgia has shown, and when Wisconsin voters were forced to vote during a pandemic, they STILL showed up in high enough numbers to put the Democratic Supreme Court nominee there over the top. So overall, I have my doubts Trump can rely on any of this.

Yep Democrats should thank their lucky stars for this virus.  Otherwise the economy would likely be going strong going into an election and that would help trump.  But because of COVID we'll have massive unemployment which of course was unavoidable with so many venues being forced to close until vaccine 

The entire economy is propped up on debt.  The economy was always going to go into recession but the virus just made it worse.  A lot of these companies were going under before the shutdown.  The shutdown will accelerate it and unfortunately other companies that would have been okay have to close for good also.  Just wait till the fall and you will see even more companies going under.  To say the economy was roaring is complete bullshit.  The economy grew just as good under Obama than it did under Trump even before this mess and we didn't have to give tax breaks to the rich and corporations to achieve it then.



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Dulfite said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

Not mentioning loves sniffing kids, has a sexual scandal being ignored by media since he is a democrat and has family involved in the Ucrania scandal.

Really, I dont get it. Sometimes I think it was more a move to get Sanders out of the game or fears of delivering the party to a marxist.

Yeah he has been lying about things for decades dating back (at least) to when he flat out told a group of reporters about his college degree, what class ranking he was, etc. and then they fact-checked that all that information was wrong. There are a LOT of flaws against him, but I didn't really want to address that. I'm more concerned about his mental health and wellbeing and how he could handle the toughest job on Earth than I am about him being terrible. We can deal with "bad/evil" leaders, but it's pretty hard to deal with leaders that literally don't know where they are or what is going on. I'd rather have a Kim Jung Un or Nebuchadnezzar (pre mental illness) for a leader than a King George III or Nebuchadnezzar (during mental illness). Bad is more tolerable than "lost his mind."

I think it also depends on the person's personality. Even biden being senile I dont think he would do something crazy, probably just say a lot of stuff that people would not understand, forget the name of people, places etc, but nothing really major in my opinion. Also he is very entrenched in the roots of democrat party so he wouldnt be making decisions by himself. But doesnt change the fact that he would destroyed by trump on a debate. Trump has more of a chaotic behavior even without being senile hahaha. Americans should be worried about who will be the vice president. And if it is Hillary, well then we are 100% sure he will die during his first year.



I think Trump will. The Corona virus hurt the good economy we had going, but things are opening up now, so we'll slowly but surely recover. And the riots have hurt the Dems because people are seeing their weak response to cities being burned down and even taken over. Then you have Biden, a very poor candidate. He's obviously slipping mentally, something that will be displayed even more when he gets riled up in the debates with Trump. And I'm sure Super Pacs are going to be running ads with him sniffing and touching little girls. Not a good look



Dulfite said:
gergroy said:

Biden was in dozens of debates during the primary and he did just fine.  He isn’t a great debater, but he holds his own.  He really isn’t any worse at verbal slips then he was 40 years ago, he has always had slips when speaking publicly.  Which is not a weird thing.  Happens to lots of people.  Happens to me all the time as a teacher talking to my class.  This whole Biden being senile or having dementia is a trump creation.  It isn’t true.  

The debates are gonna be trump up there throwing out conspiracy theories and basically being a douche and Biden trying to be the adult in the room.  Trumps base will love the insults and believe every word... because they want to.  That’s the problem with partisanship, the more partisan you get the more close minded you get. 

I think there are enough people tired of trumps act they vote him out this year.   I guess we will see though.

I watched almost all the debates, at least in part. It was mostly a "whose got the bigger stick" fight between Warren and Sanders and the same kind of fight between the moderates while Biden remained pretty quiet. It wasn't until it was just him and Sanders where he got enough air time to say things, and even then that was a short period and wasn't in front of a live audience. If Biden goes one on one with Trump in front of a live crowd, it's going to be a massacre I think.

As far as slips goes, he makes WAAAY more than any other politician I've studied and I've been pretty obsessed with politics (any party, even minor ones and international like UK, Canadian, German, Australian in particular) for many years now. I taught for 4 years prior to this school year and I too made slips, but not like this guy. Saying this legitimate viewpoint is simply a fabrication for a political party you may not agree with doesn't help create an atmosphere for a rational discussion, by the way. I would not say "This whole Trump being a narcissist is a Biden creation. It isn't true," to you because I believe in respecting viewpoints. You can disagree with a viewpoint without describing it like it's a conspiracy theory and thereby alienating said viewpoint's holders from a quality discussion.

And I don't believe Biden will hold any kind of responsible attitude. He lit into his fellow democrats on live stage with anger and quite a bit of rudeness for far less accusations being thrown his way than he will get from Trump. If he got that angry with likeminded people in front of millions watching, how angry will he get with Trump who isn't likeminded at all and will say far more insulting things? Biden himself said he'd like to take Trump into a locker room to beat him up. The debates are going to be FILLED with insults from both of them.

And you may be right, Trump may get voted out. Historically speaking it is unlikely due to patterns and movements dating back to the early 1900's, but maybe that pattern will end (or at least have an outlier this year). 

For me, personally, I don't think I'll ever have "my kind of candidate" win again. I prefer a little government Republican like Mike Huckabee in 2007-2008 (or what George W. Bush was supposed to be) that leaves most decisions up to the states, but those kind of Republicans can't win national elections. The only ones that can I think win national elections now are these more populist Republicans like Trump. I personally hope Nikkie Haley is the republican nominee in 2024, that's a person I could vote for (at least for now).

You have a nice point here, mentioning that only populist republicans can win from now on. It seems to be the behavior in several parts of the world. The left went so to the far left of the spectrum that it opened the way to conservatives to also look for more and more radical candidates. The world is getting weird. Center left and center right voters are not being properly represented.



Biden for a very simple reason.

Fear of a Clinton presidency motivated people to vote for Trump in 2016.

The fear factor is now hurting Trump as it is motivating people to support Biden out of fear of another Trump reelection.

Fear trumps motivation.



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EnricoPallazzo said:
Dulfite said:

I watched almost all the debates, at least in part. It was mostly a "whose got the bigger stick" fight between Warren and Sanders and the same kind of fight between the moderates while Biden remained pretty quiet. It wasn't until it was just him and Sanders where he got enough air time to say things, and even then that was a short period and wasn't in front of a live audience. If Biden goes one on one with Trump in front of a live crowd, it's going to be a massacre I think.

As far as slips goes, he makes WAAAY more than any other politician I've studied and I've been pretty obsessed with politics (any party, even minor ones and international like UK, Canadian, German, Australian in particular) for many years now. I taught for 4 years prior to this school year and I too made slips, but not like this guy. Saying this legitimate viewpoint is simply a fabrication for a political party you may not agree with doesn't help create an atmosphere for a rational discussion, by the way. I would not say "This whole Trump being a narcissist is a Biden creation. It isn't true," to you because I believe in respecting viewpoints. You can disagree with a viewpoint without describing it like it's a conspiracy theory and thereby alienating said viewpoint's holders from a quality discussion.

And I don't believe Biden will hold any kind of responsible attitude. He lit into his fellow democrats on live stage with anger and quite a bit of rudeness for far less accusations being thrown his way than he will get from Trump. If he got that angry with likeminded people in front of millions watching, how angry will he get with Trump who isn't likeminded at all and will say far more insulting things? Biden himself said he'd like to take Trump into a locker room to beat him up. The debates are going to be FILLED with insults from both of them.

And you may be right, Trump may get voted out. Historically speaking it is unlikely due to patterns and movements dating back to the early 1900's, but maybe that pattern will end (or at least have an outlier this year). 

For me, personally, I don't think I'll ever have "my kind of candidate" win again. I prefer a little government Republican like Mike Huckabee in 2007-2008 (or what George W. Bush was supposed to be) that leaves most decisions up to the states, but those kind of Republicans can't win national elections. The only ones that can I think win national elections now are these more populist Republicans like Trump. I personally hope Nikkie Haley is the republican nominee in 2024, that's a person I could vote for (at least for now).

You have a nice point here, mentioning that only populist republicans can win from now on. It seems to be the behavior in several parts of the world. The left went so to the far left of the spectrum that it opened the way to conservatives to also look for more and more radical candidates. The world is getting weird. Center left and center right voters are not being properly represented.

I find this criticism of the left strange when every Democratic presidential candidate for decades has been fairly centrist (Very much including Biden), to the extent that the progressive wing of the party has gotten thoroughly tired of it. Center left candidates (or even just straight up Moderates) are the foundation of the US' Democratic party at a federal level. I would agree with you that certain branches of the Republican party are dying out (primarily fiscal conservatives), but the same just isn't true for the Democratic party, as much as some Democrats would like it to be...



Ka-pi96 said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

US seems to be extremely democratic for me, there is usually a balance between Republicans and Democrats in power, you even had a black president for 8 years. Definitely way ahead of so many countries in Latin America for example that call them democracies.

Unless the result is not the one you wish for.

Dood... you yourself literally just said "Take Texas for example, why would you waste your time going to vote if you know the democrats will not win".

You acknowledge that some people don't bother voting because they know their vote is literally worthless. There is no difference whatsoever between them not voting and them voting (for either party). Yet you also claim the US is "extremely democratic"? Clearly not...

The electoral college is definitely flawed and ultimately makes many states worthless in the election. Thing is those things aren't statitic and demographics change rapidly making certain states battlegrounds with time. Take Arizona for example which was solidly red for years, but is now a very purple battleground state that Trump and Biden will fight tooth and nail to win over. 



thismeintiel said:
I think Trump will. The Corona virus hurt the good economy we had going, but things are opening up now, so we'll slowly but surely recover. And the riots have hurt the Dems because people are seeing their weak response to cities being burned down and even taken over. Then you have Biden, a very poor candidate. He's obviously slipping mentally, something that will be displayed even more when he gets riled up in the debates with Trump. And I'm sure Super Pacs are going to be running ads with him sniffing and touching little girls. Not a good look

And one of the most damaging parts about the riots is the that they are taking place in liberally controlled cities (NY City, LA, Chicago, Minneapolis) being done by liberals, and are hurting/looting mostly minority owned places (which generally vote liberal) like gas stations and small businesses in those cities. Literally they are attacking one another while Republicans in the suburbs are going on about life as normal mostly.



EnricoPallazzo said:
Dulfite said:

I watched almost all the debates, at least in part. It was mostly a "whose got the bigger stick" fight between Warren and Sanders and the same kind of fight between the moderates while Biden remained pretty quiet. It wasn't until it was just him and Sanders where he got enough air time to say things, and even then that was a short period and wasn't in front of a live audience. If Biden goes one on one with Trump in front of a live crowd, it's going to be a massacre I think.

As far as slips goes, he makes WAAAY more than any other politician I've studied and I've been pretty obsessed with politics (any party, even minor ones and international like UK, Canadian, German, Australian in particular) for many years now. I taught for 4 years prior to this school year and I too made slips, but not like this guy. Saying this legitimate viewpoint is simply a fabrication for a political party you may not agree with doesn't help create an atmosphere for a rational discussion, by the way. I would not say "This whole Trump being a narcissist is a Biden creation. It isn't true," to you because I believe in respecting viewpoints. You can disagree with a viewpoint without describing it like it's a conspiracy theory and thereby alienating said viewpoint's holders from a quality discussion.

And I don't believe Biden will hold any kind of responsible attitude. He lit into his fellow democrats on live stage with anger and quite a bit of rudeness for far less accusations being thrown his way than he will get from Trump. If he got that angry with likeminded people in front of millions watching, how angry will he get with Trump who isn't likeminded at all and will say far more insulting things? Biden himself said he'd like to take Trump into a locker room to beat him up. The debates are going to be FILLED with insults from both of them.

And you may be right, Trump may get voted out. Historically speaking it is unlikely due to patterns and movements dating back to the early 1900's, but maybe that pattern will end (or at least have an outlier this year). 

For me, personally, I don't think I'll ever have "my kind of candidate" win again. I prefer a little government Republican like Mike Huckabee in 2007-2008 (or what George W. Bush was supposed to be) that leaves most decisions up to the states, but those kind of Republicans can't win national elections. The only ones that can I think win national elections now are these more populist Republicans like Trump. I personally hope Nikkie Haley is the republican nominee in 2024, that's a person I could vote for (at least for now).

You have a nice point here, mentioning that only populist republicans can win from now on. It seems to be the behavior in several parts of the world. The left went so to the far left of the spectrum that it opened the way to conservatives to also look for more and more radical candidates. The world is getting weird. Center left and center right voters are not being properly represented.

I miss democrats from the 90's and republicans from the early 2000's :(



EnricoPallazzo said:

Biden. 1. The left will keep the country on fire until the election, then will go dormant for a few years. 2. Also because of mail voting which will be a huge fraud. 3. The left need to keep the chaos to avoid the economy to come back.
4. There is a good chance trump will be the last republican president for a few decades. 

2 things im curious to see:

1: if there is going to be a debate. 5. Biden is senile and would be crushed by trump on a debate. 6. I think there is a good chance they will find a way to avoid a debate

2: who will be Biden vice oresident because there is a good chance this oerson is going to be the president.

Back up your points I numerated or stop lying. 



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."