Back in the PS1 and PS2 days, Sony Computer Entertainment enjoyed the lions share of third party exclusives, with many of the biggest games those generations going exclusively to Sony. But with the PS3, that dominance was lost. A convoluted Cell Processor, plus the popularity of the Xbox 360 meant that franchises once exclusive to PlayStation, were now also popping up on Xbox. As such, the vast majority of exclusive games for the PS3, came from Sony itself.

The PS4 was an improvement however. It's easy to work with PC-based hardware, combined with its massive install base, meant that PS4 enjoyed more big exclusive or console exclusive titles from third parties than the PS3 did. Street Fighter V, Persona 5 Royal, No Man's Sky, Neir Automata, Crash N' Sane Trillogy, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Dragon Quest XI, And a variety of indie and PS VR games are all at least console exclusive to the PS4, or were timed exclusives to the system. 

With reports of the PS5 being even easier to develop for than the PS4, we could see even more notable third party exclusives for it. Now let me be clear, the days of the PlayStation 2 will never be repeated again. AAA franchises just cost too much to make now for that to happen, So I don't expect things like Grand Theft Auto or Mainline Final Fantasy games to be full on exclusive. However, I can see many AA, Indie, and VR games being at least console or timed exclusive to PS5, especially if the system sells as well as or better than the PS4. 

3rd party exclusivity is not a good thing.

Most of what you listed is just moneyhatting. How easy PS4 was the develop for or some massive install base doesn’t matter, all that matters is Sony wrote a check.

Whether you feel they're a good thing or not isn't the point. They'll never truly go away so long as money talks.

Hardly will happen, with the architeture being so similar to PC and Xbox very few will be exclusive.

Right.  Basically, only moneyhatting will lead to third party exclusives, with the possible exception of some Japanese niche games that just won't sell on XB.  

Street Fighter V - Not exclusive
No Man's Sky - Not exclusive
Neir Automata - Not exclusive
Crash N' Sane Trillogy - Not exclusive
Final Fantasy VII Remake, - Not exclusive
Dragon Quest XI - Not exclusive

Every console manufacturer has been getting less and less 3rd party exclusives every generation. 3rd party companies now see they will make much more money making games multiplat. The PS5 will have even less exclusives than the PS4. There is no reason for 3rd parties to limit their fan bases anymore.

If a dev can expect 10% increase in SW sales probably will launch on the Xbox since the porting cost would be very small.

SFV is console exclusive. No Man's Sky, Neir Automata, Crash, and DQ were timed exclusive. Final Fantasy VII Remake is a full on exclusive. Like I said, the days of the PS1 and PS2 are over, but that doesn't mean Sony won't enjoy exclusivity of some kind from third parties, especially if they outsell Xbox AGAIN. 

Wow, so you think it‘s a good thing that Sony is paying Square-Enix, Atlus and others for exclusivity?