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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

TallSilhouette said:
California GOP openly commits election fraud across the state:

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/10/12/appalling-criminal-conduct-california-gop-accused-operating-fake-official-ballot
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/11/unofficial-ballot-drop-boxes-popping-up-throughout-the-state-worry-elections-officials/
https://secondnexus.com/california-gop-ballot-boxes-scam?fbclid=IwAR23-mW5lHfrOAmbS9KgNPAbtrNA9tfSMfIyXSj59I22dFN1hq2bZanvgy8

"Apparently they're trying to prove voter fraud is real by committing actual election fraud."

Not surprised, trump has basically been pushing his supporters for months to commit fraud to prove how unreliable it is.  Just another predictable and obvious byproduct of trumps rhetoric...



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haxxiy said:
Talking more seriously now, I'm starting to get the feeling the Midwest will stab Dems in the back again. Not all states, since Biden's advantage is that large, but enough to secure places like Iowa and Ohio for Trump and make the others red for good by the middle of the decade.

Don't really think so. 

I think the combination of Clinton being very unpopular and the appeal of Trump's "outsider" campaign led to anomalous results. Biden is far more popular, or at least less unpopular, than Clinton, and Trump's outsider appeal is something that doesn't work as well the second time around.

It's similar to 2008 where Obama had the appeal of being a new type of candidate, and was running on "hope and change". And he was able to flip Indiana, and come really close in Missouri. But, 4 years later, reelecting the first black President was not viewed in the same was as electing the first black President, and hope and change is a tougher sell for an incumbent. So in 2012, those states shifted about 10 points back to where they normally were.

If polls are accurate, that's what appears to be happening here. We'll see on election day, but if the polls are to be believed, Biden will likely win by similar or slightly larger margins than Obama did in 2012, with the exception of Iowa. If it's the same margins than that might indicate that they're shifting slightly to the right overall, but Trump is still a very unusual candidate, so we might not want to extrapolate too much based on that.



Just wanted to take a moment tonight to acknowledge this development:

In the moving average of national polls according to Real Clear Politics, Biden now leads by a 10.2% margin. (51.8% to 41.6%)
In the moving average of national polls according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden now leads by a 10.4% margin. (52.3% to 42%)

These are the best margins that Joe Biden has averaged over President Trump in his entire campaign.



Jaicee said:

Just wanted to take a moment tonight to acknowledge this development:

In the moving average of national polls according to Real Clear Politics, Biden now leads by a 10.2% margin. (51.8% to 41.6%)
In the moving average of national polls according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden now leads by a 10.4% margin. (52.3% to 42%)

These are the best margins that Joe Biden has averaged over President Trump in his entire campaign.

How are there people still supporting Trump in this? Biden is obviously a normal functioning human, Trump is a deranged imbecile who clearly suffers from borderline personality disorder. Are the American people THAT ignorant? Or is it some kind of Kim Jong Un style brainwashing?

I can't see how a mentally healthy person can possibly think Trump is a good idea. Look at how far the US has fallen under Trump's leadership; voting him again is just going to extend and exacerbate the rapid decline of the US.



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Jumpin said:
Jaicee said:

Just wanted to take a moment tonight to acknowledge this development:

In the moving average of national polls according to Real Clear Politics, Biden now leads by a 10.2% margin. (51.8% to 41.6%)
In the moving average of national polls according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden now leads by a 10.4% margin. (52.3% to 42%)

These are the best margins that Joe Biden has averaged over President Trump in his entire campaign.

How are there people still supporting Trump in this? Biden is obviously a normal functioning human, Trump is a deranged imbecile who clearly suffers from borderline personality disorder. Are the American people THAT ignorant? Or is it some kind of Kim Jong Un style brainwashing?

I can't see how a mentally healthy person can possibly think Trump is a good idea. Look at how far the US has fallen under Trump's leadership; voting him again is just going to extend and exacerbate the rapid decline of the US.

The same reason people buy diet products "guaranteed" to help them lose 30 lbs in 30 days. Or why men buy pills that will make their dick bigger. Or why people respond when Katya from Russia tells them that she likes their profile and really wants to get to know them better. 

Trump tells people what they want to hear. The scary pandemic that's sweeping the world is actually no bid deal, and we don't really have to change our lives. We don't have to worry about global warming either, just keep on doing what we're doing. If you're not getting what you want out of life, it's not actually your fault, it's their fault. Vote for him, and America will be great again. 

It's really simple. It is very easy to get people to believe things that they want to be true.



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The polling gap has widened some more since last Tuesday. Biden's running average in the national polls has improved a bit while Trump's has worsened a bit. Most states have followed along with this pattern.

I'd probably move Iowa from "tilt Trump" to "toss-up" as some recent polls had Biden with a slight lead. Florida is moving from "tilt Biden" to "lean Biden" as even though the polls tightened in September, they're now widening again and Biden's running average is back up to around the crucial 50% mark. North Carolina looks to be moving from "toss-up" to "tilt Biden" as his lead and running average has improved over the past week. Ohio (toss-up), Georgia (toss-up), Texas (tilt Trump) and Arizona (tilt Biden) haven't budged much. And the all-important MI-WI-PA triad is looking increasingly safe for Biden.

I'm still cautiously optimistic that we'll see a Biden victory, but turnout is still going to be key. If you're voting by mail, get that done ASAP if you haven't done so already. If you're voting in person, show up early as possible and stay safe.



Haven't done a polls update in a while, because at this point it's kind of boring. There is no way to read the tea leaves in any way that suggests anything but a decisive Biden victory. Assuming that there is no form of fraud in voting, it would take a polling error unlike anything seen in 70 years to get any other result.

But what the hell. Let's do it anyway.

Double digit leads for Biden have become the norm, not the exception. Biden now leads by 10.6 points nationwide. 

The only poll that has a close race is Zogby analytics. Zogby was one of the polls that had Trump with a good chance of winning, but they basically overrated him everywhere. Still if you're looking for a reason for optimism/pessimism as the case may be, there it is.

On state level the best news for Trump is Trafalgar showing a 2% Biden lead in Pennsylvania. I've discussed them before as their claim to fame is predicting Trump wins in Michigan and Penn. Two things to note though. First, they overrated Trump virtually everywhere. Second, if they are as accurate as they were in 2016 for Penn, that's a Biden win. 

In terms of other good news for Trump, there's not much. One poll I've not heard of (has a B/C rating from 538) has Biden up only by 2 in Nevada which would show it's still in play. Morning Consult has Trump leading in Ohio. Ohio is a must win for Trump, but realistically, he has to win it by more than 3%. If Ohio shifted by 5 points, Penn, Mich, and Wis, most likely shifted by at least 1. Trump also maintains 2-5% leads in Texas and Georgia.

For Biden, the good news is everything else. In Florida, polls are consistently showing a 3-5 point lead.  North Carolina is also showing a steady Biden wins. A win in either states makes Biden almost definitely the winner. Wins in both means Trump has to win in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and every swing state. Which isn't too likely.

Polls show Biden with about a 10% lead in Colorado. This would just about double Clinton's 2016 margin, which would be a good sign for other states that Clinton lost by a close margin.

The last poll of note is one in West Virginia. West VA doesn't get polled much since it's so heavily republican, so the results should be taken with a big grain of salt. But, the result is kind of shocking. It shows a 14% Trump lead. This is compared to a 40% win in 2016. Again, big grain of salt, but polls also show Trump losing ground in states like Missouri, Montana, and South Carolina. Basically, it seems like there is a universal shift away from Trump in all states, red blue or purple.

So that's where it stands. Again, either massive polling error, or Trump loses handily.



The 538 forecast trends more and more for Biden. Currently it has a 13% chance of a Trump-reelection and 87% for Biden (there is always a thin chance for a stalemate in the electoral college).

So from the standpoints of voters preference this election seems clear. But there are always factors that could influence elections beyond actual votes:

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/11/unofficial-ballot-drop-boxes-popping-up-throughout-the-state-worry-elections-officials/



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I predict that we'll see the glorious irony of people voting republican in fear of Venezuela (because that's what the democrats want to turn the USA into) while the GOP commits election fraud like Venezuela.



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gergroy said:
TallSilhouette said:
California GOP openly commits election fraud across the state:

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/10/12/appalling-criminal-conduct-california-gop-accused-operating-fake-official-ballot
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/11/unofficial-ballot-drop-boxes-popping-up-throughout-the-state-worry-elections-officials/
https://secondnexus.com/california-gop-ballot-boxes-scam?fbclid=IwAR23-mW5lHfrOAmbS9KgNPAbtrNA9tfSMfIyXSj59I22dFN1hq2bZanvgy8

"Apparently they're trying to prove voter fraud is real by committing actual election fraud."

Not surprised, trump has basically been pushing his supporters for months to commit fraud to prove how unreliable it is.  Just another predictable and obvious byproduct of trumps rhetoric...

Nah, that's not Trump, you're giving him way too much credit here. That's just the Modus Operandi of the GOP for decades now, trying to hinder people who they know probably won't vote for them to go vote as much as legally or illegally possible. 

And they have to do so too, as their membership numbers are faltering for years. 20 years ago the GOP still had close to 50M members, but in the last winter, it dropped to 32M and got surpassed by registered independent voters in the process. Meanwhile, the democrats still have over 45M members, and while their numbers are dropping, too, they don't do so nearly as fast as the GOP membership does. in the time the GOP lost over 15M, the Democrats lost maybe 4M members.