Johnson got 3.27% of the vote. 

The election forecast of 538 moves towards stronger probabilities of a Biden win. by now we have 19% chance for Trump and 81% for Biden:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden has a stronger chance to win Texas, than Trump to win the whole electoral college:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/texas/

Wrong, Trump has NEVER disavowed white supremacists, he even retweeted them at various points and said "there were good people" at the Nazi rallies in Charlottesville.

He has several times. Its never enough though it seems like.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4txFXtgqK18

Nah, I didn't realize this website would limit political discussions to one thread lol. Didn't even give me time to get on and justify the thread's existence once it was challenged. My idea was to have an entire conversation based on battleground polling data comparing 2016 to 2020. If I posted it here I'd get like two responses and then it would get buried in pages of people arguing about other things that have nothing to do with battleground states. Not worth it. I'll keep the data to myself and look at it again after the election to see if it proves what I think will happen in 2020.

When there is an official topic, we keep things there, and we're pretty consistent on closing any other topics on the subject, unless they approach it from a significantly different angle. I've been discussing polls for about a month or more in this topic, and have frequently compared 2016 to 2020 numbers, and I frequently put a lot of work into them. Would love for them to have their own topic, but c'est la vie. It's pretty clear that fits directly into the scope of this thread.

When there's a topic, like a presidential election, where we know a lot of people are going to have opinions, we try to contain it. What we did was perfectly consistent with the way we always do things, so you shouldn't have been surprised. Honestly, there was no real need to keep it open, and I left it like that kind of because I wanted to comment. Shadow was correct to lock, and if a mod made an error it was me, so if you want to complain about a mod's actions, complain about mine. You are free to discuss polling here if you like. If you don't want to, that's fine too.

Trump has an extended history of saying extreme things when on the spot then a few days later, in a controlled environment where he has a prepared statement that likely was not prepared by him (not a knock, all presidents use speech writers), he says something different. Then the next time he's on the spot, it's back to the same extreme shit. 

So, yes, he has condemned white supremacists. He has also, as seen on the debate, also dodged and danced around when asked to condemn white supremacists. He's also made incredibly false and racist claims like Muslims celebrating on 9/11 on the rooftops of New Jersey, or retweeting racist propaganda like this gem that even Bill O' Reilly called him out on.

Trump's company owned a building, including a chain which I actually lived in for a bit, which regularly discriminated against minorities in a case that he settled (for his side, he blamed it on the managers and claimed no wrong doing). He advocated for the death penalty for 5 black men who were accused of raping a jogger. When they were eventually exonerated by DNA evidence he refused to admit he was wrong for mounting a public campaign against them.

I can't say what's in his head, but there's ample reason for suspicion. 

For someone to have a chance of me voting for them, they would need to condemn white supremacists 100% of the time, clearly, and with no hesitation. I will not support any candidate who does anything less.

Well then hopefully you wont vote for Biden either. Since he also has a history of racist comments. 

Nice use of whataboutism I guess. 

But, let me repeat my standard, which you misrepresented as a strawman.

"For someone to have a chance of me voting for them, they would need to condemn white supremacists 100% of the time, clearly, and with no hesitation. I will not support any candidate who does anything less."

As far as I am aware, Biden passes this test. If there is any reason to believe that Biden either supports white supremacists or is courting the white supremacist vote (the distinction is irrelevant to me) I would not vote for him. So, provide some evidence, and you could take a vote from Biden. 

As for racist comments in and of themselves, that is not necessarily a deal breaker for me. I will admit right here right now that I am racist, at least at times. I have on many occasions had thoughts that diminished or vilified people, particularly towards black people. In my past, thankfully my distant past, there are probably some comments that I definitely would be horrified by now, although thankfully social media wasn't a thing when I was in high school. I was probably on the borderline of what we now call the "alt-right". 

I don't believe anyone is truly free of racial bias, definitely not myself. I think it is evolutionally natural to jump to conclusions about different groups of people. In the wild, we don't always have the luxury to assess friend or for. It is better to be biased when the consequence could be death. Unfortunately, those instincts that serve us well at surviving in the wild are awful for ensuring a world where people are treated fairly and justly. So, we have to be vigilant, be aware when we are giving in to more primal thinking, and strive to do better, which is what I try to do.

So, I'm not expecting anyone to be completely unbiased, or to have never made an insensitive remarks. I'm not into false equivalency. Saying blacks are not as diverse as hispanics is not the same as posting false data implying that blacks murder white people at an alarming rate (and I think it's a stretch to say it's racist in the first place), or falsely claiming that Muslims were celebrating on September 11th.

Feel free to show me examples of Biden being racist, and I'll evaluate them and reconsider my position. To my knowledge, I'm not aware of anything that Biden said that would give me pause about voting for him, but I'm open to evidence.

You are willfully ignoring Bidens past. If you want to vote for a guy who calls a former KKK member a mentor and a guide then by all means. 

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcBQYApjSa4

First of all, you are making an allegation that I resent. I don't know everything about Biden, and I asked you to present evidence. To say I am willfully ignoring something is an accusation of dishonesty, and frankly I would appreciate an apology. I did not know anything about it, so I looked into it. Here's what I found.

By the time of this eulogy, Byrd's involvement in the KKK was 60-70 years in the past. He had publicly denounced them. Byrd claims to have been involved in the KKK leadership from 1942-1943 and was a dues paying member for much of the 40s. In 1946 he wrote to the grand wizard saying the clan was more important than ever. He wrote a letter to his state senator saying he would not serve in the military with "mongrels" and that military integration would generally disgrace America. He began distancing himself from the clan when he began to run for Congress.

Joe Biden was born in 1943. Presumably Joe Biden met him at the earliest in 1973 when he was elected to the Senate, about 30 years after his membership in the clan, and after he had supported key civil rights acts.

“The greatest mistake I ever made was joining the Ku Klux Klan,” Byrd said in a 1993 interview with CNN’s Bernard Shaw, according to Slate. “And I’ve said that many times. But one cannot erase what he has done. He can only change his ways and his thoughts. That was an albatross around my neck that I will always wear. You will read it in my obituary that I was a member of the Ku Klux Klan.”

The NAACP has forgiven him for his role in the KKK. "Senator Byrd reflects the transformative power of this nation," then-NAACP President Benjamin Todd Jealous said in a press release after Byrd died. "Senator Byrd went from being an active member of the KKK to a being a stalwart supporter of the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act and many other pieces of seminal legislation that advanced the civil rights and liberties of our country.” President Obama also spoke at his funeral. 

That being said, the NAACP also objected to Roberts' use of the N-word in 2005. 

“I think we try to have good will. My old mom told me, ‘Robert, you can’t go to heaven if you hate anybody.’ We practice that. There are white niggers. I’ve seen a lot of white niggers in my time; I’m going to use that word.

“We just need to work together to make our country a better country, and I’d just as soon quit talking about it so much.”

As a Senator Byrd did fight against the civil rights act of 1964 but since then was an advocate supporter of many civil rights laws since including the Civil Rights act of 1967. He hired the first black congressional aide, and led the integration of the Capitol Hill Police Force. 

I just learned about this, so I'll withhold judgment for now. To be transparent my gut reaction is that I don't particularly case, but your gut reaction will typically reconfirm your beliefs.

As someone who has asked me to give them the benefit of the doubt in judging their views on race, I pose this question to you to help me think this over.

Do you think it's fair to say that Byrd was a racist at the time that Joe Biden knew him? Would Joe Biden have been justified in believing he was a racist? For his abominable decision to join and promote the KKK, should Byrd have been ostracized from society and considered a racist forever? Should he have been #cancelled? Should we consider anyone praising him or calling him a mentor in 2010 as endorsing his views from the 1940s? Is anyone who called him praised him at any point in the 70 years or so since he first joined the clan a KKK supporter by default? Obama spoke glowingly of him, as did many republican politicians

I'm withholding judgment for now. What's your take on those questions?