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Forums - Sony Discussion - The Last of Us Part II - Review Thread (MC: 93 / OC: 93)

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DonFerrari on 14 June 2020
icykai said:
DonFerrari said:

With TLOU2 being a flagship exclusive it will have so much troll user reviews that it will be funny. But I'll do it.

That's exactly what's going to make it hard to predict.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242634/tlou-2-user-review-prediction



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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JRPGfan on 14 June 2020

I was wrong.

1) it scored higher than I thought it would (94)
2) no massive click bait troll review scores have really been given.



DonFerrari on 14 June 2020
JRPGfan said:
I was wrong.

1) it scored higher than I thought it would (94)
2) no massive click bait troll review scores have really been given.

Perhaps even being trolls they want to wait to give portions of the story as reason to low score so they need to wait for the 19th.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

vonny on 14 June 2020
BraLoD said:
JRPGfan said:
I was wrong.

1) it scored higher than I thought it would (94)
2) no massive click bait troll review scores have really been given.

There is still a lot of time and reviews to hit.

94 is still likely IMO.

96 definitely won't be the final score.

There's only at most 27 reviews left, it will need an average of around 85 from those 27 to drop down to 94. Not happening. 



vonny on 14 June 2020
BraLoD said:
vonny said:

There's only at most 27 reviews left, it will need an average of around 85 from those 27 to drop down to 94. Not happening. 

Metacritic uses weighted scores.

So if for example EDGE drops a single 6, you'll the TLoU2 drop from low 96 to middle 95, as simple as that.

94 is actually more likely then 96, IMO.

I'm aware but wouldn't the more weighted sites already uploaded their score?



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Zombie9ers on 14 June 2020
BraLoD said:
vonny said:

There's only at most 27 reviews left, it will need an average of around 85 from those 27 to drop down to 94. Not happening. 

Metacritic uses weighted scores.

So if for example EDGE drops a single 6, you'll the TLoU2 drop from low 96 to middle 95, as simple as that.

94 is actually more likely then 96, IMO.

BTW Edge gave it a 9



0D0 on 15 June 2020

I pre-ordered it last year. My only concern is if I'll get it sooner or not. Ive got to wait for delivery :(

I still trust in this game, based on the first one only. No clue about the leaks so far.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


src on 15 June 2020

Considering how many 10s this got from weighted publications as well, its also got the potential to go 97.

To put it into perspective:

> 95 = 55 scores
95 = 14 scores
<95 = 20 scores

Its got an insane 48 100/100 scores



src on 15 June 2020
BraLoD said:
src said:

Considering how many 10s this got from weighted publications as well, its also got the potential to go 97.

To put it into perspective:

> 95 = 55 scores
95 = 14 scores
<95 = 20 scores

Its got an insane 48 100/100 scores

It's currently 17th from the 22 games ranked as 96.

It would need around 20 perfect scores in a row to put it into 97.

Let's say Metacritic works with roundings and has no weighted scores, that way:

95.49 equals 95

95.50 equals 96

TLoU2 average right now is approximatedly 95.72 (8519 points divided by 89)

If TLoU2 gets 20 perfect scores in a row now, so 2000 points, it would go to 10519 points divided by 109 reviews, which averages 96.50, which would as just make it rise to 97.

There is no hope for TLoU2 to reach 97, as it got 14x 95, it's very likely a lot of the 10s would actually be 95s, which would make it even harder to make it rise.

As noted EDGE gave it a 9 which is still to be counted, and that being of the last heavily weighted scores to count, will make TLoU2 get even close to 95 instead of 97.

It's looking like 95 is where it'll land just like the original.

Which is great as I was genuinely not expecting it.

1) we do not know the weights

2) 58% of the reviews are 100/100 thus far. 66% are >96. There being 20+ scores >96 is likely depending on how many reviews are still unaccounted for which we do not know

I think it will settle at 96, and 95 being more likely than 97 simply due to the EDGE weighting which is >1.



Mnementh on 16 June 2020
BraLoD said:
src said:

1) we do not know the weights

2) 58% of the reviews are 100/100 thus far. 66% are >96. There being 20+ scores >96 is likely depending on how many reviews are still unaccounted for which we do not know

I think it will settle at 96, and 95 being more likely than 97 simply due to the EDGE weighting which is >1.

1. Yes we don't, still the first info I gave you was that it is the 17th from 22 games ranked into 96, which means it's on the lower end of the 96 sprectrum just like the weightless average points out. If you divide 17 for 22, and take it from 1 (1 - (17/22)) you see that if the 22 scores are evenly spread then TLoU2 has 0.22 into the 96 whole point range. Which lines perfectly with the weightless average (95.50 + 0.22 = 95.72, exactly the weightless average).

2. Even if it had 80% of 100/100, what matter is the average, and it has enough lower scores that are currently making it sit into the low 96 score range.

95 is probably the most likely score right now, but 97 is completely out of possibility as I proved into my last post, it would need only perfect scores from now on.

94 is actually way more likely than 97, actually.

Pretty good mathematical analysis. Generally speaking: if values fall in a limited range (in this case scores can go no lower than 0% and no higher than 100%) it is much easier with a few outliers to move an average towards the middleground (50% in this case) than to the extremes.

That said, there is more to it than mathematical analysis. The scores don't exist in a vacuum, but are given on the impressions the reviewers have. So it is quite expected that the missing scores will fall in the range of the existing scores. This means, while 94 is more likely than 97, it is still quite unlikely. At this point at most I see it switch to 95, but even that is not very probable.



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