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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

EnricoPallazzo said:
Mnementh said:

There is a reason, that I am not so sure as some here, that Biden wins, and we have another news to further my suspicions: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/28/us-election-observers-europe-latin-america

Also, with increased number of mail-in-votes there is the strong possibility, that these votes will be attacked afterwards as invalid, if it helpsTrump. In my opinion there is the clear possibility, that no clear winner can be declared or the result is strongly challenged. That is something the model of 538 isn't calculating: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

And this is why it is so important to make clear the rules about mail voting and try to make sure those rules applies to ALL states, which is pretty difficult considering how independent the states are. But this ship has sailed I guess.

If I could choose I would say that all votes should be counted up to a few days after the election, not weeks. 

Corrected. Voting in general should be based on clear rules.

Disenfranchising somebody due to their name being similar to somebody else in another state is not something that should even be possible, but is modus operandi in many states with Latino or black minorities which are getting filtered out that way. Same with not letting vote people who once spent time in prison; you're supposed to have purged your debt to the community when you get out of prison.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

And this is why it is so important to make clear the rules about mail voting and try to make sure those rules applies to ALL states, which is pretty difficult considering how independent the states are. But this ship has sailed I guess.

If I could choose I would say that all votes should be counted up to a few days after the election, not weeks. 

Corrected. Voting in general should be based on clear rules.

Disenfranchising somebody due to their name being similar to somebody else in another state is not something that should even be possible, but is modus operandi in many states with Latino or black minorities which are getting filtered out that way. Same with not letting vote people who once spent time in prison; you're supposed to have purged your debt to the community when you get out of prison.

Really that happens? Dafuq? Also why would that impact more latinos and blacks? I believe there might be a lot of Juan Gonzales and Jerome Jackson around, but that would also apply for a lot of Brian Smith or whatever is a common white/black people name in US.

As for not being able to vote after getting out of prision, thats also fucked up. I can try to understand a cas ebeing made against being able to vote if you are in prision but even after that doesnt make sense. is that a law or for some reason a problem in the system where they forget to include his/her name back into voting list?



Jaicee said:

The "debate" went over so well, almost entirely thanks to President Trump, that the Commission on Presidential Debates has decided to change the rules of future debates going forward in order to ensure "a more orderly debate". Debate moderators henceforth will have the power to shut off the mics of the candidates when they break the rules, as by trying to invade the other's allotted time or by speaking over their rival. That's the single best political development I've heard of all year.

Haha, like when one brat acting up in class gets everyone put on time out. 



Machiavellian said:
EricHiggin said:

I really wondered how he would answer it as well when asked. I was pretty sure he wouldn't flat out condemn white supremacists directly again, because no politician likes to condemn anything directly, not even Biden, like him walking the line with Antifa and simply condemning violence in general. Which would never be seen as an acceptable response from Trump himself by some. On top of that, Trumps already condemned them in the past, and even then the media either ignored or spun it, and yet they still continue to come after him for it. Trump knows darn well most people who think he's a racist won't change their minds no matter what he says or does to their approval. He also knows he's already tackled this question and that his base will spread that information to those open enough, who had a problem with his debate response.

While he could have just given a similar past response, that would be giving the media the go ahead to simply dig up everything Trumps ever been questioned about that's seen as negative, and ask him again. Trump want's to make sure he makes it clear it's unlikely that will be tolerated. Not only that, but Trump is a businessman, and in his typical world, time is money. In his Presidential world, wasting his time is wasting the people's time. If you're seemingly wasting his time by asking the same questions over and over, especially if he's given a more than acceptable response in the past, he's going to get irritated. When Trump get's irritated, he punches back or flat out acts like a dick to let you know you're wasting his time. It's obviously not the most politically correct way to deal with the situation, but neither is asking the same negative gotcha questions after you've been warned plenty of times by Trump in the past, and yet both continue.

People are going to see and hear what they want to see and hear, and both Trump and Biden know this for the most part. Both should have a pretty good idea of where they may potentially be able to sway people, and that's where they need to be extra strategic in what they say. On the other hand, times like when Trump was pointing out Biden was 'losing the left', was mostly useless because those individuals aren't so much voting for Biden, they're voting against Trump. Sure, that may have slightly helped to solidify his base but I doubt it weakened Biden's base at all. Same with going after Trump for white supremacy. His base will just get strengthened by the irritation and victimhood of this coming up again after Trump already legitimately covered it prior.

Hopefully the next debate is reasonably professional. I get the feeling it will be.

That move will not work.  What I mean is that Trump isn't trying to convince his base or even get more votes from White Supremacy groups and so forth because he already have them.  The President is looking to get the votes of the undecided and people who are neither Dem or GOP.  In order to get them trying to play games with the media only benefits the media because not being able to answer that question in a concise way still makes him look bad.  Those games are stupid now and using the same stragety as he did in 2016 will cost him the election.  Neither candidate is trying to sway or should be doing anything to play to their base, they are not going anywhere.  They both want those undecided voters and Trump use of words on this issue came across as bad.  No body cares what you said in the past, they only care what you say now, when asked on national TV.  All news outlets are going with that story and only conservative media isn't but he already have those people and the polls have him far behind.  Really it was a very easy question for him to answer without worrying about any blowback.  Trump could have called all those groups the devil and they would not change their vote because they are never going to vote for Biden anyway.  He lost his chance on that point and he will be constantly hammered for it as well he should.

Unless those undecided aren't paying attention at all, in which case they may get a bad taste for Trump, they'll see it's something the media has brought up again though he's already clarified it. If you're someone who thinks the candidates need to constantly be asked the same thing over and over, then your just asking for poor results. The more questions you don't repeat when properly answered, the more questions you can get out, which is much more useful if you actually care about what the candidates are planning. If all you want are gotcha moments, then sure, ask, rinse, and repeat.

The way the question was asked was like how it was spun last time when he properly explained it. Anyone who takes any time at all will see it legitimately fits Trumps fake news narrative, and I'd bet Trumps people assume if you're not someone who's willing to be open and do a little research, you're the kind of person who will likely side with Biden anyway. People don't only care about what was said on national TV as you point out, that most of the media is running the supremacy story? Why? To further explain why it's a bad thing to those undecided voters. If those undecided voters only pay attention to that anyway, they were going to get spin from the media afterwards regardless. If they're not locked into the msm bubble, they'll see Trumps already gone against this and that the media is just after him for it again for no legitimate reason.

Trump has 3 debates, and he knows he doesn't need to cater to the undecided the entire time. He got away with the same thing with Hillary, though I do think he needs to perform better this time overall. It was also seen as though Hillary stomped Trump in the first debate, but by the last debate he clearly had made up for it. If he's doing what he did last time like I think he might, the next debate will be catered more to the undecided, and the final will be catered majority to the undecided. Trumps doing the checkbox thing and he got at least some of what he wanted in the first debate. He'll move on to the rest of the checklist for the rest of the debates unless he's not strategizing at all, which is quite unlikely. He's partially winging it as Trump does, which explains some of his poorer responses, but there looks to be an underlying strategy there. Whether there truly is or isn't, and whether it works or not by the end, we'll see.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Jaicee said:

The "debate" went over so well, almost entirely thanks to President Trump, that the Commission on Presidential Debates has decided to change the rules of future debates going forward in order to ensure "a more orderly debate". Debate moderators henceforth will have the power to shut off the mics of the candidates when they break the rules, as by trying to invade the other's allotted time or by speaking over their rival. That's the single best political development I've heard of all year.

That's great, and really needed considering how last debate went.

I just fear MAGAs will cry foul and that they are (literally) getting silenced. But depending on how it goes, it might not be the case.

This can still work in Trumps favor if he wants it to, though I don't think he plans to be near as aggressive next time, but we'll see.

First, he can still be a loudmouth all he wants to try and rattle Biden, and this time, the people watching aren't really going to be able to hear it much but Biden sure will. I think this would actually irritate Biden more, because he'd still have Trump in his ear while the viewers wouldn't really be able to tell as easily as they would if the mics were always hot. If Biden screws up because he can't think straight due to Trump chirping him off mic, it won't be as evident to the viewers why, and even worse if he loses it going off on Trump again.

Second, if Trump by chance plans to be super aggressive again, he can simply use this to pose an ultimatum to the moderator. If they unfairly cut him off, you just ignore the next question and keep blasting Biden. Make it indirectly clear to the moderator that if you cut me off too early, you'll never get a direct answer from your posed questions to me. Make the moderator choose. They'll likely side with letting Trump fully respond so they can get direct answers to the questions they pose to him. If they don't, Trump can always be on the offensive.

Third, he can spin his answers more and skirt the line with white lies and try to force Biden to want to respond more or let it go. If Biden wants to clear everything up in constant responses, that helps Trump 'legitimately' get more responses. If Biden ignores them and moves on, it favors Trump.

Lastly, if he's cut off a lot, he can cry fowl and that will play to some people considering the media is always after him and now have gone to the degree of silencing him, assuming he's not being so aggressive that he's clearly asking for it. That'll depend a lot on the moderator themselves, so it could certainly vary.

I'd rather this not be the case, and don't think it will, but killing the mic's isn't exactly problem solved like some might think.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 01 October 2020

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PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

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Out of curiosity, who isn't going to watch anymore debates due to the one on Tuesday?



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badskywalker said:
Out of curiosity, who isn't going to watch anymore debates due to the one on Tuesday?

I probably won’t, don’t need to see anymore of that disaster.  Just reaffirmed to me how terribly suited trump is to be president.  This is the guy we have talking to other world leaders right now...🤦🏻‍♂️



JWeinCom said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_0nUCzpNes

To add to this here's a look at the people who put their money where their mouth is. Those in the betting market clearly felt Biden was the "victor" of the debate, in the sense that he had a better chance of winning after than before.

I think this is mainly because the Trump campaign needed to change the race and Biden needed just to maintain the status quo. And nobody was really going to change their mind based on this. Also, whatever you want to say about Biden, he didn't look confused or diminished, and honestly, not being able to speak much might have helped him cause there were no major gaffes to my knowledge.

The post-debate financial development that's most compelling to me has been the fact that both the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee broke their respective previous single-hour fundraising records immediately after the debate. Notably, no analogous boasts have been made by the Trump campaign or the Republican National Committee.

EnricoPallazzo said:
 

Funny thing is that if you go to Trump internet places they think trump stomped Biden which is not truth at all, some people are just delusional. Shutting the mic is a great idea and a big blow to trump, but after this ridiculous debate he just deserved it, he went just too far. The only problem is that if you leave the decision of cutting the mic to the mediator we might have situations where the bias of the moderator might come in place and shift the weight to one side or another, most likely to Biden side especially after watching the mediator yesterday. They also should find a way to check for hidden wires in the candidates.

While there's no doubt left in my mind that the press generally outside of Murdoch-owned media does indeed have it in for Trump in a way that has been at least occasionally unfair (perhaps owing to things like his ongoing support for violence against journalists, for example), I would point out that Chris Wallace falls into the Murdoch-owned media category. The fact that he was chosen for this duty over someone Trump enthusiasts might like better, like say brainless shill Sean Hannity who runs the most popular Fox News program, probably has to do with the fact that, much unlike the higher-rated Mr. Hannity, Wallace is among the most trusted journalists in America. Schooled as an assistant of the legendary Walter Cronkite and having earned for himself experience working on all kinds of different news outlets over the course of his career, Chris Wallace has earned numerous awards for his work. I will defend this man as a matter of principle because he is among the most traditional, principled, and non-partisan of journalists in this country. I mean I see people on the left complain about him too because, you know, he works for Fox News so...can't be trusted, I guess. The guy gets criticized for doing his job. There aren't enough journalists like Chris Wallace left in this country who knows what professional journalism is, in my opinion, because professional journalism doesn't get ratings, and Wallace is very likely about to become the latest person to lose his job precisely because of it. I've seen the call for his head on a platter go out on the right already over this debate. Because Trump lost, someone has to pay and obviously conservative activists can't get Joe Biden fired and they would never dream of blaming their candidate himself for his own faults, so who does that leave but the debate moderator who works for Rupert Murdoch? It's too bad that this is the way things are anymore.

gergroy said:
badskywalker said:
Out of curiosity, who isn't going to watch anymore debates due to the one on Tuesday?

I probably won’t, don’t need to see anymore of that disaster.  Just reaffirmed to me how terribly suited trump is to be president.  This is the guy we have talking to other world leaders right now...🤦🏻‍♂️

I'll be watching, but obviously not to decide which candidate to vote for (there's nothing Trump can do to convince me to vote for him), but rather to keep tabs on how the race is going; to stay in the loop and relevant to the conversation, if you will.

I'm also legitimately interested in the upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence. I like Harris somewhat better than I like Biden and believe that she will likely be the Democratic Party's nominee four years from now should Biden win this election because...realistically he'll opt to serve only one term, considering his age. I'm interested in seeing how she fares in particular.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 01 October 2020

Jaicee said:
JWeinCom said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_0nUCzpNes

To add to this here's a look at the people who put their money where their mouth is. Those in the betting market clearly felt Biden was the "victor" of the debate, in the sense that he had a better chance of winning after than before.

I think this is mainly because the Trump campaign needed to change the race and Biden needed just to maintain the status quo. And nobody was really going to change their mind based on this. Also, whatever you want to say about Biden, he didn't look confused or diminished, and honestly, not being able to speak much might have helped him cause there were no major gaffes to my knowledge.

The post-debate financial development that's most compelling to me has been the fact that both the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee broke their respective previous single-hour fundraising records immediately after the debate. Notably, no analogous boasts have been made by the Trump campaign or the Republican National Committee.

EnricoPallazzo said:

Funny thing is that if you go to Trump internet places they think trump stomped Biden which is not truth at all, some people are just delusional. Shutting the mic is a great idea and a big blow to trump, but after this ridiculous debate he just deserved it, he went just too far. The only problem is that if you leave the decision of cutting the mic to the mediator we might have situations where the bias of the moderator might come in place and shift the weight to one side or another, most likely to Biden side especially after watching the mediator yesterday. They also should find a way to check for hidden wires in the candidates.

While there's no doubt left in my mind that the press generally outside of Murdoch-owned media does indeed have it in for Trump in a way that has been at least occasionally unfair (perhaps owing to things like his ongoing support for violence against journalists, for example), I would point out that Chris Wallace falls into the Murdoch-owned media category. The fact that he was chosen for this duty over someone Trump enthusiasts might like better, like say brainless shill Sean Hannity who runs the most popular Fox News program, probably has to do with the fact that, much unlike the higher-rated Mr. Hannity, Wallace is among the most trusted journalists in America. Schooled as an assistant of the legendary Walter Cronkite and having earned for himself experience working on all kinds of different news outlets over the course of his career, Chris Wallace has earned numerous awards for his work. I will defend this man as a matter of principle because he is among the most traditional, principled, and non-partisan of journalists in this country. I mean I see people on the left complain about him too because, you know, he works for Fox News so...can't be trusted, I guess. The guy gets criticized for doing his job. There aren't enough journalists like Chris Wallace left in this country who knows what professional journalism is, in my opinion, because professional journalism doesn't get ratings, and Wallace is very likely about to become the latest person to lose his job precisely because of it. I've seen the call for his head on a platter go out on the right already over this debate. Because Trump lost, someone has to pay and obviously conservative activists can't get Joe Biden fired and they would never dream of blaming their candidate himself for his own faults, so who does that leave but the debate moderator who works for Rupert Murdoch? It's too bad that this is the way things are anymore.

gergroy said:

I probably won’t, don’t need to see anymore of that disaster.  Just reaffirmed to me how terribly suited trump is to be president.  This is the guy we have talking to other world leaders right now...🤦🏻‍♂️

I'll be watching, but obviously not to decide which candidate to vote for (there's nothing Trump can do to convince me to vote for him), but rather to keep tabs on how the race is going; to stay in the loop and relevant to the conversation, if you will.

I'm also legitimately interested in the upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence. I like Harris somewhat better than I like Biden and believe that she will likely be the Democratic Party's nominee four years from now should Biden win this election because...realistically he'll opt to serve only one term, considering his age. I'm interested in seeing how she fares in particular.

The records Biden is breaking are also beating records set about a week ago after RBG's death. And that's after a record breaking haul in August. In terms of cash flow, Biden is crushing Trump. Nothing motivates like fear. 



Well... It's October 1st (second now) and right on cue we've gotten our first of potentially many October surprises.

Trump's top aide, Hope Hicks, who had been in very close contact with the president and other high ranking officials in the Trump campaign has tested positive for Covid-19. Trump is now in quarantine. Presumably, this will last for two weeks.

This is obviously huge for several reasons.

First off, Trump will be limited in his campaign rallies, which he counts on for drumming up support. Two weeks of the four remaining. Not a good thing for the campaign.

More importantly, this pushes Covid-19 to the forefront of the election issues, which is probably appropriate. Biden was already viewed as much more qualified to handle this issue among voters. And with Trump's apparent lack of personal safeguards, that will probably shift opinion further. Trump has tried to act as if Covid is behind us... that just became a much tougher sell.

There is also the possibility of Trump becoming very ill. Trump has significant risk factors. He's an overweight senior citizen. If his health is in jeapordy at the time of the election, will voters turn out in the same numbers, knowing they may well be casting a vote for Pence? Pence is not the same kind of populist icon.

And of course there is the possibility of Trump dying as 200,000 Americans have. If so, the republicans would have to nominate a replacement. This would almost certainly lead to a Biden landslide and would probably give the Democracts a huge boost in Senate races. There is also the question of what happens to ballots already cast, assuming Trump would be the nominee. Technically they are voting for the electors, so in theory it shouldn't make the difference, but I don't know the legalities.

It's a race between two elderly men in a pandemic. The chances of one of them becoming ill is a real concern, and for Trump, it's more immediate because we know he's been in close contact with at least one person with Covid. This could either be a huge story, or it could decide the election.



Trump and Melania just tested positive to Covid-19

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/2/trump-tested-for-covid-19-after-close-aide-diagnosed-with-virus

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/hope-hicks-positive-coronavirus/index.html

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 02 October 2020