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Forums - Politics Discussion - Who do you think will win the 2020 election, Trump or Biden?

 

Who do you think will win the 2020 election

Trump 34 45.95%
 
Biden 40 54.05%
 
Total:74
gergroy said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/

According to recent polling, Biden would win the electoral college with 368 to trumps 170 if the election were held today. Obviously the race will tighten as it gets closer, but I expect Biden will win back all the rust belt states this time that Hillary lost, which will give him the presidency.

All pollings said the same to Hillary. I don't trust them anymore. In my country the also missed a lot in the last two elections.



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A poll said black approval for trump hit record high after the bogus riots. Again I don't trust them, a lot of them miss shit.



I don't know tbh. I think it shouldn't even be a question. But it is.

Birimbau said:
gergroy said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/

According to recent polling, Biden would win the electoral college with 368 to trumps 170 if the election were held today. Obviously the race will tighten as it gets closer, but I expect Biden will win back all the rust belt states this time that Hillary lost, which will give him the presidency.

All pollings said the same to Hillary. I don't trust them anymore. In my country the also missed a lot in the last two elections.

The polls were pretty spot on though. Because she got the most votes. By c.a. 3 million.
And the margin of error for the polls was about +/- 3%.

The problem is, in USA they don't care about what most people want. Instead they have the electoral college.

Last edited by Hiku - on 18 June 2020

Snoopy said:

I'm NOT asking who you WANT to win, but WHO you THINK would win. Overall, I believe Trump will win for a few reasons.

1. Recent presidents seem to get 2 terms.

2. Before the corona virus, the economy was doing very well. Chances are as we reopen the economy will show huge progress.

3. The corona virus will decrease the amount of voters in liberal cities.

4. Joe biden isn't very entertaining and one thing I realize is Americans love entertainment more than politics.

2, 3, and 4 are debatable. The economy has been predicted to crash for the past couple of years. The Coronavirus will cause a drop in all voters but I predict more mail in ballots depending on state approval. And Joe Biden isn't entertaining but that's what I'd prefer after years of reading embarrassing tweets. 

Honestly, I don't want either of them. But these are what we are stuck with. 



nuckles87 said:
Biden.

As always, there’s a lot of uncertainty and a lot can happen. But it took a wild series of events, including an FBI chief going rogue to relaunch a negative Clinton story two weeks before the election, which polling showed hurt her right at the end.

Biden has a bigger lead than Clinton ever did, and Trump has a lot working against him: the economy is in a recession, and even the rosiest scenarios still have us with recession-level unemployment at the end of the year. He screwed up the coronavirus response, which isn’t going anywhere. He’s on the wrong side of nationwide protests. His approval ratings have been the most consistently lowest of any modern president, and his one bright spot, the Obama economy he inherited, is gone. He’s made no efforts to expand his appeal beyond his base, which currently makes up 40% of the electorate at most, and he can’t win with that. Polling has him behind in most swing states, and he’s doing especially bad in Florida. He’s lost his advantage with senior vote, and is underwater with every single group aside from white men, and his margin with that demographic isn’t enough to get him to 50%.

On top of all of that, even states were thought safe for him, likely never were. Despite his big margins in Iowa and Ohio, his actual vote percentage in these states was just 51%.

Altogether, 2016 was a weird election where Trump got very lucky, and 2020 is simply looking like a year that won’t go his way. Being an incumbent is a huge advantage during good times, but these AREN’T good times, and voters typically blame the party in the White House for that.

Unless something big happens that significantly changes the state of the race, Trump is almost certainly going to lose. Without that, he’ll need to hope coronavirus and existing GOP voter suppression tactics suppress enough Biden voters, combined with a polling error that breaks his way, will be enough to put him over the top.

Polling errors tend to only shift things a few points though, voter suppression can only do so much as record Democratic turnout in Georgia has shown, and when Wisconsin voters were forced to vote during a pandemic, they STILL showed up in high enough numbers to put the Democratic Supreme Court nominee there over the top. So overall, I have my doubts Trump can rely on any of this.

Yep Democrats should thank their lucky stars for this virus.  Otherwise the economy would likely be going strong going into an election and that would help trump.  But because of COVID we'll have massive unemployment which of course was unavoidable with so many venues being forced to close until vaccine 



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Spike0503 said:
Trump. Biden is a really weak candidate and there's still a lot of resentment from Bernie voters like what happened to Hillary in 2016.

I haven't seen that Never Biden sentiment as strongly over the last month or so. Seems to me that most of them have come to the realization that in fact Biden would not be the same as Trump. I think sometimes it is easy to get lost in the hyperbole of the primary, but as of this point, that contempt has largely boiled over. They may not all be happy about voting for Biden, but there is no indication that this Never Biden wing will be very large or impactful.



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Biden. The left will keep the country on fire until the election, then will go dormant for a few years. Also because of mail voting which will be a huge fraud. The left need to keep the chaos to avoid the economy to come back.
There is a good chance trump will be the last republican president for a few decades. 

2 things im curious to see:

1: if there is going to be a debate. Biden is senile and would be crushed by trump on a debate. I think there is a good chance they will find a way to avoid a debate

2: who will be Biden vice oresident because there is a good chance this oerson is going to be the president.

Last edited by EnricoPallazzo - on 19 June 2020

Before pandemic I thought Trump landslide, if held today I think Biden - possibly in landslide. They haven’t held conventions or debated yet.

Last edited by FormerlyTeamSilent13 - on 19 June 2020

Must be quite exciting for US citizens to have the privilege to decide which millionaires will be getting tax breaks. The power.



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