Not much going on electionwise. Fox News clearly read my post about them and put in more Hunter Biden stories to make me look bad. So, they are harping on it a little more. Take that for what you will.
In polling news, not much going on. Trafalgar has Trump up by 1 in Michigan. I've spoken about them earlier, so take that for what you will.
In moderately good news for Trump, Yougov has Biden up by 5 in Wisconsin. Which is not a great result, but a bit better than he's been doing.
Harris X has Biden up by 5 in Pennsylvania. Again, this is better than he's been doing, but in this case it's not as good of a result. This is a bit odd, because they have him up by 11 in Michigan, and that's more of a gap than would be expected. They also have it even in Florida.
Last semi good news for Trump is Emmerson has him tied in North Carolina. So, that's... ok news.
The most interesting results are in a couple of very red states. New York Times has Trump up by 6 in Alaska... which is waaaaay closer than that state should be. Other less accurate polls have it even closer. Meanwhile, Times also has Biden up by 8 in South Carolina. Remmington Research, a less accurate pollster, has him up by 6 in Missouri.
These are states that should be blowouts. In states like this, which don't get polled often, it is VERY not surprising for results to fluctuate a lot. I believe a few polls in 2016 showed a competitive race in Alaska. But, there's a lot of polls that are all showing relatively close races in states where Trump should be killing it.
On the flip side, Biden is far outperforming Hillary in states like Virginia, Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire, and New Jersey.
Again, the results can be off in certain states or regions, as we saw in 2016. But in this case we have the polls all showing the same thing, in red states, blue states, and purple states. An error that's happening at roughly the same degree in all states is incredibly unlikely.
I'm actually starting to think Biden is a bit underrated. The swings are obviously going to be larger in more red states because there is simply more ground to lose, but considering how consistent and how big those drops are in states where the methodology probably was not overhauled, compared to states where the methodology was makes me think that polls in the midwest overcorrected based on 2016 and may be underrating Biden. Just my personal guess, but considering the shift nationwide and in the states in general, I think Biden may be underrated enough in Ohio and Texas to pick up wins there, and I'm going to be bold and even say Iowa.
With that in mind, here's my prediction. I'm finally getting comfortable in predicting a big Biden win... which will only make it hurt all the worse if that isn't what happens.
Last edited by JWeinCom - on 18 October 2020