I think you misread that. Think he was saying that they might begin to lockdown because of a legitimate need for one, and that may have an impact on turnout.

She's live now to 200,000+ people. I've never seen this many people watching someone stream.

https://www.twitch.tv/aoc

EDIT: Over 400k, making it the fifth highest concurrent viewership for a streamer on Twitch all time, I believe.

Lotta trolls in that comments section.

So, some polling updates and some weird ones.

Good News For Trump

An IBD TIPP poll shows Biden up by 2-3 depending on polling models. IBD is a reputable poll, but has been slightly worse for Biden than most. They've had him hovering around 6-7%. Probably just an outlier, but we'll see.

Change research shows a 2% lead for Biden in PA. That's a bit odd, especially considering that their other polls show larger leads in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Bad News For Trump

A Mason Dixon poll in Kentucky shows Trump up by 17. That might sound good, but he won the state by about 30 points in 2016. Best not to make too much out of one poll, but deep red states like that don't get polled often, so beggars can't be choosers. 

Speaking of states that rarely get polled, Biden is up by 22 according to a recent poll of New Jersey. This is compared to a 14 point Clinton victory in 2016.Again, best not to make too much out of a single poll in a state, but when we take a look at polls in safe states they're showing the same pattern of a consistent swing away from Trump.

Rasmussen has Biden up by 3 in PA and 1 in Ohio. Insider Advantage has Biden up by 1 in Iowa. These may sound like good results, but these pollsters all have overrated Trump compared to the average. And, even if we take these numbers at face value, they're not good. If Ohio and Iowa are close, Trump won't be winning.

The big thing is that Biden is consistently winning polls in North Carolina. It's been nearly a month since Trump won a poll in the state (some have been even). If Trump loses North Carolina he has a very very narrow path to victory. He'd need every state currently labeled as a toss up, plus Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona (or Michigan instead of the latter two). 

Times has Trump and Biden even in Georgia. That doesn't mean Biden will win obviously, but if it actually is a close race in a state where Trump won by 5 points, it probably won't be in states he won by 1. 

Lastly, data for progress has Biden up by 1 in Texas. Needless to say, if true, that would be bad. But Trump still is ahead in most polls in Texas, particularly by better pollsters.



The recent polls are pretty much what you'd expect, but have a few eyebrow raising results. Polls tend to be more accurate as we get closer to the election, so we'll see if there is any of the fabled tightening that was supposed to happen. This is around the time when Clinton's campaign fell apart. We'll see if the Hunter Biden story does the same as the Comey letter, but so far it hasn't been felt in the polls. Just two weeks now.

Ah yeah, sorry. I thought he meant states would go on lockdown on purpose to have a convenient excuse to keep people from voting, my bad.

I fully think those will vote regardless of a worsening Covid19, and sadly, probably even if they contract it and show symptoms.

But not sure about the republicans that doesn't shows up to is rally.
Those that are not all about trump and purely vote against democrats, for them 1 reason more not to go out and vote might be enough.
Those that house their elders.
Those that sill do believe in Covid19. For them you would believe that the gravity of Covid at election day will have a direct impact on their decision to go vote the same way it will affect democrats.

Of course all those persona probably describe republicans that do vote early but has with any categorization of a group of people you get a spectrum not a binary result. So you'll still have some that show those concerns that won't vote early.

The question this impact tens of peoples, hundreds a few thousands?
In leans Democrat's states this may act as a cushion, in tossup states it may very well tilt so of them, in Texas it may be the straw that broke the camel back.

You're right about NC, my bad. Yeah, that makes a little harder on election night but I believe late-early ballots are going to be cannibalized by early-early ones if you get what I'm saying, and thus most should arrive and be counted sooner than otherwise expected.

How quickly can we expect Nebraska-02 to count? Rumors are that Biden and Democrats as a whole are killing in the suburbs and that could be a good bellwether if the likes of Arizona and North Carolina aren't called by then.

But I don't think there's any viable path remaining for Trump if either NC or Florida are called early for Biden. Mathematically, yeah, but not in any real-life scenario. Florida or NC and Arizona together, and he's a dead man walking.

(Paraphrasing)

AOC:How do you do healthcare in the UK without a credit card?

HBomberguy: You go to the doctor, he gives you your prescription, you get your medicine, and then you go home and google how much all of that would have cost in the US.

ROFLMAO!

More polls and some doozies. I'm going to drop any pretense, because I'm pretty sure it's not a secret where I stand. Good news should be interpreted as good for Biden. Bad news as good for Trump.

Bad News

Three polls are showing a somewhat competitive race on the national. ABD/TIPP still has Biden up by an average of 2.5 based on different turnout models. HarrisX has Biden up by 4. Rasmussen by 3. The latter two polls though have always been well below the average. But still, that's a few polls showing a closeish race. 

That being said, most polls have Biden up by around 10% including SurveyUSA (10) and Times (9). On average he still has a 9.9 point lead... so the race is slightly tightening, but not by a huge margin.

Good News

The good news is basically everything on the state level.

Change Research and Civiqs show Biden up by 4 and 5 in Florida respectively. Biden currently has a 3.5% lead in Florida atm. Trump has less than a 1% chance of winning if Biden wins in Florida.

Pennsylvania has seen some polls shifting towards Trump, but the latest polls are better with Suffolk University showing a 6 point lead, and Quinnipac showing 8 points. Quinnipac also shows an even race in Texas. A loss in either state is fatal to the Trump campaign.

Biden's lead is also pretty steady in Arizona. Of the past 36 or so polls, Biden has been ahead in about 33 of them. 

Really Good News

The most notable news is in the state of Iowa. Monmouth and Times/Sienna (two polls rated A+ by fivethirtyeight) have Biden up by 3% and 5% respectively. 

If Biden wins Iowa, he has a greater than 99% chance of winning the election. Not because Iowa's six electoral votes are that important, but because if Biden wins Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are virtually a lock, and a win in Ohio would be fairly likely. 

So, over this week, we've seen a slight dip in the national polls for Biden, but a slight increase in state level polling. Both show more or less the same picture of a race that is Biden's to lose.

One thing we need to keep in mind is that...

Pulse Opinion Research
Rasmussen
co/efficient
Research Co
HarrisX
Susquehanna
RMG Research
Cygnal

... are all Republican polling outfits and Scott Rasmussen is behind four of these (Pulse Opinion, RMG, Rasmussen and HarrisX).

IBD/TIPP is a weird one: they've overestimated Trump by about 3 points in 2016, but even then, I suppose a Biden +3 outlier is just as likely as a Biden +17 point one like PRRI or Opinium in the context of him being up by 10 or so.