Reassessing my prediction from the beginning of January and making Q2 ones
noshten said:
They don't really need to beat 2nd half line up to do better
They only need a price drop and a Animal Crossing themed Switch/Switch Lite.
Animal Crossing demand will be constant hardware driver for a while after it releases.
CORRECT SO FAR IN TERMS OF ANIMAL CROSSING DRIVING DEMAND
We know nothing about 2nd half of 2020 in terms of 1st Party titles.
There are also rumors of new "Pro" Switch.
NO MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENTS FOR GAMES OR SWITCH PRO FOR THE 2ND HALF OF 2020
I know I've said that every year but it never lived up to expectations, but 2020 will hopefully change this and we will finally get a Japanese 3rd Party 1M seller on the system. I though Yo-kai 4 would do it this year, but I guess Level-5 aren't able maintain a successful IP. I think based on Ring Fit and that other Boxing game the 1M seller won't be a big budget game but rather - something that resonates with an audience. If I was a Japanese 3rd party right now, I'd be thinking about a complimentary game to Animal Crossing with small budget, something that would be attractive to a female audience. Since I'm neither Japanese or a women, I can't really think of something but that would be a smart idea. But Japanese 3rd parties are so far behind the curve that I think maybe a smaller indie dev might eat their lunch at this point.
NO MAJOR FEMALE FOCUSED GAME ANNOUNCED YET FOR 2020
Obviously if a new Monster Hunter does end up on the Switch I expect that to easily sell more than 1M but judging from Capcom's output on the system so far, I will believe it when I see it.
NO MONSTER HUNTER GAME ANNOUNCED FOR 2020
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ANIMAL CROSSING
Prior to releasing their Financials, I think Animal Crossing New Horizon shipped + digital for the Q1 will be 5M in Japan.
One of the reasons is some digital sales will be coming from outside of Japan, 2.5M Digital Sales in its launch month in Japan, and Asia doesn't seem unlikely.
It's a juggernaut, and considering the new demographics it's bringing in hardware sales will continue to get a boost all year long. If there are DLCs planned for every major holiday - the game will have one hell of an Obon and Christmas period. Nintendo could capitalize by cross-promoting it's other franchises via Animal Crossing.
OTHER TITLES IN TOP 10
Ring Fit Adventure is probably the other game Nintendo is planning to either release a sequel or keep fresh via further DLCs, won't be surprised if they also release new peripherals.
There is a curious case to be made that now would be a golden opportunity to also add some DLC to other games if bigger titles are delayed. I know part of Animal Crossing team worked on Splatoon 2, so a new multiplayer, single-player or Animal Crossing content would be a great way to get new users into the game especially among new females gamers picking up the Switch.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is still selling like crazy and adding a New Horizon DLC would be bonkers.
Smash Ultimate & Pokemon Sword / Shield are obviously continuing with the updates.
LACK OF BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS FOR OBON AND CHRISTMAS
Overall Nintendo has a lot of things up their sleeves and currently, Obon is barren.
Still very interested in Japanese 3rd Parties, so far this year we have 3 titles that that will cross >100K outside of Minecraft. I just wonder the next 3rd Party game we will see >500K. Like I said a few weeks ago, 3rd Parties should have prepared games that compliment Animal Crossing, yet outside of Miku, no major announcement is being made. Japanese 3rd Parties need to show up by the end of the year... otherwise once again they are leaving a ton of money on the table.
So even without a major game until Breath of the Wild 2, a lot of evergreens could actually have a stronger 2020 than 2019 lacking competition. Still expecting a mid-tier game to be the break out hit for a Japanese 3rd Party this year.
SWITCH PRO SPECULATION
Still thinking we will see a Switch Pro this year and expecting a $50 price drop for the Base and Lite units.
It will be a bundle that will include a Peripheral computing device focused on living room gaming in front of the TV. Nintendo games will still be released on the entire ecosystem but there would be exclusive 3rd party content on the new device. GTA V and other similar games will not be compatable with older Switches without a Peripheral device being present.
Switch Pro will receive a lot of ports from 3rd party games from the older gen.
This will be mainly used to extend the lifecycle of the Switch until Switch 2 is announced for 2022 or 2023.
PREDICTION FIRST HALF 2020
TOP 10 Q2 Prediction
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons: >5.5M
- Pokemon Sword / Shield: >675K
- Ring Fit Adventure: >450K
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: >400K
- Smash Ultimate >300K
- Minecraft: >275K
- Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX: >275K
- Super Mario Party - >250K
- Splatoon 2: >200K
- Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch: >200K
- Xenoblade Chronicles: >200K
TOP 10 TOTAL: >8.5M
