No sales reported this week? Delayed? Holiday situation? To lazy to check to reason :p

Oh yeah golden week :)

TOP 10 Shipped + Digital Japan 2019 Q4(Official Nintendo Numbers)

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 3.840.000
2. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon - 360.000
3. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 310.000
4. Ring Fit Adventure - 260.000 
5. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe- 250.000
6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 210.000
7. Super Mario Party - 160.000
8. Splatoon 2 - 110.000
9. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 100.000
10. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100.000

TOTAL: 5.700.000

TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417
2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
3. Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
4. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394
5. Minecraft - 185.900
6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
7. Smash Ultimate - 170.222
8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
9. Super Mario Party - 118.077
10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482

TOTAL: 4.555.642

• Animal Crossing did great but I guess I got overhyped about potential digital sales in Japan and ended up below my expectations(still a smash hit). 
• Digital for Animal Crossing is around 20-25% in Japan
• Ring Fit Adventure still hasn't realized it real potential due to stock problems
• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is seeing strong growth year over year in Japan
• Luigi's Mansion 3 will surpass 1M shipped + digital easily this year
• Smash Ultimate, Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Party & Splatoon 2 continue to sale and will see a boost in the upcoming quarters
• The only major game which we don't have digital data about is Minecraft, which is probably over 2M shipped + digital in Japan(its launch year it was available only digitally) 

One thing to keep in mind is how evergreens are performing(Minecraft Famitsu numbers included)

SSM 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 360.000 / 3.530.000

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 210.000 / 4.430.000

Splatoon 2 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4

Splatoon 2 - 110.000 / 3.440.000

Splatoon 2 - 110.000 / 3.890.000

MK8D 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 180.000 / 2.570.000

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 250.000 / 3.500.000

BOTW Q4 vs 2019 Q4
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100.000 / 1.580.000

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100.000 / 2.030.000

SMP 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4

Super Mario Party  - 170.000 / 1.220.000

Super Mario Party - 160.000 / 1.840.000

Minecraft Famitsu 2019 Q1 vs 2020 Q1

Minecraft - 182.522 / 660.392

Minecraft - 185.900 / 1.331.839

Evergreen 2021 Nintendo FY Prediction:

Smash >5.5M

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >5M

Splatoon 2 >4.75M

TLoZ:BoTW >3M

Super Mario Party >2.75M

Minecraft >2.5M

Damn, so currently there are five Switch games that will likely pass 5 million lifetime in Japan: AC, Smash, Splatoon, MK8D, and Pokemon. That is nuts!

What about Mario Odyssey? Is it still holding well?

SMO FY 2018 vs 2019

Super Mario Odyssey - 50.000 / 2.250.000

Super Mario Odyssey - 50.000 / 2.460.000

In terms of other notable evergreens, Super Mario Odyssey doesn't have the longevity of Breath of the Wild.

As a Single Player game that was bundled at it's launch, there is an ample second-hand market. They only shipped + sold an additional 210K units in the past year. Compared that to Zelda which is close to 500K, its still decent sales considering Super Mario Odyssey is already very close to 2.5M, but I expect Breath of the Wild to overtake it by the end of the FY for Nintendo. As I mentioned Animal Crossing bringing in new audiences & making this year the strongest in terms of hardware sales will help evergreen titles in the upcoming months. The other factors are:

• A revived interest in the game when Breath of the Wild 2 releases

Usually, this is noticed with games like this - it's not a substantial increase but could lead to a 10-20% increase after the sequel releases.

• Lowering the retail and digital price is another option for expanding Breath of the Wild sales, its also likely a way to increase Smash Ultimate sales. Since that's the other game that has a very high price compared to other evergreens

Smash Ultimate - ¥7.200

Breath of the Wild - ¥6.980

Super Mario Odyssey - ¥5.980

Splatoon 2 - ¥5.980

Super Mario Party - ¥5.980

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - ¥5.980

Smash Ultimate is 20% more expensive than other evergreens. While Breath of the Wild is 17% more expensive. From time to time we see Nintendo dropping the price of its big titles by 33% but temporarily making the retail price lower for the holidays this year could provide a lot of additional sales during Obon and Christmas. Bundling evergreens with JoyCons is another good option which has helped Super Mario Party immensely 

A new AAA 2d Mario could be the six Switch games. 

So do we get numbers this week or next??

RFA sells 82k beating launch sales in w18