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One thing to keep in mind is how evergreens are performing(Minecraft Famitsu numbers included)

SSM 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 360.000 / 3.530.000

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 210.000 / 4.430.000

Splatoon 2 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4

Splatoon 2 - 110.000 / 3.440.000

Splatoon 2 - 110.000 / 3.890.000

MK8D 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 180.000 / 2.570.000

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 250.000 / 3.500.000

BOTW Q4 vs 2019 Q4
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100.000 / 1.580.000

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 100.000 / 2.030.000

SMP 2018 Q4 vs 2019 Q4

Super Mario Party  - 170.000 / 1.220.000

Super Mario Party - 160.000 / 1.840.000

Minecraft Famitsu 2019 Q1 vs 2020 Q1

Minecraft - 182.522 / 660.392

Minecraft - 185.900 / 1.331.839

Evergreen 2021 Nintendo FY Prediction:

Smash >5.5M

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >5M

Splatoon 2 >4.75M

TLoZ:BoTW >3M

Super Mario Party >2.75M

Minecraft >2.5M