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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What 20 million sellers does the Switch have left?

The Gen 9 Pokemon games and a brand new 2D Mario (if there's one) are good bets, maybe the Pokemon D/P remakes if they happen.



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Don't think gen 9 will be on Switch tbh. They can't just rush a new story anymore. Gen 4 remake will be 2021. I think they will need atleast another 2 years for a new gen. Even if gen 9 comes in 2023 and on switch, it will be on a dying system.



xMetroid said:
Don't think gen 9 will be on Switch tbh. They can't just rush a new story anymore. Gen 4 remake will be 2021. I think they will need atleast another 2 years for a new gen. Even if gen 9 comes in 2023 and on switch, it will be on a dying system.

Oh they absolutely can do that. From 2016 to 2019 we've seen a major pokemom game per year, they have no reason to stop that considering all of the SwSh backlash ended up with it becoming one of the best selling games of the franchise.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

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garretslarrity said:

Lock:

MK8D
Smash
Odyssey
Breath of The Wild
Sword & Shield
New Horizons
Pokemon Gen 9 (if on Switch)

Very Good Chance:

BotW2: I'm assuming every sequel sells less than its predecessor. If BotW2 is as good as the first, I think it should do it. If it manages to be even slightly better, it will definitely do it. Don't forget about the 1.5-2M people who bought it on Wii U and will likely get the sequel.

Less Likely, But Possible:

Diamond and Pearl Remakes: Let's look back at the DS and 3DS. On the DS, Diamond and Pearl came out first and sold the most. Black and White sold less, and Heart Gold & Soul Silver less than that. Same trend on 3DS. X&Y>Sun & Moon>Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire. So from that I expect Gen 9 to sell less than Sword & Shield, and D&P remakes less than that. Therefore I think it's unlikely that they will hit 20M, but I do consider it a possibility given how much Sword & Shield surprised me.
Super Mario Party: I wouldn't have guessed, but with it being at 9.12M already, it could. Seems like the kind of game to have decent legs.
Splatoon 2: I actually would have considered this a greater possibility not long ago, but it seems like sales have slowed down. But with it being half way there, I certainly wouldn't rule it out.
Odyssey 2: I originally had this in the Very Good Chance Category, until I looked up the sales of Galaxy 2; about half the original despite its critical acclaim. So never mind that.

Also, I don't understand why so many people seem to think MK9 will come to the Switch. There's really no reason to think so.

Yeah I don't think a pokemon remake, if one comes out, is gonna sell 20 million, probably more like 15 million. The only way I see another Pokemon hitting 20 million is the next core game if its critically acclaimed, cuz then I think most of the 20+ million S/S owners will go get that.

Mario Party is selling well, it'll go well past 10 million but no way will it hit 20 million. Especially since we should expect another Mario Party to come out at some point on the Switch.  Mario Party should have two 10+ million sellers on the Switch, but no 20 million seller.

Splatoon 2 sales are wayyyy too slow. It's creeping past 10 mil now. It'll probably finish at like 12 million.

I too don't understand why people keep bringing up MK9. There is zero reason to think there will be a second Mario Kart on the Switch. The idea that MK9 would be on the Switch pretty much died out two years ago when MK8D showed that it was gonna be an evergreen title and sell as well as any Mario Kart. It's just disgruntled Wii U owners who keep bringing up their MK9 fantasy. It would be a straight up stupid decision for Nintendo to put the resources into MK9 instead of another game only to kill off sales of the system's best selling game.



Darwinianevolution said:
xMetroid said:
Don't think gen 9 will be on Switch tbh. They can't just rush a new story anymore. Gen 4 remake will be 2021. I think they will need atleast another 2 years for a new gen. Even if gen 9 comes in 2023 and on switch, it will be on a dying system.

Oh they absolutely can do that. From 2016 to 2019 we've seen a major pokemom game per year, they have no reason to stop that considering all of the SwSh backlash ended up with it becoming one of the best selling games of the franchise.

Depends on how long till Switch 2.

I'd rather just have gen 9 and not another remake. Cuz gen 9 they could take the positives and negatives from Sw/Sh and really up the ante, while a remake would just be a cash grab essentially.

If they did a remake Link's Awakening remake style that could probably be done fairly quickly. I guess I could see a remake like that could out in a year and then gen 9 come out in two years, giving it a whole year to sell before March 2023 if that is when Switch 2 would come out.

If Switch 2 comes out March 2023 then they probably wouldn't want to put gen 9 on Switch. Well its possible they could pull a Twilight Princess / BotW and release gen 9 for Switch and Switch 2 at the Switch 2 launch, where the Switch 2 version has graphical enhancements. Imagine Switch 2 launching with gen 9 pokemon and MK9! That'd be an epic launch.



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I would bet on sequels to do it.

Last edited by PotentHerbs - on 20 April 2020

New 2D Mario would likely do it

Breath of the Wild 2 has a good shot provided it's not an utter disaster

New core Pokemon (at least one that is more fleshed out) could

Perhaps something in the vein of a new Wii Sports/Play type game (upcoming Clubhouse Games has overlap with Wii Play, though it won't reach 20 million for lack of brand recognition comparatively speaking. Though I DO believe it'll be quite successful)

Brand new Mario Kart would almost be guaranteed to push 20 million.



 

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DarthMetalliCube said:

New 2D Mario would likely do it

Breath of the Wild 2 has a good shot provided it's not an utter disaster

New core Pokemon (at least one that is more fleshed out) could

Perhaps something in the vein of a new Wii Sports/Play type game (upcoming Clubhouse Games has overlap with Wii Play, though it won't reach 20 million for lack of brand recognition comparatively speaking. Though I DO believe it'll be quite successful)

Brand new Mario Kart would almost be guaranteed to push 20 million.

Sure MK9 will...on the Switch 2. But we're talking about current gen.

Would love to see a Wii Sports type game with online functionality. Hell, just give us a remastered version of Wii Sports (maybe even bundled with Wii Sports Resort) with online play. Improve the motion control, add some depth to each sport, and let the player control the tennis character, sell it at discount price $40 I'd pick that up in a heartbeat. 10 million sold would be pretty much guaranteed and I bet it could make a run at 20 million. This wouldn't even take much development effort, it seems kind of absurd that Nintendo hasn't done this yet!



Not sure on future 20m maybe the BOTW sequel but a possible Tomodachi sequel could be a 10m seller.



xMetroid said:
Don't think gen 9 will be on Switch tbh. They can't just rush a new story anymore. Gen 4 remake will be 2021. I think they will need atleast another 2 years for a new gen. Even if gen 9 comes in 2023 and on switch, it will be on a dying system.

Pokemon games are much more easy to make than other Nintendo Triple A games because of their recycled engine, models and gameplay. And they just never stop their calendar, next gen games are already in development, if I'm not mistaken they started to talk about a open world pokemon (Sword and Shield and their wild area) in 2016, pretty much when 7th gen was just starting

They will always release new games no matter of how underwhelming and incomplete it is. Most of you guys seems unaware, but actually games aren't the main source of revenue of Game Freak anymore, it's merchandise. Pokemon needs new generations so they can constantly put out animes, movies, card games, mangas, and, of course, official merchan. Since games are the ones who actually starts the generation they need to always comes first. Delay a main pokemon game and you're delaying a huge media conglomerate of starting a new era

That's why this game is so big, famous and managed to retain an evergreen floor of sales for every main title in over 25 years. It's arguably the second biggest/most famous game franchise in the world even though their games can't outsell much less impactful names among general population (let's say The Witcher), essentially because it's consumed by non-gamers

Does it make any sense for you?