A Breath of the Wild battle royale would actually be pretty damn awesome

That's because they already have a Mario Kart for the Switch. Sure if it didn't sell much because people were like oh its just a port we're not gonna pay full price for that then yeah we would have seen Mario Kart 9 on Switch. In 2017 I thought there would be MK9 on Switch, by 2018 I realized no way another Mario Kart is coming to the Switch. MK8D became the best selling game on Switch by a long shot. MK9 wouldn't bring in any new gamers because that Mario Kart experience is already on the Switch, all a new one would do would be kill off the best selling evergreen game on the Switch.

Nobody outside of the Wii U owners of MK8 care that the Switch Mario Kart is a port. While a Wii Sports upgrade for the Switch would make perfect business sense, another Mario Kart on the Switch would be a terrible business decision. They'd put all this effort into a new Mario Kart rather than some other game, and sure it would sell tons, but it'd cut off the sales of the best selling game on Switch. They can literally do nothing with Mario Kart for the rest of this gen and sell another 10+ million Mario Karts, and devote those spared resources to another game, plus they can easily have MK9 ready for launch with Switch 2. It's a win-win-win. It just simply doesn't make sense to have two Mario Karts on one system that would kill off the best selling game for the Switch. It only makes sense to people who had MK8 for the Wii U, which is a tiny fraction of Switch owners and MK8D owners. Nintendo has never given any inclination that they're gonna put two Mario Karts on the Switch and kill off their best selling game. I really don't get why people keep repeating this idea that there will be two Mario Karts on the Switch. Yes MK on Switch is a port, but its a brand new Mario Kart to the vast majority of Switch owners, and it is selling like a brand new Mario Kart.

Let's say NSMBU:D was up at 15 million sales right now and was obviously heading to 20 and 25 million with great legs. People probably wouldn't be thinking "when is a new 2D Mario gonna come out on Switch" because we'd already have it, doesn't matter that its a port. But while its selling great for a port, its obviously seen as a port as its only at 6 million sales which is very low for a 2D Mario game. If MK8D did Splatoon 2 like numbers, was slowly creeping over 10 million right now, then yeah sure I'd fully expect MK9 on Switch. But that isn't the case, MK8D is Nintendo's best evergreen title by far, its gonna keep being one of the top selling Switch games every quarter from now until the end of the Switch's lifetime. The last thing Nintendo would want to do is kill that easy money stream.

As fans we're still waiting for BotW 2, another 3D Mario, a brand new 2D Mario series, Pikmin, Metroid, pokemon fans are waiting for something better than Sw/Sh, paper mario, bayonetta 3, other mario sports games, a wii sports like game, maybe another Mario+rabbids, some zelda HD ports, maybe even fzero and star fox, various portable franchises that have yet to hit the Switch, maybe a Wario game, another mario party, more ring fit games, probably a couple more Wii U ports, etc. There is no need for Nintendo to hurt its best cash cow (MK8D) to create a game that's not gonna bring in any new gamers because MK already exists on Switch, when they can focus their efforts on all these games. It'd not like Nintendo is having a hard time trying to figure out what games they could possibly make for the Switch at this point so they may as well just throw a second Mario Kart out there.

Though I guess no matter how many times this is pointed out people will keep talking about two Mario Karts on Switch. so whatever rant over haha.

If they decided to make a Let's Go Jotho this year, what's stopping them? They already have the engine, designs, models, storyline, online structure... They could pull off another minimum efford job and it would still sell 10+ million copies. The only reason they might not be able to do it this year is the quarantine.

It's the same reason why the talk of a brand new Grand Theft Auto is only recently begun to sound concrete with Rockstar. GTA5 and GTA Online is the most profitable entertainment IP in history and lives at the tops of sales chart from quarter to quarter despite being six and a half years old. People are STILL buying the game and DLC for it in droves!!! Why would Rockstar potentially kill that golden goose when it can be focusing on other projects in the meantime?

Overall, I think we're in for at least one upcoming 20+ million seller, either a 2D Super Mario or more likely Pokemon.

Here's the thing with Pokemon and the new DLC approach I'm not sure if we'd really get another game because I can see things going the expansion route where they for example remake D/P's region as an expansion for Sw/Sh.