garretslarrity said:
Lock:
MK8D
Smash
Odyssey
Breath of The Wild
Sword & Shield
New Horizons
Pokemon Gen 9 (if on Switch)
Very Good Chance:
BotW2: I'm assuming every sequel sells less than its predecessor. If BotW2 is as good as the first, I think it should do it. If it manages to be even slightly better, it will definitely do it. Don't forget about the 1.5-2M people who bought it on Wii U and will likely get the sequel.
Less Likely, But Possible:
Diamond and Pearl Remakes: Let's look back at the DS and 3DS. On the DS, Diamond and Pearl came out first and sold the most. Black and White sold less, and Heart Gold & Soul Silver less than that. Same trend on 3DS. X&Y>Sun & Moon>Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire. So from that I expect Gen 9 to sell less than Sword & Shield, and D&P remakes less than that. Therefore I think it's unlikely that they will hit 20M, but I do consider it a possibility given how much Sword & Shield surprised me.
Super Mario Party: I wouldn't have guessed, but with it being at 9.12M already, it could. Seems like the kind of game to have decent legs.
Splatoon 2: I actually would have considered this a greater possibility not long ago, but it seems like sales have slowed down. But with it being half way there, I certainly wouldn't rule it out.
Odyssey 2: I originally had this in the Very Good Chance Category, until I looked up the sales of Galaxy 2; about half the original despite its critical acclaim. So never mind that.
Also, I don't understand why so many people seem to think MK9 will come to the Switch. There's really no reason to think so.
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Yeah I don't think a pokemon remake, if one comes out, is gonna sell 20 million, probably more like 15 million. The only way I see another Pokemon hitting 20 million is the next core game if its critically acclaimed, cuz then I think most of the 20+ million S/S owners will go get that.
Mario Party is selling well, it'll go well past 10 million but no way will it hit 20 million. Especially since we should expect another Mario Party to come out at some point on the Switch. Mario Party should have two 10+ million sellers on the Switch, but no 20 million seller.
Splatoon 2 sales are wayyyy too slow. It's creeping past 10 mil now. It'll probably finish at like 12 million.
I too don't understand why people keep bringing up MK9. There is zero reason to think there will be a second Mario Kart on the Switch. The idea that MK9 would be on the Switch pretty much died out two years ago when MK8D showed that it was gonna be an evergreen title and sell as well as any Mario Kart. It's just disgruntled Wii U owners who keep bringing up their MK9 fantasy. It would be a straight up stupid decision for Nintendo to put the resources into MK9 instead of another game only to kill off sales of the system's best selling game.
