BraLoD said:
1. Yes we don't, still the first info I gave you was that it is the 17th from 22 games ranked into 96, which means it's on the lower end of the 96 sprectrum just like the weightless average points out. If you divide 17 for 22, and take it from 1 (1 - (17/22)) you see that if the 22 scores are evenly spread then TLoU2 has 0.22 into the 96 whole point range. Which lines perfectly with the weightless average (95.50 + 0.22 = 95.72, exactly the weightless average). 2. Even if it had 80% of 100/100, what matter is the average, and it has enough lower scores that are currently making it sit into the low 96 score range. 95 is probably the most likely score right now, but 97 is completely out of possibility as I proved into my last post, it would need only perfect scores from now on. 94 is actually way more likely than 97, actually. |
Pretty good mathematical analysis. Generally speaking: if values fall in a limited range (in this case scores can go no lower than 0% and no higher than 100%) it is much easier with a few outliers to move an average towards the middleground (50% in this case) than to the extremes.
That said, there is more to it than mathematical analysis. The scores don't exist in a vacuum, but are given on the impressions the reviewers have. So it is quite expected that the missing scores will fall in the range of the existing scores. This means, while 94 is more likely than 97, it is still quite unlikely. At this point at most I see it switch to 95, but even that is not very probable.
