One thing to keep in mind is how evergreens are performing(Minecraft Famitsu numbers included)
SSM 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 360.000 / 3.530.000
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 210.000 / 4.430.000
Splatoon 2 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4
Splatoon 2 - 110.000 / 3.440.000
Splatoon 2 - 110.000 / 3.890.000
MK8D 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 180.000 / 2.570.000
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 250.000 / 3.500.000
BOTW Q4 vs 2019 Q4
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100.000 / 1.580.000
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100.000 / 2.030.000
SMP 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4
Super Mario Party - 170.000 / 1.220.000
Super Mario Party - 160.000 / 1.840.000
Minecraft Famitsu 2019 Q1 vs 2020 Q1
Minecraft - 182.522 / 660.392
Minecraft - 185.900 / 1.331.839
Evergreen 2021 Nintendo FY Prediction:
Smash >5.5M
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >5M
Splatoon 2 >4.75M
TLoZ:BoTW >3M
Super Mario Party >2.75M
Minecraft >2.5M